3.5-ton satellite falling back to Earth

January 30, 2002 Posted: 10:12 PM EST (0312 GMT)

By Richard Stenger
CNN Sci-Tech

(CNN) -- A retired satellite with no onboard steering system should re -enter Earth's atmosphere within hours and leave a trail of debris in its wake, NASA cautioned Wednesday.

The defunct space telescope will tumble into the atmosphere Wednesday at about 11 p.m. ET, NASA scientists predicted.

Most of the doomed satellite will burn up in the atmosphere, but a handful of metal chunks could survive, ranging from four pounds to 100 pounds (1.8 kg to 45 kg), NASA space flight engineers said.

Fragments of the 3.5-ton orbiter could scatter along a trail extending up to 625 miles (1,000 km) long, somewhere in the middle latitudes on either side of the equator, according to NASA.

Predictions of when and where the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) will drop from orbit remain sketchy because it will fall in an uncontrolled manner. As of Wednesday evening, EUVE was about 100 miles (160 km) above Earth, but is losing about 15.5 miles (25 km) of altitude each day.

VIDEO Where EUVE might fall and what it looks like in space  (MPEG / 1M) Courtesy: Analytical Graphics, Inc   DANGER ZONE Target area extends along either side of Equator.     Mission at a glance Satellite: Extreme Ultraviolet Energy Explorer Weight: 7,000 pounds (3,200 kilograms) Lifetime: Launched in 1992 from Cape Canaveral, EUVE conducted observations until 2000 Instruments: Three scanning telescopes and a deep sky survey spectrometer Highlights: Offered new insights into comets, white dwarfs and the atmospheres of stars

It is expected to begin breaking up when it descends to within 50 miles (80 km), take four or five final 90-minute laps around Earth and then re-enter the atmosphere.

The re-entry window extends along the middle latitudes, from as far north as Orlando, Florida, and as far south as Brisbane, Australia.

The danger area covers parts of Florida, South and Central America, the Caribbean, much of Africa, South Asia and Indonesia. Major cities in the red zone include Miami, Florida; Mexico City, Mexico; and Bangkok, Thailand.

Trying to peg the bulls-eye on the planet has frustrated NASA. The space agency suggested early Wednesday that EUVE chunks would fall in the South Pacific. Hours later, it speculated that they would land east of South America.

"Based on the latest … predictions and the predicted debris field it is believed the heavier objects will fall harmlessly into the Atlantic Ocean," reported the Web site of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

The U.S. Space Command in Colorado Springs, Colorado, which tracks almost 9,000 objects in orbit, declined to conjecture on where it would land.

"Quite frankly, they're predictions and there are so many variables we can't control," said Maj. Barry Venable, U.S. Space Command spokesman.

Launched in 1992, EUVE was the first space observatory dedicated to studying extreme ultraviolet light. The $215 million satellite lasted much longer than its intended three years, studying celestial objects first for NASA and later the University of California, Berkeley, until it ceased operations one year ago.

In contrast to EUVE's uncontrolled descent, NASA in 2000 safely guided the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory into the ocean because the 17-ton craft had an onboard steering system.

Likewise, in 2001, Russian ground controllers relied on similar means to coax the 135-ton Mir space station, the heaviest object in Earth orbit besides the moon, into its watery grave without a hitch.

The most massive NASA spacecraft to re-enter the atmosphere in an uncontrolled descent was the 78-ton Skylab space station, which in 1979 scattered debris in the Indian Ocean and an isolated stretch of Western Australia.

Orbital debris has never been known to have injured a human, but legend has it a chunk of Skylab brought an untimely end to an Australian cow.

Russia: US Satellite Shot a Weapons Test February 16, 2008

Saturday, February 16, 2008

It is going to be difficult to match Noah and the crew at Danger Room in their coverage of the intercept of US 193 shoot down, they are doing a masterful job, but there are a few things we feel we can add to the discussion.

