China May Put Man in Orbit
OCTOBER 15TH, 2003
updated October 15th, 2005
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| Shenzhou-6 Mission In Final
Preparation For Possible Launch On October 13
October 06, 2005
The Shenzhou-6 mission is in final preparation with the integration of
the spacecraft to its launcher this week at the launch site, and the
expected arrival of the six-crew candidates from Beijing.
As most people in China still enjoy the
weeklong holiday following National Day celebrations on Oct. 1,
personnel at JSLC only got a little time off from their busy prelaunch
work schedule. |
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The stated plans for China’s manned spaceflight program go no
farther than the development of small space stations serviced by
Shenzhou spacecraft, not—as of yet—lunar expeditions. (credit:
CNSA)
Red Moon. Dark Moon.by Dwayne A. Day
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| The more immediate question concerns whether it is true that the Chinese intend to try to send humans to the Moon in the near future. How can we know that it is true? |
Speaking to another reporter for Aviation Week (which publishes Aerospace Daily), Calvert phrased it a little differently, stating that his information was not classified. “Even if we follow the president’s vision and we’re back to the Moon by 2020, I also serve on the Armed Service Committee, so I have the ability to look at a lot of things,” he said. “And looking at things that are not classified, more than likely the Chinese will be on the Moon before that. I would rather be on the Moon to greet the Chinese rather than going to the Moon and have the Chinese greet us.” This statement appeared in the magazine that showed up in mailboxes about five days after the Aerospace Daily article.
A “race” with China could actually be a good thing—it is better for China to spend its money on a technology project with no military implication than ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan or Los Angeles. But set aside the question of the desirability of a Moon race with China for a moment. The more immediate question concerns whether it is true that the Chinese intend to try to send humans to the Moon in the near future. How can we know that it is true? To help answer this question we can look to history, specifically the last time that something like this happened.
Soon after Yuri Gagarin’s flight in April 1961, President Kennedy asked his advisors to consider how the United States could respond. They evaluated a number of options, including a manned lunar mission, and consulted the intelligence community. The intelligence community indicated that there was as yet no evidence that the Soviet Union had a similar program. Kennedy approved the lunar goal in part because Soviet advantages in rocketry would largely be negated because neither side at the time had a rocket large enough to undertake a lunar mission.
In fall 1962, NASA Deputy Administrator Hugh Dryden met with officials from the CIA to discuss the possibility that the Soviet Union might have a lunar program. Somewhat surprisingly, in this case it was Dryden who told the CIA what to look for, rather than the CIA telling him what they had found. The key, Dryden said, would be a very large rocket. Look for that, and you will have strong hints that they have started a lunar program.
Over the next year the CIA produced several reports indicating what Soviet developments would indicate a lunar landing program. These included a large launch vehicle, advanced upper stages, improved guidance systems, improved life support systems (of longer duration than tested to date), radiation shielding, and re-entry techniques. Another precursor would be “a considerable amount of unmanned lunar exploration,” the CIA said.
It took the CIA several years to determine if the Soviet Union had a lunar landing program. Although the Soviets started their program in 1963, declassified National Intelligence Estimate documents from 1965 and 1967 still contained qualifiers. American reconnaissance satellites had detected a massive construction project at the Soviet Tyura-Tam launch range beginning in 1963. Intelligence analysts soon identified it as the launch site for a powerful new rocket. But even four years later they were not certain if that rocket was for launching a Moon mission or a large manned space station. A major problem for interpreters was the slow pace of construction that they observed at the facility. Analysts kept scratching their heads: if the Soviets really were racing Apollo, they were not completing their launch facility fast enough to win. This made little sense. Why try at all if you are not trying to win? What they did not know was that the Soviet program was fractured and poorly managed, and that Soviet officials were lying to their superiors about their position in the race. Many of them hoped that the Americans would stumble.
| Somewhat surprisingly, in this case it was NASA’s Hugh Dryden who told the CIA what to look for, rather than the CIA telling him what they had found. The key, Dryden said, would be a very large rocket. Look for that, and you will have strong hints that the Soviets have started a lunar program. |
Not all of the relevant records from this era have been declassified. It is not possible to determine at what point CIA analysts concluded that the Soviet Union did have an actual lunar landing program, as opposed to simply a very large rocket that could also be used to launch a space station. They did achieve many of the technological goals prerequisite to a lunar landing, but there was no direct evidence of a lunar program for a long time. However, at some point in either 1967 or 1968 the CIA either obtained covert information on the Soviet program, or observed Soviet orbital flights that looked exactly like lunar operations, and changed their adjectives from “possibly” to “probably,” and then to “definitely.” By then it was apparent that the Soviets would lose the race to the Moon.
All of this analysis took place inside the US intelligence community. This information was certainly distributed outside of that community. NASA administrator James Webb certainly knew about it. Select members of Congress were also aware of it. The public, however, had no proof of any of it, other than occasional assertions by Webb and members of Congress that the Moon race was real. Pictures of the massive rocket complex inside the Soviet Union remained classified for decades, and many outsiders doubted that the Soviet Union ever had a manned lunar program.
Watching China’s space program for signs of a lunar program will in many ways be similar to what happened in the 1960s because the physics of getting to the Moon have not changed. In many other ways, though, it will be much easier, both for government officials and the American public, to monitor the signs and determine if the Chinese do indeed have a manned lunar landing program.
For starters, compared to the Soviets, the Chinese are far more open about their space program in general, and their human space program in particular. In fact, Chinese television showed a lengthy documentary on first taikonaut Yang Liwei’s flight, complete with behind the scenes footage of his training. (The program is now available on DVD and is fascinating viewing even if you do not understand Chinese.) The Chinese press also regularly publishes interviews with space officials who talk about upcoming plans.
Few Americans regularly surf Chinese websites, but there is a surprising amount of information on Chinese space plans on the web, particularly their human space program. What is lacking are both fluent Chinese speakers who can translate what they find into English, and people who are actually interested in what the Chinese are doing in their space program to seek out information. One person who regularly searches for information on the Chinese space program and who writes about it in English is Chen Lan, operator of the Go Taikonauts! web site. Lan says that there is no indication from any source in China that the country has a manned lunar program. What China does have is a robotic lunar program that many westerners frequently mistake for a human lunar program.
| According to Lan, China has slowed down its program from the already lethargic development pace. After four unmanned test flights capped by the launch of Shenzhou 5, all taking place a year apart, Shenzhou 6 will fly two years after Shenzhou 5. |
As Lan explains, the Chinese human spaceflight program has for several years now had three primary goals. The first was to successfully orbit a human. The second goal is to develop a small, man-tended space station. And the third goal is to develop a small, permanent space station. Reports that China intends to land a human on the Moon, or even send humans on a circumlunar mission, are easily dismissed as poor translations of Chinese language news reports.
According to Lan, China has slowed down its program from the already lethargic development pace. After four unmanned test flights capped by the launch of Shenzhou 5, all taking place a year apart, Shenzhou 6 will fly two years after Shenzhou 5, and Shenzhou 7, which is supposed to feature the first Chinese spacewalk, is now scheduled for 2007. Shenzhou 8 and 9 are scheduled to feature the first rendezvous between two manned craft. But that is not scheduled for 2008. China’s goal is to field the man-tended space station by 2010 and a permanent space station sometime after that.
