HURRICANE IVAN

9-4-05

compiled by Dee Finney

DEATH TOLL CLIMBS TO 76

IVAN REFORMS FOR A RETURN VISIT

updated 9-23-04

HURRICANE CAMILLE - 1969
FOLLOWED THE SAME TRACK AS IVAN
BEFORE AND AFTER PHOTOS OF CAMILLE'S DAMAGE

 
GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands Sept. 13, 2004 — A strengthened Hurricane Ivan headed toward the tip of western Cuba with 160 mph winds Monday after pummeling the Cayman Islands with flooding that swamped homes and fierce winds that ripped off roofs.

The slow-moving, extremely dangerous Category 5 storm, one of the strongest on record to hit the region, killed at least 68 people across the Caribbean before reaching the Caymans, and threatens millions more in its projected path.

Parts of low-lying Grand Cayman, the largest island in the territory of 45,000 people, were swamped under up to 8 feet of water Monday and residents stood on rooftops of flooded homes. A car floated by the second story of one building, and a resident called Radio Cayman to report seeing two bodies floating off the beach. Police said they could not confirm the report.

Ivan intensified overnight, with maximum sustained winds at 160 mph and gusts up to 195 mph, and headed for western Cuba, threatening floods in Pinar del Rio province, the center of tobacco growing and the biggest source for the island's famed cigar industry. About 1.3 million Cubans were evacuated from their homes, most taking refuge in the sturdier houses of relatives, co-workers or neighbors.

Ivan at Category 5, the highest level on the Saffir-Simpson scale and capable of catastrophic damage was projected to pass near or over Cuba's western end by Monday afternoon or evening on a path toward the U.S. gulf coast.

Although Cubans were relieved by reports that the hurricane would not make a direct hit, Havana's head meteorologist, Jose Rubiera, said Ivan was still threatening western parts of the island with strong winds and torrential rains. "No one should think that it is gone, that we are safe that is not true," he said.

Cuba's Isla de Juventud, or Isle of Youth, southwest of the main island, began experiencing 50 mph winds and intermittent rain early Monday, the official Prensa Latina news service said.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the center might miss the tip of Cuba and could move near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula in the next 24 hours.

At 11 a.m. EDT Monday, Ivan's eye was about 85 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extended 105 miles and tropical storm-force winds another 205 miles. Ivan was moving northwest near 8 mph.

Ivan was expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, nearing parts of Florida's west coast still recovering from Hurricane Charley and threatening to make landfall in the Florida panhandle, Mississippi or Louisiana. Mexico's northeastern Yucatan peninsula also was on alert.

"Right now, we're looking anywhere from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana," Jennifer Pralgo, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Center, said. "We do feel that the southern portion of Florida will be in the clear on this."

Ivan killed at least 15 people in Jamaica, 39 in Grenada, five in Venezuela, one in Tobago, one in Barbados and four children in the Dominican Republic. On Monday, officials in Haiti said the storm killed three people there Saturday.

Oil platforms in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico were being evacuated, and expectations of a disruption in gulf production pushed up oil prices more than $1 a barrel.

In Jamaica, shelters jammed with more than 11,000 people were running short of food Monday and officials said they planned to fly in supplies to isolated districts by helicopter. Dozens of roads were blocked by debris from the storm Saturday.

Ivan's eye skirted Jamaica's south coast Sunday, then passed just south of Grand Cayman, said Rafael Mojica, a Hurricane Center meteorologist.

Though Ivan's center didn't directly make landfall in the Caymans' three-island chain, the storm lashed the wealthy British territory all day Sunday with 150 mph winds, and the rains kept coming through the night.

"It's as bad as it can possibly get," Justin Uzzell, 35, said by telephone Sunday from his fifth-floor refuge in an office building on Grand Cayman. "It's a horizontal blizzard. The air is just foam."

An estimated one-quarter to one-half of the 15,000 homes on the island suffered some damage said Donnie Ebanks, deputy chairman of its National Hurricane Committee.

"We know there is damage and it is severe," said Wes Emanuel of the Cayman Islands' Government Information Service.

Patchy cell phone service was restored as dawn broke in the Caymans, a popular scuba diving destination and banking center.

The airport runway was flooded and windows shattered in the control tower, Ebanks said. The winds uprooted trees as tall as three stories.

Mexico issued a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for the northeastern Yucatan, and hundreds abandoned fishing settlements on the nearby island of Holbox. The resort city of Cancun opened shelters and closed beaches and hotel owners boarded over windows. The tourist island of Cozumel shut down its airport and halted the arrival of cruise ships.

While projections had the storm bypassing the Florida Keys, officials kept an evacuation order in place for the island chain's 79,000 residents.

The last Category 5 storm to make landfall in the Caribbean was Hurricane David, which killed more than 1,000 people and devastated the Dominican Republic in 1979, Mojica said.