We are not really interested in the politics, people will complain about anything, bottom line there is no treaty violation here nor was there a treaty violation by China. China's only mistake was not to warn everyone else what they were doing, something the Bush administration has done which is what has generated the criticism in the first place. The political aspects are a waste of time, in reality this is the first thing this administration has done in regards to any space program that has caught our attention, that it is military related should surprise nobody.

From our perspective, we note the Navy specific events that are unfolding in this shoot down, starting with the plan.

The Navy has issued orders to USS Lake Erie (CG 70), USS Decatur (DDG 73), and USS Russell (DDG 59) to take out the satellite. All three ships have the AEGIS technology to fire the SM-3, and all three ships have been involved in previous AEGIS ballistic missile defense tests, with both the USS Lake Erie (CG 70) and USS Decatur (DDG 73) successfully shooting down a test target. Additionally, USNS Observation Island (T-AGM 23) will track the satellite and collect information for the intercept, including the evaluation of the debris field. We believe the USS Lake Erie (CG 70) will be the shooter, Capt. Randall Hendrickson has commanded four previous AEGIS BMD tests and is the most experienced Captain in the Navy in the ballistic missile defense mission.

According to CNN, three SM-3s have been modified for the intercept.
 

"They want the period of a day or two to assess the effect of the first missile ... to probably get an orbit or two, to get an understanding of what effect the first intercept had on the satellite before launching another interceptor," Ham said.

While some might assume this is because the SM-3 will miss, we are thinking this might be for a second shot because one may not be enough. There is a suggestion the fuel tank with the hydrazine is the primary target. That may be true, but it seems to us the secondary target should be the Radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) that needs to be broken into smaller pieces as well to insure burn up.

Another reason we believe the Navy may take more than one shot is the details and requirements. Jeffery Lewis describes the details.

1. The intercept will occur at 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles)
2. The mass of the satellite is 2,300 kg (5,000 pounds)
3. The mass of the interceptor is 20 kg. (From CBO)
4. The closing velocity will be 9.8 km/s (22,000 mph), suggesting a virtually head-on collision.

The satellite is about the size of a greyhound bus. The SM-3 KEI warhead unleashes about the same kinetic force of a 10 ton truck hitting a wall at 600 mph. While it is possible one shot will work, it is also more than possible the first hit will shred everything on the satellite except for the hardened hydrazine tank and Radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG), or more likely knock out one or the other, which will force a second shot.

The SM-3 is designed to bring down ballistic missiles with the desire to prevent accuracy of weapons of war, but we note SM-3 tests in the past have not completely shredded ballistic missiles, instead shattering the intercepted portion of the missile leaving some large pieces to be thrown harmlessly into the ocean. It is a very effective system for that type of interception, but for the purposes of shattering a large satellite into tiny pieces, we aren't so sure.

It has been suggested this will become a new capability of AEGIS. Maybe, but not for a long time. AEGIS BMD is largely misunderstood, or not understood, so many assumptions made by the press and even ballistics observers is done in ignorance or with speculation. They Navy currently operates 17 cruisers and destroyers with AEGIS ballistic missile defense, but only 3 cruisers and 6 destroyers can actually shoot down a ballistic missile, with the rest only capable of tracking targets.

For AEGIS BMD accuracy, more than one ship is required, what is sometimes referred to as a tracker and a shooter. They share information to confirm tracking data, and the design is such that either ship can be the terminal intercept guidance platform, but to be accurate multiple tracking systems are required. The choice of three ships is not unexpected, this allows for multiple trackers.

The 9 ships able to conduct intercept operate what is known as the 3.6 version of AEGIS ballistic missile defense. They are USS Lake Erie (CG 70), USS Shiloh (CG 67), USS Port Royal (CG 73), USS Decatur (DDG 73) , USS Stethem (DDG 63), USS Russell (DDG 59), USS John S. McCain (DDG 56), and USS Curtis Wilbur (DDG 54). The rest of the AEGIS ships converted to AEGIS ballistic missile defense use what is known as Long Range Surveillance & Tracking (LRS&T), also known as AEGIS BMD 3.0. As of today there are 17 total AEGIS ships converted to either version 3.6 or 3.0, but we only know the identity of 16.