Compared to the United States or the Soviet Union at the dawn of the space age, China is taking longer but fewer strides. The United States flew men in space nine times before making a spacewalk compared to China’s plan to do it by their third flight. However, such an approach limits their ability to gain experience that is certainly needed for more complex goals. It also raises the possibility that knowledge is being lost in the years between each flight.
Perhaps the Chinese have kept a manned lunar landing goal a secret. If so, what other signs of a lunar landing program should we watch for?
Just as during the 1960s lunar race, the Chinese will have to develop certain technologies and capabilities before they can send humans to the Moon. First and foremost would be a new large rocket. The largest Long March rocket is capable of launching about nine metric tons into low Earth orbit. The Chinese have announced plans to develop a “new generation launch vehicle” with a 25 metric ton capability—slightly larger than the American Delta 4 Heavy. It would be launched from a new launch range on Hainan Island.
This larger rocket would allow the Chinese to develop a circumlunar capability. They could launch two vehicles, link them up in orbit, and send them around the Moon. But such a vehicle is not really large enough for a lunar landing mission. Such an approach would require multiple launches and robotic rendezvous. The Chinese could certainly take this much different approach, but it would add a great deal of complexity to the effort. Integrating spacecraft is not an easy task, and it is easier to do it on the ground than in orbit. A lunar landing mission would most likely require a rocket with the capability of launching at least 50-80 metric tons and that would still require two launches and an Earth orbit rendezvous. That rocket would be significantly larger than anything that the Chinese have yet built. It would also require a substantial ground facility as well as a large assembly building and two launch pads. Although the Chinese have reportedly studied a launch vehicle capable of launching up to 70 metric tons, they have provided no indication that they intend to build it. If they intend to put humans on the Moon in the next thirteen years, then they will have to start major construction in the next few years.
Here, too, we have a considerable advantage compared to the 1960s. Today there are commercial imagery satellites capable of taking photos at higher resolution than was available to the US intelligence community for most of the 1960s. Even lower resolution imagery would show the telltale signature of construction of massive new launch facilities at Hainan.
Even if no individuals or news organizations pay for such images to be taken, the fact that unclassified photographs can be taken means that the United States government could quickly make such information publicly available. The Chinese may not talk about their plans, but their actions will be easy to spot.
| Today there are commercial imagery satellites capable of taking photos at higher resolution than was available to the US intelligence community for most of the 1960s. Even lower resolution imagery would show the telltale signature of construction of massive new launch facilities. |
In addition to technical capability, the Chinese also need operational capability. They need to develop manned orbital spaceflight and related techniques such as orbital rendezvous of two piloted spacecraft. So far the Chinese have demonstrated an extreme conservatism with their human spaceflight program. Presumably they would want to gain confidence in their equipment and their techniques before embarking on a risky mission. So the rendezvous mission scheduled for 2008 is insufficient to give the Chinese confidence in that technical requirement. In addition, they will also have to operate a manned spacecraft for at least a week.
Based upon Apollo and Soviet experience, there are two primary technological developments for a lunar mission that require the most time and effort. One is the large launch vehicle, which is impossible to hide from spying satellites. The other is the lunar lander. As Apollo demonstrated, the lunar lander proved to be a difficult spacecraft to build, and its construction ultimately determined the pace of the program. The Soviet lunar lander was developed entirely in secret and its details were unknown in the West for over two decades. However, the CIA was aware of its existence, and if the Soviets had progressed to testing it in lunar orbit, more would have become known about it. It is entirely possible for China to begin early development of a lunar lander in secret, but they will not be able to conceal its flight-testing program.
At a time when the Chinese have given every indication of slowing down their human spaceflight program, with flights occurring only once every two years, they will have to substantially change their behavior if they intend to beat the United States (back) to the Moon. And if China chooses to launch humans to the Moon, they cannot do it in secret. When they start, we will be able to watch.
The mission, which reportedly could last up to five days, is more ambitious and riskier than China's first manned space flight two years ago, which lasted less than 22 hours.
The manned space program is a high-profile prestige project for the ruling Communist Party. The 2003 flight made China only the third nation, after Russia and the United States, to send a human into orbit on its own.
A rocket carrying the Shenzhou VI capsule will blast off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert of China's orthwest, the official Xinhua News Agency said Tuesday. It didn't give a time but said there would be a live television broadcast from the launch site.
Xinhua said a crew had been picked from a field of six finalists but didn't give their names.
The flight this week will be more complicated than the 2003 mission, according to state media.
Reports say the two astronauts will take off their 22-pound space suits to travel back and forth between the two halves of their vessel -- a re-entry capsule and an orbiter that is to stay aloft after they land.
They will also conduct experiments, Xinhua said, but details weren't immediately released.
Meanwhile, China on Tuesday said it opposes deploying weapons in outer space and asserted that its ambitions in the field are strictly peaceful.
"The Chinese government has consistently advocated the peaceful use of outer space and opposed the weaponization of outer space," said Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan at a regular news briefing. "We do not wish to see any form of weapons in outer space, so we reaffirm that our space flight program is an important element of mankind's peaceful utilization of outer space."
In a break with the space agency's typical secrecy, Xinhua said a live broadcast of the entire flight would be provided to foreign media. Earlier reports said the liftoff and space flight would be shown on Chinese television with a brief delay, possibly to allow authorities to cut the signal if anything goes wrong.
None of the 2003 space flight was shown live by Chinese television.
Foreign reporters are barred from the remote launch base in the Gobi Desert in China's northwest. A handful of Chinese journalists are to be on hand for the liftoff, but have been warned that they might be ordered to hand over any photos or video -- a possible image-control measure if anything goes wrong.
The Shenzhou -- or Divine Vessel -- capsule is based on Russia's three-seat Soyuz, though with extensive modifications. Space suits, life-support systems and other equipment are based on technology purchased from Russia.
China has had a rocketry program since the 1950s and fired its first satellite into orbit in 1970. It regularly launches satellites for foreign clients aboard its giant Long March boosters.
Copyright 2005 by The Associated Press. All rights reserved
| China to launch Shenzhou VI October 12-15 | |
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China will launch its second manned space mission between October 12 and 15, an aerospace official said Tuesday. The final launch time will depend on the weather conditions.
The craft is expected to land at a site in central Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, the official said, adding that the preparations for the launch are going smoothly. AFP Monday quoted an anonymous official from the technical department of the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center as saying that "It (launch time) is October 12 at 9 am." A travel agent taking domestic tourists to witness the launch said he had been advised to be at the site early Wednesday morning. The six astronauts shortlisted for the two-member mission have arrived at the launch pad in Inner Mongolia and Zhai Zhigang and Nie Haisheng are favorites to pilot the mission, reports said. Wang Yongzhi, chief designer of China's manned spaceflight program, said the two astronauts on Shenzhou-6 will for the first time enter into the orbital module from the re-entry capsule and live and work several days under microgravity conditions, Xinhua said. They will also for the first time carry out "scientific experiments with human participation in its real sense" in space, said Wang without deliberation. Liu Yu, commander in chief of the rocket system, said the rocket for Shenzhou-6 has much improvement in reliability and safety compared with the one for Shenzhou-5. "We have confidence in the quality of this rocket. We have the conditions and capability to fulfill this mission," said Liu. No plant seeds on Shenzhou VI Shenzhou VI will not carry any plant seeds, Liu Luxiang, director of the Centre for Space Breeding under the Beijing-based Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. The announcement came after media reports speculated that the spacecraft would carry seeds, animal semen or other experimental items for space mutation breeding.