Only three Category 5 storms are known to have hit the United States. The last was Hurricane Andrew, which hit South Florida in 1992, killing 43 people and causing more than $30 billion in damage.

Associated Press reporters Loren Brown in Grenada, Stevenson Jacobs and Peter Prengaman in Jamaica, and Vanessa Arrington and Andrea Rodriguez in Cuba contributed to this report.

 

 
  2100 SAT SEP 04 Tropical Storm
Ivan
9.1N 40.8W W 17 994 50
  0300 SUN SEP 05 Tropical Storm
Ivan
9.4N 42.2W W 16 991 60
  0900 SUN SEP 05 Hurricane
Ivan
9.7N 44.3W W 18 987 65
  1500 SUN SEP 05 Hurricane
Ivan
9.9N 46W W 18 980 75
  1700 SUN SEP 05 Hurricane
Ivan
10.1N 46.6W W 18 960 100
  800 WED SEP 08 Hurricane Ivan           145
  700 THUR SEP 09 Hurricane Ivan           150

US Forecasts

9-7-04

9-09-04

 

9-10-04

TRACK MOVES WEST
9-14-04

Posted on Sun, Sep. 05, 2004


Hurricane Ivan Forms in Central Atlantic




Associated Press

Even as Frances battered Florida, another hurricane formed Sunday in the central Atlantic with a potential for following a path similar to the one that Frances followed.

"You might want to be smart about whether you take down your shutters," Miami-Dade County manager George Burgess said Sunday at a briefing on the aftermath of Frances.

With top sustained wind of nearly 85 mph, Hurricane Ivan was about 2,500 miles east-southeast of Miami early Sunday, too far away to tell with any certainty whether it would hit the continental United States, the National Hurricane Center said.

However, particularly after the back-to-back hurricanes Charley and Frances, Floridians should monitor the storm, forecasters said.

Ivan was moving west at about 21 mph and was expected to turn gradually toward the west-northwest. It was expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday and reach the Bahamas by Friday, following a path similar to but south of Frances' track.

Both Ivan and Frances formed as tropical storms near Cape Verde off the African coast, an area known as a breeding ground for storms that become big hurricanes.

"They tend to be stronger systems, just because they have such a great environment to grow in as they cross the Atlantic," said Eric Holweg, a meteorologist at the hurricane center.

Hurricane Charley hit Florida's southwest coast with 145 mph wind on Aug. 13 and crossed the state, killing 27 people and causing billions of dollars in damage. On Sunday, Hurricane Frances made landfall near Stuart with 105 mph wind.

ON THE NET

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

THREE STRIKES

9-7-04

If Ivan hits the state, it will be the first time since 1964 that three hurricanes smacked Florida in the same year. And September and October tend to be among the most active months of the six-month hurricane season that ends Nov. 30.

''The season is still young,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade. ``It certainly seems from my perspective that we're in the active period that has been predicted. The only surprise is that Florida hasn't been hit more often in the last few years.''

A sobering thought: Between 1941 and 1950, seven major hurricanes -- with winds higher than 110 mph -- attacked Florida. ''And that doesn't include the other [less powerful] hurricanes,'' Goldenberg said. That 10-year period fell in the middle of a cycle of heightened activity that began in 1926 and persisted until 1970.

Now, the combination of complacency bred during a long lull between 1971 and 1994, the new hyperactivity since 1995 and the ongoing mega-development of Florida's coasts frightens emergency managers and scientists.

''The implications are much-increased damage when storms make landfall,'' Goldenberg said, ``and the potential for major loss of life in the event of an evacuation foul-up during a rapidly intensifying storm.''

He has more than academic interest in this. Goldenberg and his family were nearly killed when Hurricane Andrew crushed their South Dade home in 1992.

DISTINCT PATTERNS

Research he later conducted with NOAA scientist Chris Landsea, private expert William Gray and others found distinct patterns of low-activity hurricane periods and high-activity periods, each of which endured for decades. These patterns, unrelated to the current concern over global warming, are caused by regular cycles of oceanic and atmospheric phenomena, such as unusually warm water in hurricane breeding grounds.

One period of ''hyperactivity'' ended in 1970 and was followed by a 24-year lull. The new period of heightened activity began in 1995 and could last for another 10 to 30 years, according to their report, which was reviewed by peers and published in 2001 in the journal Science.

MAJOR STORMS

In the past few years, and particularly this year, the statistics related to the number, power and duration of storms appear to verify the report's depressing conclusions, especially when major hurricanes are considered.

This is significant because, though relatively few in number, major hurricanes -- Category 3 or higher -- cause 80 percent of all damage from tropical weather.

''We're not talking about stronger hurricanes than in the past,'' Goldenberg said. ``We're talking about more of the stronger hurricanes.''

The long-term average, including relatively quiet periods and busy periods, is 2.6 major hurricanes a year.