The problem with version 3.0 is that ballistic missile defense is a toggle, a ship can either conduct normal AEGIS defense roles against conventional missiles, or ballistic missile defense, not both at the same time. The attack on the HMS Sheffield (D80) is a case study in why either/or capabilities are dangerous.

The SM-3 Block IA was thought to only have a range of over 500 kilometers and max altitude of 160 kilometers, but the details of this intercept describe the intercept to take place at an altitude of 240 kilometers. This is a previously undisclosed detail of the SM-3 Block IA, Using the data collected by Jeffery Lewis, one can imply that the actual maximum altitude is much higher.

Finally, we want to highlight that AEGIS BMD isn't the only capability that could shoot down this satellite, there were several options, so the reason the Navy was chosen should be highlighted. Quite honestly, it is the only system that works as advertised. This blog will not hide the fact we believe the Missile Defense Agency needs to be imploded, we are anything but impressed with what has been produced to date. When it comes to missile defense it has been a wasteful spending juggernaut, but has spent hardly any of its budget investing in AEGIS ballistic missile defense, instead paying extraordinary amounts of money for 'reach for the moon' capabilities that have continuously been over budget with a lack of justified results for the cost.

Between FY1995 and FY2007, the Missile Defense Agency had invested a total of $7,012,400,000 in AEGIS ballistic missile defense, an average of a around $585M per year. Compared to the total MDA budget, this is an incredibly small annual percentage. Between FY08-FY13 the MDA intends to spend about 7%, around $6.5B of its estimate $51B total budget on AEGIS ballistic missile defense. AEGIS ballistic missile defense has long been the red-headed step child of the Missile Defense Agency budget, and yet in the door walks this scenario, and the MDA is calling on the Navy to carry the water for them and produce a success story, so they can get more money from Congress for other missile defense programs.

I hope someone in the media picks up on that fact, it is a big part of this story that needs to be told.

Additional observations by SteelJaw Scribe.
Track the satellite in real-time here, refresh, map at the bottom of page.

http://www.heavens-above.com/usa193.aspx?

 

Satellite return may be challenging

U.S. military hopes to destroy out-of-control spy satellite before it reaches earth

BY NANCY HOGLAND |
 February 17, 2008

Air Force Gen. Gene Renuart, who heads the U.S. Northern Command, said an out-of-control spy satellite, estimated to be about the size of a school bus -- is falling to Earth and is expected to land in late February or early March – possibly somewhere on this continent.

“We're aware that this satellite is out there,” Renuart said. “We're aware it is a fairly substantial size. And we know there is at least some percentage that it could land on ground as opposed to in the water. As it looks like it might re-enter into the North American area, then the U.S. military along with the Homeland Security Department and the Federal Emergency Management Agency will either have to deal with the impact or assist Canadian or Mexican authorities.”

In an attempt to avoid such a situation, Gen. James Cartwright, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced last week that a modified version of the Aegis Sea-Based Missile Defense system will be used in an attempt to intercept the falling U.S. satellite and destroy it before it hits the earth.

President George Bush approved the attempt, military officials said, because the satellite’s fuel tank might survive a crash and spread the rocket fuel, hydrazine, possibly endangering humans. The shoot-down attempt will occur some time after the NASA Shuttle returns this week.

The satellite, typically used to gather visual information about adversarial governments and terror groups and to survey damage from hurricanes, fires and other natural disasters, was launched in December 2006. However, it lost power and its central computer system failed shortly after take-off.