"Since Shenzhou V, which took the first Chinese astronaut Yang Liwei 14 times around the earth for a 21-hour period in 2003, space experiments in China have been focusing on human activities in outer space," said Liu. The second manned space mission will carry two astronauts into orbit for five days, during which their physical reactions will be closely monitored. "If it were an unmanned spaceship or recoverable satellite, we might have put experimental things on it," said Liu, whose department selects seeds for outer space experimentation and allocates them to breeding nurseries after they are brought back. "An unmanned spaceship and a recoverable satellite could have a relatively looser security demand and could expose seeds to more cosmic radiation to cause a useful mutation," he said. "But as a manned capsule, the Shenzhou VI has a different structure to block radiation as much as possible, and strict measures are being taken to ensure its security." Liu had obtained evidence from other sources but refused to identify them, saying only: "China's style is to focus on one thing at a time." He also denied that the absence of seeds is due to limited space on the capsule. Since 1987, China has been keen on sending plant seeds about 200 to 400 kilometres above the earth to study genetic mutations and changes. A variety of seeds, including corn, lotus and watermelon, have travelled in space for up to two weeks in recoverable satellites or high-altitude balloons. The high radiation in space-mutated, or genetically-modified, seeds' DNA, may explain why peonies grown from "space seeds" are larger and more colourful than normal. The mutations may also explain jumbo bell peppers and fast-growing rice. In the past five years, the Centre for Space Breeding developed 12 rice and wheat variants that greatly increased grain output, according to a statement released last month by the centre. |
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Source：China Daily |
Thursday, October 13, 2005.
Chinese Astronauts Blast Off
By Stephanie HooJIUQUAN, China -- A rocket carrying two Chinese astronauts blasted off Wednesday from a base in China's desert northwest, returning the country's manned space program to orbit two years after its history-making first flight.
The mission, reportedly due to last up to five days, is an efforts by the communist government to declare its status as a rising world power with technological triumphs to match its rapid economic growth. It is only the third country to launch a human into orbit on its own, after Russia and the United States.
CHINA is developing selection criteria for
women astronauts, state media said today, following the launch of its
second manned mission. "Experts say the country's first group of female fighter pilots
may emerge from them, including the first female Chinese
astronaut," it said, offering new meaning to Chairman Mao Zedong's
remark that women hold up half the sky.
Shenzhou 6 is slated to land on Monday about 150 km north of Hohhot,
the capital of Inner Mongolia.
Its two astronauts, Fei Junlong and Nie Haisheng, lifted off on
Thursday for a five day flight but have supplies for seven days in case
the weather is uncooperative, Xinhua said.
Studies of the effect of space flight on women had begun, Xinhua news
agency cited Chen Shanguang, director of the China Astronaut Research
and Training Centre as saying.
Chinese researchers would have to make extensive studies, such as
developing new space suits, Xinhua said.
The United States routinely includes women in its space crews.
Shuttles Challenger and Columbia each had two female astronauts
aboard during their final, fatal missions.
An air force university was already accepting pilot trainees, the
official Xinhua news agency said.
| China witnesses great leaps in maritime space tracking |
| www.chinaview.cn 2005-10-16 20:20:37 |
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BEIJING, Oct. 16 (Xinhuanet) -- China's maritime space tracking technologies have achieved substantial progress over the past 27 years and reached the advanced levels in the world, an official in charge of the operation said Sunday. The maritime space surveying and controlling opera tion, which has been tracking China's second manned spacecraft Shenzhou-6 since the lift-off on Wednesday, has made a number of breakthroughs since it was initiated in 1978, according to Jian Shilong, director in charge of the program. China is able to carry out maritime measuring and controlling on objects at sea, under the surface of water, on international satellites, and manned spacecrafts, said Jian. However, during the initial stage, China was only able to measure and control objects at land, on the surface of water, domestic satellites and unmanned spacecrafts, he recalled. The operation, equipped with four "Yuanwang" tracking ships, has accomplished some 50 key scientific researches and tasks with no hitches or failures for the past 27 years. The "Yuanwang" ships have involved in China's past five Shenzhou space flight missions during 1999-2003, conducting measuring and controlling operations including the orbit transfer,attitude adjustment, video and audio transmission for China's first manned spacecraft Shenzhou-5 in 2003. The tracking ships have accomplished designed tasks, including orbit maintenance for the record-making Shenzhou-6, despite rough sea weather on Friday and Saturday. The four ships boast advanced technologies in terms of the functions and precision of measuring and controlling, automatization and reliability, said Jian. The ships and some 20 surveying stations on land jointly build up China's space telemetry network. Enditem |
| By Edward A. Gargan ASIA CORRESPONDENT September 30, 2003 Beijing - Legend has it that toward the end of the 15th century, a Chinese official named Wan Hu attached 30 rockets to a kite-like monoplane, lashed himself firmly into a seated position and ordered the rocket fuses lit. There was a colossal, blinding detonation, and both Wan and his craft took off. Legend does not tell us where the mythic Wan landed, but his supposed exploit has bolstered popular claims to China as the land of the first attempt at manned space flight. Now, five centuries later, China is on the verge of launching an astronaut or two, according to hints dropped in the Chinese press and by Chinese diplomats abroad. This would make it only the third nation to put a man into space, after Russia and the United States. Indeed, with the celebration of China's national day, Oct. 1, tomorrow, some Chinese journalists are feverishly speculating that the first mission may be launched on the day commemorating 54 years of communist rule. Others, also claiming inside knowledge, confidently predict a launch date of Oct. 17. "This is about 90 percent political and 10 percent technical," said David Baker, the editor of Jane's Space Directory, the British space and weapons analytical group. "It's an important signal about what China would like the world to think about its technical virility." Still, unlike the American manned space program that was minutely covered by the media from its outset, the Chinese program remains largely secret, with only occasional tidbits doled out to the official press. If reports in Hong Kong newspapers are true, the leading candidate to go into space is a pilot named Chen Long, who was trained by Chinese air force pilots at the Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut center in Russia. Dubbed the "Shenzhou," or "Divine Boat" or "Divine Vessel" by the government, the tea-cup-shaped craft resembles the Russian Soyuz capsules, although modified somewhat, particularly in the area of emergency escapes, according to Jane's. Some space analysts even suggest the Shenzhou is largely of Chinese design and technologically superior to the Soyuz. For a country so poor it remains a major recipient of help from multilateral donors, including the World Bank, China's space program is expensive. Media reports suggest it has cost taxpayers 19 billion yuan, or $2.3 billion to date - about half what NASA spends annually on its shuttle program - a considerable sum in a country where tens of millions of rural villagers subsist on less than $100 a year. A successful launch, however, would admit China to an exclusive scientific circle. It has established its presence as a major participant in space exploration and technology, however, with 50 orbiting satellites and successful space launches to date. Some analysts say it is not pure science and exploration that is driving China. The Pentagon in July delivered a report to Congress bluntly assaying the manned space program: "While one of the strongest immediate motivations for this program appears to be political prestige, China's ... efforts almost certainly will contribute to improved military space systems in the 2010-2020 timeframe." The report quoted a Chinese naval captain, Shen Zhongchang, as writing: "The mastery of outer space will be a requisite for military victory, with outer space becoming the new commanding heights for combat." What little can be gleaned from Chinese publications suggests that a Chinese astronaut is to orbit Earth for less than 24 hours after being launched from the Jiuquan Space Launch Center in northwestern Gansu Province. The mission is to be controlled by the newly built Beijing Aerospace Command and Control Center, 30 miles northwest of the capital. So far, the Chinese have launched four unmanned Shenzhou capsules into space, the most recent parachuting to land in the Gobi Desert of Inner Mongolia on Jan. 5 after 108 revolutions of Earth, a seven-day journey. That mission, according to Chinese media reports, carried a full-sized dummy in a space suit, along with 52 science projects, and was declared a complete success by then-President Jiang Zemin.