Unfortunately, if the missile intercept is not successful, it will be difficult to predict where the point of impact will be until the satellite falls to about 59 miles above the Earth and enters the atmosphere. It will then begin to burn up, with flares visible from the ground, said Ted Molczan, a Canadian satellite tracker. From that point on, he said, it will take about 30 minutes to fall.

According to Chuck May, the manager of the Planning and Disaster Recover Branch of Missouri State Emergency Management (SEMA), this short notice would make it next to impossible to warn people of the impending danger.

“If NASA or Department of Defense officials learned that chunks of the satellite were going to hit anywhere in the U.S., of course, they would do what they could to notify people, but obviously it would all tie down to how much warning we had,” he said. “With only 30 minutes notice, I don’t know what could be done. If county or law enforcement officials could be notified in time to warn people, they would. But there are so many ‘ifs,’ it’s hard to say exactly what measures could be taken.”

The military plan to attempt to intercept the satellite has been hailed by advocates of missile defense systems as a prime example of the peaceful benefits of the weapons. “The investment and the proven technology of our country's missile defense systems has given our nation and our military an option which it never had before to protect human life globally from falling objects from space,” said Riki Ellison, president of the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance. “Our country's investment and leadership internationally in Missile Defense provides global options that make our world a safer place,” he added.

But the plan has drawn criticism from those who see it as a way to justify anti-satellite missile systems. "In the history of the space age, there has not been a single human being who has been harmed by man-made objects falling from space," Michael Krepon, co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center, told the Washington Post. "There has to be another reason behind this.”

However, if the missile is not able to shoot down the satellite and it actually hits a populated area, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and disaster response organizations may have to respond.

“With a couple exceptions, emergency response plans are set up to respond to all hazards. The exceptions would be catastrophic events that are area specific – in Missouri we have additional plans in the event of a New Madrid fault quake; Florida’s plans include hurricane response. However, no one at either the state or federal level has developed anything specifically dealing with incoming asteroids or other items falling from the sky,” May said.

Matt Hackworth, communications officer with Church World Service, a relief ministry umbrella for 35 Protestant, orthodox and Anglican denominations, said his group prepares for disasters of every kind.

“Our job is to respond to disasters of any kind – natural or technological. We do have measures in place to work remotely in case New York, our headquarters, was impacted. But we aren’t exactly ‘disaster specific.’

“Besides, look at Greensburg, Kansas. Their claim to fame was that they were hit by a meteorite. They weren’t obliterated by an asteroid, but instead by a tornado.”

Asteroids have, however, done their share of damage. In 1908, an asteroid exploded in the air above Siberia, flattening thousands of square miles of forest. More than 150 meteor crashes have carved out craters in Arizona, Missouri and on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. They continue to keep sky watchers glued to their telescopes.

In the past few years, scientists and astronomers had been keeping a close eye on two asteroids in particular – one named 1997 XF11 and on another dubbed 2004 MN4.

In 1998, XF11 was originally thought to be on a collision course with Earth with a direct hit expected on Oct. 26, 2028. However, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), which has closely monitored its orbits over the past 10 years, now estimates XF11’s passage at 591,000 miles away or about 2.5 times farther than the moon.

In December 2004, scientists set the odds at 1 in 37 that the giant space rock 2004 MN4 would slam into earth on April 13, 2029. And while the asteroid will still be making a close brush, at less than 30,000 miles, scientists said additional observations had reduced the chance of impact to zero.

Although scientists with the NASA’s Near Earth Object Program report they are not concerned about the two asteroids, or any of the other 108 on the watch list of “potentially hazardous objects,” they, along with the U.S. Space Command and the Department of Defense continue to refine a process that will allow them to gather and analyze date regarding impending Earth impacts from asteroids or comets, assess possible damage stemming from such an impact and to notify top officials. They are expected to also evaluate possible evacuations or emergency preparations.

In the meantime, scientists agree that it is only a matter of time before another comet hits home.