Copyright © 2003,
http://www.newsday.com/">Newsday, Inc.
Outer space becomes multipolar By Jamie Miyazaki The scheduled October 30 signing by China and the European Union to open the way for China to take a substantial financial role in Europe's nearly US$4 billion Galileo navigation-satellite project could be interpreted as a direct shot across the bow of the United States as the world's sole, undisputed military and economic superpower in outer space. Nor is it going to be the last. The French, the Chinese and the Russians are all pushing for the emergence of a multipolar world to counter the United States' supremacy as a so-called hyperpower. The EU, spurred primarily by French efforts, for decades has actively challenged US dominance in the strategically important aerospace industry through Airbus Industrie and the Ariane space-rocket program. The EU's next serious challenge to US supremacy looks set to be the lucrative navigation-satellite industry currently monopolized by the United States-based Global Positioning System (GPS). But in order to attain this, the EU has had to rely on help from Beijing. The joint EU-China agreement, scheduled to be signed at the summit between China and the European Union, provides for cooperation on satellite navigation over a wide range of scientific and technological sectors, industrial manufacturing, service and market development and other issues. What it really does, however, is go into deep Chinese pockets for substantial financial help through a stakeholding in the project. If all goes as scheduled, Galileo would loft a constellation of 30 stationary satellites 23,000 kilometers into the sky as a counterweight to GPS, the current state of play in satellite location technology. Planned to be operational by 2008 at a cost of 3.3 billion euros ($3.85 billion), Galileo is designed to counter the effective US monopoly on navigation satellite technology with improved accuracy that, as a civilian system, won't be subject to government blocking. Originally developed as a military application to pinpoint and target objects from space, GPS has become one of the world's true whiz-bang technologies. The satellite system allows both military and commercial surveying to pinpoint the location of vehicles, aircraft, ships or even herds of cattle anywhere on Earth. Since its inception the US system has also been expanded to cover civilian applications, something US officials have repeatedly pointed out in their questioning why Galileo has to be established at all. However, its civilian applications are deliberately low-precision to maintain the US military advantage in pinpointing objects. To counter one of the arguments of the EU's rival Galileo system, the US government recently fine-tuned the accuracy of its civilian-use system, although in the past the United States has selectively blocked access when it has felt national security was in danger of being compromised, as it did during the campaign in Afghanistan. The United States has stressed space systems as key "strategic enablers" for conducting command, control and intelligence functions in military operations, all part of the Pentagon's much-touted Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is in the process of drafting a comprehensive strategy to ensure US dominance of space. As General Lance Lord of the US Air Force Space Command put it in April, "The pursuit of asymmetric advantage is not new. In the 20th century, air power emerged as just such an advantage. Today, at the outset of the 21st century, we are realizing the same sort of advantage through space power." This broadened sense of the importance of space capabilities as instruments of military, political and economic interests has not gone unnoticed, either by Beijing or by Brussels. French President Jacques Chirac has previously stated that Europe's failure to develop an independent space capability would make Europe a "vassal" of the United States. Unsurprisingly, France has been one of the most vocal backers of Galileo, viewing it as an important step in the evolution of a separate European defense identity. China's leadership feels likewise and has made improving space-based surveillance capabilities, the exploitation of space and acquisition of related technologies high priorities. The Pentagon's July report on Chinese military power phrased it more directly: "Publicly, China opposes the militarization of space and seeks to prevent the development of US anti-satellites systems and space-based missile defenses. Privately, however, China's leaders view [moves to militarize space] ... as inevitabilities." Initially a lot of China's space programs were motivated by political prestige, but military dominance of most of its current projects is expected to yield significant amounts of dual-use technology. China already has a basic indigenous navigation satellite system called Beidou in place, but its surveillance capabilities are in effect limited to China and are of questionable quality. Next month also sees the launch of China's first manned space mission - Shenzhou V ("divine vessel") - just the first step in a much larger program. By 2010 it is predicted that China's space program will be a significant contributor to its military prowess. In Beijing's quest to secure a favorable strategic configuration of power it too has pinpointed space as the "new commanding heights for combat". Central to its strategy of a weaker military power (read China) defeating a superior one (read the US) is an attack on an enemy's space-based communication and surveillance systems. With this in mind Beijing is known to be developing systems that could jam GPS. China is already of one of the biggest players in the global satellite launch industry and has been busily cooperating with a number of countries to improve its space capabilities. These include Ukraine, Russia and Brazil, but the September 18 signing of a deal with the EU for joint cooperation in the development of Galileo is easily the most significant. Crucially, the Chinese government and corporations will be involved in research and development activities, including satellite launching and radio transmission. Galileo has obvious market applications for the Chinese, but it is its military applications that are the most significant. Despite being initially developed as a civilian application, unlike Russia's Glosnass system or America's GPS, Galileo has a military dimension in its premium Public Regulated Service (PRS) capacity, intended for military and government use. PRS functions on a separate frequency from America's GPS military frequencies and, combined with systems capable of disabling GPS, this would give a Galileo-based nation a strategic advantage in any outbreak of hostilities. In the long run China could decide to base some of its military hardware on Galileo technology. This has also gotten European defense companies very excited, even though a European arms embargo imposed on China after the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989 is still in place. Needless to say, Washington has not been particularly impressed by this incident of Beijing-Brussels diplomacy. Further worries for Washington were expressions of interest in Galileo last week by India and Israel. With the Chinese on board, Galileo now looks set to become a major competitor to GPS in the race to dominate space. Moreover, Beijing's attempts to reach for the heavens next month with the launch of Shenzhou V have managed to ruffle quite a few feathers, and not just in Washington. In reaction to Beijing's ambitions in outer space, the Japanese decided to merge their three space agencies into a more focused outfit. It would appear that despite Washington's best efforts to maintain its dominance on Earth by its technological advantage in outer space, the proponents of multipolarity are set to take the battle to the heavens. After China and the EU formally ink their cooperation deal at the end of next month, we can expect to see Galileo and Shenzhou V charting their quiet trajectories to create a multipolar world in the starry skies above us. (Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
China reportedly relocates astronauts ahead of space launch A group of Chinese astronauts has reportedly arrived at a launch centre in north-western China, ahead of the country's first manned space launch expected in October. A pro-Beijing newspaper in Hong Kong reports that a group of 14 astronauts have now been moved to a Chinese space centre in the country's northwest. China is planning to launch its first manned space mission before the end of the year, and its widely predicted it will happen in October. The movement of the astronauts indicates a launch may be soon. Authorities are very secretive about China's space program, and have not revealed an exact launch date or how many astronauts will be in the capsule of the first manned space ship. Our China correspondent, John Taylor, says much national pride is at stake for the country. If the launch is successful, the country will become only the third nation after the United States and the former Soviet Union to put a person in space. 30/09/2003 12:04:34 | ABC Radio Australia News
Mon September 29, 2003 09:49 PM ET By Benjamin Kang Lim BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese legend holds that a Ming dynasty (1368-1644) man named Wan Hu aimed for the stars by holding kites in each hand and strapping himself to a chair as 47 servants lit 47 gunpowder-packed bamboo tubes tied to his seat. A roar followed. After the smoke dissipated, the chair was gone, along with Wan Hu. It was unclear if what was purported to be the world's first manned rocket ever made it to the skies. Today, China is counting down the days to its first manned space launch and hoping to avoid the same fate as Wan Hu, thanks to advanced space technology. China, long mired in poverty but growing fast after more than two decades of market reforms, is eager for the prestige that would come with being just the third country capable of putting people into space. "With the launch of the Shenzhou spacecraft, China lifts its technological image into the heavens, bypassing the rest of the advanced-engineering nations," said Anthony Curtis, editor of Space Today Online. Yu Maochun of the U.S. Naval Academy said: "The manned space program is an essential part of the Communist Party's near fanatical quest for international respect and dignity, which (in) itself is a normal phenomenon among many rising powers in history." FAILURE LOOMS LARGE A successful launch, on the heels of Beijing winning a bid to host the 2008 Olympics, could fuel nationalism and boost the Communist Party's credibility as China seeks a place on the world stage alongside great powers. A failure would be a loss of face and would raise questions about the necessity of a space program in a country where 140 million people live in abject poverty, or on less than $1 a day. "For China, as with all perilous endeavors, the chance of a deadly public failure looms large. By linking national pride and CCP credibility, Beijing is jeopardizing both," Joshua Eisenman, a fellow at the New American Foundation, a public policy think tank in Washington, wrote in Singapore's Straits Times. The CCP refers to the Chinese Communist Party. China has cloaked its space program in secrecy, ostensibly to avoid embarrassment in the event of failure. Stung by a string of failed satellite launches in the 1980s and '90s, China has kept recent lift-offs quiet, announcing them only after success was confirmed. The date of the launch of the next Shenzhou -- meaning "Divine Ship" -- is a state secret but is expected around the October 1 National Day holidays. Repeated requests to interview space officials have been rejected. China's first astronauts -- dubbed "taikonauts" from "taikong," the Chinese word for space -- are faceless. China has yet to tell the world who they are, other than they were plucked from the ranks of top fighter pilots. MILITARY APPLICATIONS There are no public details on the launch's budget, though it is believed to be a fraction of U.S. manned space flight costs and is covered under rapidly expanding military outlays. The launch by China is going ahead despite the loss of the U.S. space shuttle Columbia, which disintegrated in February while re-entering the atmosphere. Seven astronauts died. Experts said China's space program had no big technology breakthroughs but would incrementally improve existing space technologies such as computers, materials, electronics, rockets, guidance and life support. It comes as no surprise that China's space program may have military applications. "As the Soviet Union used its Soyuz capsules and Salyut space stations in the 1970s and 1980s to spy from space and carry out other forms of military research, so will the Chinese," said Curtis of Space Today Online. Yu of the U.S. Naval Academy said: "This project may boost China's R&D on strategic missile programs, but the cost will be enormous for China." China has hinted at more starry-eyed space plans. State media have reported on designs for a lunar probe that would be a step toward sending Chinese to the moon. ONE GIANT MISSTEP FOR CHINA? Hard economic realities may temper those dreams. China is running a record 320 billion yuan ($39 billion) deficit this year. While the economy is flourishing, the health of the financial system is precarious, and any sharp downturn could quickly squelch loftier ambitions for space. Some analysts were critical of the planned moon landing. "A wasteful program such as the planned moon landing conducted by a developing country is just a small step for mankind and a giant misstep for China," Yu said in a wry twist on Neil Armstrong's famous quote. Human boots have not trod on the moon since the U.S. Apollo program ended with the Apollo XVII mission in 1972. The Soviet Union was the first to put a man in space when Yuri Gagarin reached orbit in 1961. Weeks later, Alan Shepard became the first American in space, although an American didn't orbit Earth until John Glenn did so the following year. Experts said China may be joining the exclusive space club four decades late, but its entry could trigger a space race in Northeast Asia with Japan and even South Korea. "The launch of Chinese astronauts will capture the attention of everyone, especially opinion leaders," Curtis said. "That could breathe new life into the U.S. space program as Americans realize that competition has returned after disappearing for a time since the fall of the Soviet Union." (Additional reporting by Scott Hillis)
China Bids for the High Ground China jockeys for position on Earth through its upcoming manned space flight Joan Johnson-Freese YaleGlobal, 1 October 2003 "Divine Vessel" capsule returns after a test launch: The hope of reaping worldly gain from a Chinese citizen in space. NEWPORT, USA: As the countdown clock ticks away, best-guesses have set the Chinese launch of their first taikonaut, or yuhangyuan, into orbit on or around October 15, 2003. The date, however, is still uncertain since the Chinese always maintain some ambiguity to "save face" if difficulties occur. The Shenzhou V - "Divine Vessel" - capsule will be launched into orbit by a Long March (CZ) 2F rocket. That event will make China the third country in the world to have a manned space capability, joining the exclusive club of the United States and Russia. The Chinese space program is an ambitious one. (See "Chinese Astronauts to Compete for Final Frontier"). It is also one which has generated interest, concern, and questions in the United States and throughout the world. Although China generally, and China's space program specifically, are often shrouded in secrecy, the interesting and difficult part of answering these questions is not necessarily in finding information, but in interpreting the information available. China is a country of such size and complexity that analysts can find evidence for any hypothesis they seek to advance. Additionally, since space technology can be applied to both the civil and military arenas, accurately judging the technology's significance is complicated. Nevertheless, four basic questions seem useful to review in considering the importance of a Chinese manned space launch. First, why are the Chinese pursuing a manned space program? The Chinese said in their official 2000 government White Paper that space activity is an integral part of the state's comprehensive development strategy. But manned space activity is both high-risk and high-cost, so why go down that specific road? Some US analysts see China's manned space activity as a Trojan Horse within which they can conceal their military space activities. Others see it as a prestige program for the country, acknowledging that such prestige includes domestic legitimacy for the government, regional leadership, and internationally "playing with the big boys." The US Apollo program, for example, had multiple goals: reaching the Moon in the Cold War race against the Soviets for eminence and technological development (with a military spillover), as well as employing lots of Americans and improving their technological skills and education along the way. The Chinese have clearly read that play-book, and there is considerable evidence that they seek all of the same objectives. The second question often asked is, "How much are they spending on their program?" Though the Chinese do not release budget figures, estimates from US analysts are about $2.2 billion annually. But what can one conclude from that figure, especially when compared to NASA's $15 billion budget? The answer is nothing. The comparison is meaningless when one considers China's command economy, difficulties with currency conversion, and the fact that China deliberately over-employs people in state-owned enterprises to keep unemployment down. The best that can be said, based on their commitment to the program, is that China is spending relatively significant government resources. Interestingly, the same factors that make comparisons impossible may also enable China to maintain the political will to develop space stations, lunar bases, and even missions to Mars - goals that China has publicly stated it wants to pursue. Ultimately, however, political will can only be sustained by one thing - success. The will to succeed raises the third question: Will the first manned Shenzhou launch be successful? Such a question inevitably leads to issues of technology. Is the Shenzhou capsule a copy of the Russian Soyuz-A? Are the Chinese merely copying the earlier technological breakthroughs of the US and Russia? What would a successful launch mean in terms of gauging Chinese technical - read military - capabilities? The technology questions are the ones most subject to analysis-through-a-prism. Predetermination of what you're looking for can lead you to your findings. The Shenzhou capsule bears an uncanny resemblance to the Soyuz-A. Like Soyuz, Shenzhou has three components: a forward module to hold experiments or act as a crew transfer module, the manned module, and a rear service module housing the propulsion system. The primary external difference is that the Shenzhou forward module has solar panels, which allows it to detach and remain in orbit, potentially docking at a later time. Shenzhou III left its forward module in orbit for six months