“It's like a game of cosmic darts,” said astronomer Clark Chapman on the PBS show Nova. “It could just as likely happen tomorrow as some day 300,000 years from now.”

And if falling satellites and asteroids aren’t enough to keep you awake at night, scientists are looking upward, waiting and watching for the next major solar storm, which has the potential of wiping out all communications.

At more than 869,919 miles wide, the sun makes up approximately 99.86 percent of the mass of the entire solar system. The total energy radiated by the sun averages 383 billion trillion kilowatts, the amount of energy generated by the explosion of 100 billion tons of TNT every second.

However, the energy released by the sun is not always constant. Once in a while, the sun releases an even larger amount of energy with intense magnetic fields in the form of a solar flare – an explosive burst of hot gasses.

In 1859, solar observers noted the development of numerous sunspots on the sun's surface. What followed was an explosive release of magnetically charged energy that reached the earth’s surface in hours. The magnetic fields, in direct opposition with the earth’s magnetic fields, were so intense that there were severe interruptions of communications systems. Telegraph wires were burned to a crisp and created wildfires as they dropped to the ground.

Since that time, other solar storms have caused major malfunctions to communications satellites and affected television, radio and telephone signals.

Hackworth said such an event, on the back of another disaster, could be disastrous to organizations that rely on communications.

“Can you imagine a disaster where you couldn’t make a conference call to coordinate the response? The disaster world relies on communication. More and more we rely on technology to assist us in our work. If we had a major breakdown in communications, whether it be from huge solar flares or from an EMP bomb, we would have massive problems,” he said.

http://heasarc.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/euve/euve.html
 

THIS MAY BE THE MOST IMPORTANT THREAD YOU'VE EVER READ! THIS IS NO JOKE AND THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IS 100% ACCURATE AND HONEST.
 
This thread was started on a blog about two weeks ago giving updates on the falling satellite. For some unknown reason people didn't pay attention, so I am asking you to please read what I have to say here. I am going to discuss a couple of different concerns along with updates on usa-193'S 'strike-zone'. I have an extremely reliable & trustworthy source for inside information. This info is coming from a family member (1st cousin) who is a very high-ranking official with the New York JTTF (Joint Terrorism Task Force). USA-193 is currently the greatest known threat/risk to our country!

[link to www.fbi.gov]

The only reason my cousin is willing to share this information is because of the extremely high threat risk associated with USA-193. I don't have any 'shocking' news, but I have news that confirms a lot of speculations.

First I will give an update on who's 'at-risk' as of my last briefing given to me at 0900, 2.17.08. The following info doesn't account for a missile strike, this is strictly where US-193 is due to land with no intereference. The area of concern still remains the Pacific Northwest. The current warning ranges from Eugene Oregon to Kamloops BC (Canada). That's just the north-south range. Current models show less than .005% chance of a harmless water strike (currently a land strike is imminent). The models show that there is a warning for Western Idaho and parts of NW Nevada. These warnings only show the current crash zone for USA-193, not the anticipated debris field! Obviously debris can come down hundreds if-not 'thousands' of miles away. Currently there are no parts of Northern California in the 'red-zone'.

This is info that the govt follows and believes. I am told by my cousin that if something goes wrong with the missile strike or there remains a 'high-risk' after the missile strike that the govt will ONLY give us a 26-28 minute warning! Obviously this is unacceptable.

I do have some info that I cannot share, but it is the most important info and you must pay attention closely! We are going to play a very simple 'read-between-the-lines' game here as I'm sure it will reveal the info I can't share. Please take notice that this info was confirmed to me this morning and isn't speculation. I swear to everyone out there, that this is quite possibly the most important thread on GLP!!!

Here it goes...

We all know that the Pentagon has listed 'Hydrazine' (rocket fuel) as being onboard the satellite and a major concern. They have also listed a second substance/material as being a major concern and that's 'Beryllium'. Now this is extremely odd as beryllium isn't a harmful material and is used in making shuttles & satellites, so why list it as a major concern?