before the module was deliberately destroyed during reentry. Does this mean that the Chinese have "merely" copied the Russians and therefore one can dismiss claims of technical prowess? No. External designs vary, but just as different models of cars and planes have similarities, so do rockets. The Chinese have long taken advantage of learning from the experience of others, rather than constantly reinventing the wheel. But that doesn't mean building rockets is easy. Although constructing a rocket is relatively straightforward, it does require incredible attention to detail, which can only be learned by experience. It is in rocket engineering that the complications begin, especially when the design must work the first time it is used. The stakes are even higher when the rocket is designed to carry a human payload. So if the Chinese are able to pull this off successfully, it will mean that they have achieved very complex levels of rocket engineering; otherwise, the exclusive club would likely not be so exclusive. Moreover, although attention to detail is required whether the payload is a satellite or a person, it is the number of details and the "cost" of failure that changes. Rocket science, the physics behind the operation of a missile or launch vehicle, was developed over 60 years ago and is contained in textbooks published in every conceivable language. Therefore, the assumption that behind China's pursuit of manned space capability lies something militarily nefarious is a conclusion drawn from analysis of intent, not technology. Ironically, Western analyses sometimes dismiss China's technological accomplishments in one breath, and see dire consequences in China's manned space launch for the United States in another. Such contradictory assessments lead to a final, important question, which has not often been asked so far: "What will be the reaction of the American public to a successful Chinese manned space launch?" Washington was surprised by the public's stunned response to Sputnik. Though a technological "blip," Americans saw it as threatening their security and global stature, and the government was forced to respond in ways it had not anticipated. Few Americans are even aware that the Chinese are preparing the launch of Shenzhou V. When it occurs, what will they think? That it will likely occur while the US shuttle fleet is grounded will magnify how the US and the world perceive China's technological achievement. Certainly, some in Washington will react by claiming that the launch requires the US to spend more money on space - military space. In policy circles, its perceived strategic importance could also chill recently-warmed US-China relations. But will it also trigger a demand to re-invigorate the US manned space program? At the moment, although an austere version of the International Space Station is in orbit, it has been a stepchild while military space has ascended in importance. Maybe the launch will generate nothing more than a passing interest from the US public. If China successfully launches a taikonaut into orbit, it will "win" in all the ways the United States did during Apollo. If the launch is not a success, China will suffer and mourn just as the United States did after the loss of the Challenger and the Columbia, and then it will rethink whether to continue with the program or not. Success in the heavens is spectacular, but so too is failure. Joan Johnson-Freese is Chair of the National Security Decision Making Department at the United States Naval War College. The views expressed in this article are the author’s alone and do not represent the official position of the Department of the Navy, the Department of Defense, or the US government. Rights: © 2003 Yale Center for the Study of Globalization.
Posted 10/1/2003 8:11 PM China set to enter frontier of manned spaceflights By David J. Lynch, USA TODAY BEIJING — Draped in secrecy, technicians at a distant launch pad are readying an 8-ton spacecraft that could soon turn an anonymous Chinese fighter pilot into an instant hero for one-fifth of humanity. A dummy astronaut is placed in the Shenzhou IV capsule for its Dec. 2002 flight. By Liang Shengshu, Imaginechina China may be just a few weeks from becoming the third nation to send a man into space, marking another step toward becoming one of the world's top powers. With its Shenzhou V spacecraft, China may be boldly going where others already have been — Russia in April 1961, when Yuri Gagarin aboard the Vostok 1 became the first human in space, and the United States less than a month later when Alan Shepard flew aboard the Freedom 7. But if the 11-year quest to send a taikonaut into space succeeds, Beijing's Communist leadership expects to reap significant rewards. A manned space launch would vault China past wealthier space-faring European nations and Japan, which have concentrated on unmanned exploration. And along with an earlier coup in winning the right to host the 2008 Olympic Games, it would visibly cement the government's claim to be building a more modern and prosperous nation. "China wants to say: 'We're in the big leagues now; we're on the same level as Russia and the United States,' " says Phillip Clark of the Molniya Space Consultancy in Hastings, England. Skeptics say an expensive manned space program is a political vanity project that a developing nation can ill afford. Though China has enjoyed impressive economic growth for a decade, annual per capita income remains just $800. "I frankly think it's a waste of money. It's kind of a bread-and-circus routine," says James Mulvenon, a China-watcher at a Rand Corp.'s office in Arlington, Va. But such a massive, state-funded enterprise is exactly the type of venture that for decades has appealed to China's senior leadership, most of whom are Soviet-trained engineers. The heavy investment required also is expected to spawn advanced technologies with both military and commercial applications, as it did for the United States and Soviet Union. Everything from more accurate ballistic missiles to the Tang breakfast drink can be traced to the 1960s-era U.S. space program. By some estimates, China is spending up to $2 billion annually and employing 270,000 people on what is known officially as "Project 921." The United States is monitoring the potential gains for China's military. Beijing has recognized the Pentagon's reliance upon space for its combat edge since the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Chinese military writings often depict American space-based reconnaissance and communications satellites as the U.S. military's "Achilles Heel." The Pentagon earlier this year warned that the manned space program would "almost certainly" lead to improved Chinese military space systems from 2010 to 2020. Some ultimately could threaten critical U.S. satellites. In January, state TV broadcast footage of Chinese officials recovering the last unmanned Shenzhou or "Divine Vessel," test capsule from the frozen Mongolian plain. Surrounded by beaming officials wearing thick coats to ward off the bitter cold, the spacecraft resembled an oversized green walnut. That was a rare public glimpse. At this date, few official details of China's launch plans are in the open. The Web site of People's Daily, the state-owned newspaper, quoted an unnamed "insider" earlier this week as saying Shenzhou V will blast off aboard a Long March rocket before the end of the month. The mission is expected to last about 24 hours, Clark says. The Shenzhou V is designed to carry up to three crewmembers, though the initial voyage is expected to feature a single taikonaut. For several years, 14 veteran fighter pilots — purveyors of the "right stuff" like their American and Soviet predecessors — have trained at facilities in Russia and China. Their average age is 30, and each boasts more than 10 years of experience, according to People's Daily. The men's average height is 5-feet-7 inches — about 4 inches shorter than Shepard. China has been active in space since the launch of its first satellite in 1970, which broadcast from space the Maoist anthem The East is Red. The current manned program dates to 1992. From the earliest days of its space effort, Beijing deliberately scrutinized the earlier Russian and American ventures, taking away insights that allowed it to "hit the ground running," Clark says. Chinese officials have made clear that they want to do more than simply reprise the U.S. Apollo program. Deriding the U.S. moon effort for achieving no lasting presence there, some here talk of sending unmanned flights to the moon and eventually mining minerals there. Once China places a man in orbit, the next step — perhaps as soon as next year — would be to send Shenzhou aloft carrying more than one taikonaut. Later, by docking two spacecraft together nose-to-nose, the Chinese could operate a small space station. Beijing has not been asked to join the 16 nations that are building the International Space Station. As is the case with all of China's ambitions, progress in space depends upon continued robust economic growth and political stability. "The Chinese are really thinking big on this," says Kevin Pollpeter, another Rand analyst. But "they realize this is a very long-term goal and a lot could happen between now and then." Shadowing all of the lofty plans is the legend of Wan Hu, the 16th century Chinese official said to have attempted to fly into space aboard a wicker chair equipped with arrow-rockets and large kites. When it was time for liftoff, Wan commanded 47 assistants to light the rockets. There was a loud explosion and when the smoke cleared, he was gone, though no one was ever certain whether he had gone in one piece or many.