Here's why!.. (from Wiki - complete link @ bottom of blurb)

Nuclear

Beryllium is used in nuclear weapon designsas the outer layer of the pit of the primary stage, surrounding the fissile material. It is a good pusher for implosion, and the best possible neutron reflector, reducing the critical mass needed for a fission chain reaction and increasing the proportion of fuel that fissions, while itself adding little mass to the weapon. It is a poor tamper because of its low mass, but this is unimportant in fusion-boosted fission weapons. As a light element with few electrons, the fission explosion completely ionizes it quickly, making it transparent to X-rays and letting the energy from a primary fission explosion escape for radiation implosion of a secondary fusion stage.

To learn more about 'Beryllium' (and how it, normally, isn't harmful) click here, [link to en.wikipedia.org]

I have noticed that some news articles pertaining to the 'Beryllium' factor have been removed from the web. In particular one that was directly from an AirForce General who stated on 1/29/08 that the satellite could hit the USA. There are still articles and videos that show the Pentagon stating that the beryllium is a grave concern. It ONLY makes sense with the above pasted Wikipedia article.

Obviously the US Govt would NEVER admit to the beryllium being on-board for the above mentioned reason, as we have already gotten heat from Russia and China.

It also explains why they are taking a shot at the satellite WAY earlier than previously stated. The originally wanted to take a shot 'MOMENTS' before it hit the atmosphere so the debris would cause troubles in space. They are now planning on taking their first shot 10-14 days sooner than planned. I do believe it is however going to hit sooner than March (as they stated), but this is just a feeling from tracking it live online. There are a couple of great sites for tracking it. My favorite site was working beautifully, but now only works about 40% of the time (geez wonder why that is!). Make sure you sign up for both these sites and really explore them, as you can track and map 'visible passes' for your exact location. I have posted the links at the bottom of this thread.

Thousands of satellites have fallen from the sky, hell thousands have fallen from the sky in the past 5-years. NEVER has a single satellite gotten this type of attention, especially from the President of the United States (and other countries). The government is doing 'just enough' to make us aware that there 'may' be danger, but once again are keeping huge secrets from us. The bottom line is that there is a great chance for substantial loss of life and people need to know the truth. I beg of you to keep a close eye on this! I will post updates as soon as I get them.

www.n2yo.com - By far the best site I have found, as it tracks USA-193 LIVE! Please send them e-mails as I have in hopes they fix whatever problems they are having with the site. In the description of USA-193 they mention the 'beryllium'.
www.heavens-above.com - Another great site, but not nearly as good as n2yo.com.

I thought I was signed in when I posted this, but I guess not. Here's some more info from www.n2yo.com

I am able to get onto the homepage, but when I go to USA-193 it's not working. It's not showing the satellite nor is it showing my info, as it was in the past. I do believe the government is raising hell on this great site.

NORAD ID: 29651
Int'l Code: 2006-057A
Perigee: 407 km
Apogee: 421 km
Inclination: 40°
Period: 92.8 min
Launch date: 2006-12-14
Source: United States (US)

Comments: USA 193 is an American military satellite that was launched from Vandenberg AFB at 21:00 UT on 14 December 2006. It is a highly classified spacecraft, owned and operated by the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO). No further details are available. In January 2008, reports emerged that a U.S. spy satellite, again probably this one, was in a deteriorating orbit, and that the object was expected to crash into the Earth within weeks. Early reports indicated that the satellite could contain "hazardous materials", probably hydrazine, and possibly beryllium,though there was also some speculation that the satellite might have a "nuclear" power core, i.e. a radioisotope thermoelectric generator. Defense consultant John E. Pike dismissed this as "unlikely". (according to Wikipedia) On January 29, 2008, an Associated Press story quoted a U.S. Air Force general as saying that contingency plans were being made since intact pieces of the satellite "might re-enter into the North American area".