'Playing with the Big Boys' -- China Ready for Human Spaceflight Fri Oct 3, 3:10 PM ET By Leonard David Senior Space Writer, SPACE.com China appears ready this month to make a stab at becoming the third nation capable of independent launch of humans into Earth orbit. Chinese space officials remain tight-lipped about details of when the flight of a piloted Shenzhou 5 might occur, who'll be onboard and scope of the overall mission. Meanwhile, rumors abound, seemingly pointing to liftoff of Shenzhou 5 atop a Long March 2F booster sometime between the next few days to two weeks. Sources indicate that the launch vehicle was delivered to China's Jiuquan Space Center on Aug. 25, with the Shenzhou 5 spacecraft subsequently fitted to the booster. Key questions There are a number of policy implications of China stepping into the human spaceflight business, explains Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the National Security Decision Making Department at the United States Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. Writing in the Oct. 1 edition of Yale Global Online, a publication of the Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, Johnson-Freese tackles a number of issues revolving around the upcoming liftoff. The views she expresses in the article are hers alone and do not represent the official position of the Department of the Navy, the Department of Defense (news - web sites), or the U.S. government. Johnson-Freese believes that to understand the implications of the launch, four key questions need to be considered: Why are the Chinese pursuing a manned space program? How much is it costing them? Will the upcoming manned launch be successful? What will be the reaction of the American public to a successful Chinese launch? The answers to these four questions are likely to influence U.S. technology and defense interests, Johnson-Freese believes, as well as policy makers in Washington and around the globe. A successful launch could bring a multitude of benefits to China, similar to what the Apollo program did for American scientific advancement. But she adds a cautionary note. While "success in the heavens is spectacular so too is failure." "Some U.S. analysts see China's manned space activity as a Trojan Horse within which they can conceal their military space activities," Johnson-Freese explains. "Others see it as a prestige program for the country, acknowledging that such prestige includes domestic legitimacy for the government, regional leadership, and internationally 'playing with the big boys.'" Space boosting budgets China is spending about $2.2 billion annually on space, according to estimates from U.S. analysts. When contrasted to NASA (news - web sites)'s $15 billion that doesn't seem much. Johnson-Freese believes that comparing those budget numbers is meaningless. That's due to China's command economy (where supply and price are regulated), difficulties with currency conversion and the fact that China deliberately over-employs people in state-owned enterprises to keep unemployment down, she explains. "The best that can be said, based on their commitment to the program, is that China is spending relatively significant government resources," she says. "Interestingly, the same factors that make comparisons impossible may also enable China to maintain the political will to develop space stations, lunar bases, and even missions to Mars -- goals that China has publicly stated it wants to pursue. Ultimately, however, political will can only be sustained by one thing -- success." Public impact For some, there is an assumption that behind China's pursuit of manned space capability lies something militarily nefarious, Johnson-Freese explains. This is a conclusion "drawn from analysis of intent, not technology." "Ironically, Western analyses sometimes dismiss China's technological accomplishments in one breath, and see dire consequences in China's manned space launch for the United States in another," she writes. An important question, she adds, is the impact on the American public of a successful Chinese manned spaceflight. "That it will likely occur while the U.S. shuttle fleet is grounded will magnify how the U.S. and the world perceive China's technological achievement. Certainly, some in Washington will react by claiming that the launch requires the U.S. to spend more money on space -- military space," Johnson-Freese suggests. In policy circles, Johnson-Freese continues, the perceived strategic importance of the Shenzhou flight could also chill recently warmed U.S.-China relations. But will it also trigger a demand to re-invigorate the U.S. human spaceflight program? "At the moment, although an austere version of the International Space Station (news - web sites) is in orbit, it has been a stepchild while military space has ascended in importance. Maybe the launch will generate nothing more than a passing interest from the U.S. public," Johnson-Freese concludes. One-upmanship China's initial leap forward in human space exploration is likely to be modest and cautionary, said Dean Cheng, senior policy analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis in Alexandria Virginia. On this inaugural flight of a piloted Shenzhou, China is not likely to take too many chances, such as radically modifying tried-and-true booster designs. Cheng said that he's seen one report indicating that the Long March 2F upper stage may have been strengthened to handle the increased weight of a Shenzhou, plus the escape tower. It wouldn't seem likely Chinese space engineers have made radical booster design changes, "simply because it would almost certainly have gone through a much more extensive testing program," he said. "The Chinese, for obvious reasons, want their manned program to do well, and that means making sure that there are as few uncertainties as possible. Given that they've not put a man up before, this is probably not the time for them to also start testing new launch systems as well," Cheng told SPACE.com. On the other hand, Cheng's personal opinion is that the Chinese manned program, like many other Chinese efforts, will aim to "top" other countries' first efforts. The first Chinese satellite was bigger than Sputnik 1, for example, he said. Cheng suggests that China might aim for a multi-man shot, probably two people. That would be a case of true "one-upmanship" on their part. Both the former Soviet Union and the United States lofted a single person on their first orbital sojourns: Yuri Gagarin in April 1961, followed by John Glenn in February 1962. NASA astronauts Alan Shepard and Gus Grissom each flew a suborbital flight to space in 1961 before Glenn circled the Earth. Get them up, get them down Jonathan McDowell, a space analyst at the Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Mass., notes that the Shenzhou is much closer in capability to the U.S. and former Soviet Union's second-generation spacecraft, Gemini and the Soyuz, respectively. "Indeed, Shenzhou is closely based on the Soyuz design. In particular, it can carry a crew of at least two, and more importantly, has maneuvering and rendezvous capabilities," McDowell told SPACE.com. "The key thing to demonstrate on this mission is the life support system. Also, they'll do a lot of testing of onboard systems, as well as some baseline medical experiments to study how the astronauts adapt to free-fall. That's nothing new for us, but they need to get their own experience," McDowell said. During the Shenzhou 5 flight, McDowell said, the spaceship will likely undergo manual orientation trials, with the crew onboard aligning the craft to a particular star, or getting snapshots of a particular part of China. "I suspect another objective will be to test out the maneuvering engine and change their orbit slightly, in preparation for future missions which will do rendezvous and docking," McDowell noted. Finally and crucially, the Shenzhou V crew would activate the recovery system, first jettisoning an orbital module that typically stays in orbit for months, then head home in a descent module by firing the engine to return to the atmosphere and land in northern China, he said. "Although all of these systems have been tested on the first four automated missions, we can expect a pretty simple mission profile on this first flight with a crew, McDowell said. "Go up, check that the life support systems work with an actual crew onboard -- air, water, food, temperature, and, yes, waste disposal -- test out a few other basic things like the rocket engine and attitude control, and then get the astronauts back as soon as possible."
China Hush-Hush on Manned Space Flight Sat October 4, 2003 07:57 AM ET BEIJING (Reuters) - China on Saturday announced plans to launch a satellite to monitor the Earth but made no mention of its top-secret first manned space flight expected any day now. State television said China would launch a satellite at the end of 2003 in line with a Sino-European surveying project. "The testing of the Long March 2 carrier rocket is running smoothly and the launch will be carried out as scheduled," it said, without giving details. China is expected in the next few days to become only the third country to put a person into orbit after the former Soviet Union and the United States. Official media have been secretive about the launch date, but speculation is widespread it would be during or near the week-long National Day holiday, which started on October 1. An official at the China Aviation Manned Aircraft Office told Reuters China would officially announce the date of the launch ahead of time. "It's hard to say," he said when asked if the launch would be during the holiday or later in the month. Another official, who declined to be identified, said: "We'll officially announce the date of launch and the number of spaceman at the right time. We won't give any details before that." China has announced plans for probes of the moon and Mars and already is established as a launcher of rockets for satellites. A successful manned flight, on the heels of Beijing winning a bid to host the 2008 Olympics, could fuel nationalism and boost the Communist Party's credibility as China seeks a place on the world stage alongside great powers. A failure would be a loss of face and would raise questions about the necessity of a space program in a country where 140 million people live on less than $1 a day. The Beijing Review magazine said 14 air force pilots had been chosen as a pool of candidates for the manned flight, based on strict physical and psychological tests. There are believed to be three seats. "All are 1.7 meters (about 5' 7") high and weigh around 65 kg (143 lb)," it quoted Su Shuangning, chief commander of the astronauts-training sector, as saying. "More than 20 kinds of China-made and researched space food have been prepared. And the spacesuits to be worn by the astronauts, which weigh about 10 kg apiece and each cost as much as a luxury car, are ready for use."
China expects boost from space program By JULIE CHAO The Atlanta Journal-Constitution BEIJING -- Soon, maybe this month, from a town at the edge of the Gobi Desert -- not far from the terminus of the Great Wall -- one man, or maybe two, will blast into space. After four unmanned trial flights, China hopes to launch and successfully return its yuhangyuan -- astronaut, or, literally translated, universe traveler -- aboard a spacecraft called Shenzhou V. China would become the third nation to achieve manned spaceflight. The feat -- the details of which are secret -- would follow those of the Soviet Union and the United States by 42 years, but being No. 3 would not diminish the significance for a country eager to join the ranks of the world's leading powers. "For the Chinese nation, it is a big event," said Zhai Liyuan, a physicist with the China Association for Science and Technology. "In modern history, China has always been behind in science and technology. Now China can be at the same level as the world powers." A shot at glory China's reach for the stars doesn't end with a low Earth orbit. It has stated its ambition to explore the moon, build a space station and send a probe to Mars by 2020. The propaganda value of such achievements is undeniable. They would help bestow legitimacy on a Communist leadership struggling with a multitude of social and economic ills while galvanizing national pride and proving the country's technological prowess, analysts say. Beyond prestige, Beijing hopes its space program will yield technical benefits for the military and advances in communications, medical technology and other fields, much as the Apollo program did for the United States in the 1960s. A government paper on the space program acknowledges an attempt to recapture a bit of China's ancient glory. "The Chinese nation created a glorious civilization in the early stage of mankind's history," it said. "The gunpowder 'rocket' invented by the ancient Chinese was the embryo of modern space rockets." The report goes on to call the space industry "an integral part of the state's comprehensive development strategy." "Practically speaking, the main goal for China is, like the United States did, to accelerate high-level scientific developments," Zhai said. "Internationally, the vast majority of patents, inventions and scientific discoveries are from the developed countries. China has very few." War an eye-opener While China has launched satellites for more than 30 years, the manned space program was started partly as a reaction to the advanced U.S. military technology displayed in the 1991 Gulf War, said Charles Vick, an expert on Chinese and Russian space programs and a consultant for globalsecurity.org. "The information warfare that we developed and utilized during that war was overwhelming," Vick said. "They realized how weak they actually were." China began its manned spaceflight program in 1992. "The key to modern wars lies in outer space, where the most advanced national defense appliance of the United States, the missile defense system, is established," Chen Ning Yang, a physicist at Tsinghua University and a U.S. Nobel laureate, told Hong Kong media recently. The military will benefit from gains in associated industries, including materials, electronics and robotic systems, Vick said. It also will benefit from improvements in procedures such as controlling, maneuvering and eventually docking spacecraft. The space program also sends a strong message to political rival Taiwan, noted Dean Cheng, senior Asia analyst with the CNA Corp., a nonprofit think tank. It can be viewed as "a cudgel . . . a means of reminding Taiwan that the Chinese can attain the strategic high ground," Cheng said, while also appealing to Taiwanese to "feel some of the glory" of the Chinese nation. Competition with India, which has announced plans for a lunar mission in 2008, also is prodding China. "Chinese scientists think if they don't intensify their efforts, they will fall behind India," Zhai said. "It's a worry for them." The Shenzhou (divine vessel) spacecraft, based on Russia's Soyuz but overhauled by Chinese scientists, first took off in 1999. It orbited for one day. Later launches, for seven days each, were increasingly complex. Shenzhou III carried a test dummy, and Shenzhou IV had a life support system. 14 pilots in training The launch date for Shenzhou V is being kept secret. Officials have said only that it will take place this year. Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV quoted unnamed experts as saying launch will be between Oct. 10 and 17 and will carry two men. Weather is a factor in setting the date. The spacecraft, along with the Long March 2F rocket that will launch it, were moved several months ago to the Jiuquan Space Launch Center in Gansu province, in northwestern China. Fourteen fighter pilots, all male, have been training in secret to be China's first astronauts. The trainees' names are being withheld, but the 21st Century News said three were candidates for the first flight.
China space program plans big splash Beijing-AP -- China plans to make its mark in space with a flourish. Official media say the communist nation could put its first man in space within days. That would make China just the third country after the U-S and Russia to do so. According to an official government newspaper, the communist country then plans to send a research satellite to orbit the moon within the next three years. The Beijing Youth Daily says the satellite would orbit the moon for one year and collect data on geology, soil conditions, environment and resources. Its launch would mark the "third milestone" in the Chinese space program, after the launching of satellites and manned spaceflight. The report makes no mention of any manned moon shot. Copyright 2003 Associated Press. All rights reserved.
China Plans to Launch Satellite to Orbit Moon As its first attempt at manned space flight nears, China has announced plans to launch a research satellite that would orbit the moon. 07/10/2003 14:10 The official media say the satellite would be placed into orbit within the next three years, and would function for about a year. Officials say that after the launch, it will take eight or nine days for the satellite to reach the moon. China's manned space program is shrouded in secrecy, and there has been no announcement of when the first manned space flight will take place. Experts say they expect it to happen near the end of this month. China would become just the third country to put a person into orbit, after the former Soviet Union and the United States. Unlike those country's first manned space flights, China's will involve more than one astronaut. Earlier this year, the Chinese space agency successfully launched an unmanned space capsule. That spacecraft |