Between 1971 and 1994, only four years had more than two major hurricanes and none had more than three. Between 1995 and 2003, a much shorter period, seven years had three or more major hurricanes. And we've already had four major storms this year -- Alex, Charley, Frances and Ivan.

All the other numbers tell the same tale: total storms, total strength, total duration, Caribbean hurricanes, October and November hurricanes are each at least 100 percent -- and in some cases 500 or 1,000 percent -- higher since the lull.

''That's a humongous increase,'' Goldenberg said. ``This is striking. This is not a little signal. It would be like saying the average temperature is 15 degrees warmer than last summer. It's huge. It's huge.''

Worse, atmospheric steering currents have changed to our disadvantage.

During the beginning of this active period, a persistent and beneficial bend in the jet stream carried hurricanes away from Florida. Now, that phenomenon has disappeared, replaced by a persistent ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic that is pushing them toward Florida.

What can you do?

Only one thing: Prepare.

''People should realize that, active year or slow year, we can still get hit,'' Goldenberg said. ``Remember, Andrew hit during a below-average year. The higher activity is just all the more reason to remind people that they can't let their guard down.''

Herald staff writer Mary Ellen Klas contributed to this report.

 
Hurricane Ivan devastates Grenada
Three deaths reported; Storm heading for Jamaica
MSNBC News Services
Updated: 9:25 a.m. ET Sept. 8, 2004


ST. GEORGE’S, Grenada - Hurricane Ivan made a direct hit on Grenada Wednesday, killing at least three people as it turned concrete homes into piles of rubble and hurled the island’s landmark red zinc roofs through the air.

The most powerful storm to hit the Caribbean in 10 years and the ninth storm in a busy Atlantic hurricane season also damaged homes in Barbados, St. Lucia and St. Vincent, just days after Hurricane Frances rampaged through and went on to cause massive damage in Florida.

Ivan strengthened even as it was over Grenada on Tuesday, becoming a Category 4 storm and getting even more powerful as it headed across the Caribbean Sea on a projected route to bear down on Jamaica late Thursday.

The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency based in Barbados said Wednesday three confirmed deaths were blamed on the storm but it had lost contact with Grenada’s emergency officials before getting more details.

As it crossed the fragile Windward Islands of the Caribbean Tuesday, Ivan tore down trees, blew off roofs, knocked out power and forced thousands of people to evacuate coastal areas.

It hit hardest in the former British colony of Grenada, a volcanic island of 90,000 people and a major source of nutmeg, cloves and other spices.

Shirley Bahadur / AP

The storm destroyed Grenada’s emergency operations center and the home of Prime Minister Dr. Keith Mitchell, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency said.

Ivan damaged Grenada’s main hospital and several of its hurricane shelters, forcing some of the 1,000 people who sought refuge there to move to other shelters.

“The capital of St. George's suffered incalculable damage,” the regional inter-governmental agency said.

Regional aid groups and utility crews were being sent to Grenada and a British Navy ship was readied to provide aid, the agency said.

In Barbados, a former British colony of 278,000, Ivan felled trees and power lines, hurled debris around and damaged 220 houses. It blew the roof off the landmark Atlantis hotel, built in 1884 on the seafront at St. Joseph, and damaged the roof of a new hangar near the airport housing a preserved Concorde jet. Most of Barbados was without electricity.

“I’m feeling glad that it didn’t hit us in full,” said Shellie Welch of Christchurch in the south of Barbados, who sat out the storm at home with her two children. “I’m just imagining what if it did, because the houses here aren’t built all that strong.”

On the resort isle of Tobago, the storm ripped off dozens of roofs in 14 villages and knocked out power. The twin-island nation of Trinidad and Tobago has a population of 1.1 million and is the Caribbean’s top oil producer.

Trinidad was largely spared, but its energy companies evacuated workers from offshore oil platforms and halted production before the storm hit. Atlantic LNG stopped export shipments as the storm approached Trinidad, which is the largest liquefied natural gas supplier to the United States.

In St. Lucia and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, residents packed into shelters, fearing their houses might not withstand the heavy rain and winds.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Dr. Ralph Gonsalves said the storm tore the roof off a hospital and damaged several houses on Union Island.

“The sea has come in and removed a couple of houses. Apparently there were waves of up to 20 feet (six meters) high so that has been very terrible,” Gonsalves told a Trinidad television station.

Ivan spun off squalls that battered Venezuela’s coastline. Officials in northeastern Sucre State and nearby Margarita Island moved residents away from risky coastal areas, restricted air and sea traffic and closed some airports and harbors, Civil Protection Service chief Antonio Rivero said.

The hurricane center’s long-range forecast, which has a large margin of error, put the storm over Jamaica on Friday and southwestern Cuba on Sunday.

Farther north in Florida, residents and authorities worried that Ivan could become the third hurricane to hit the state in a month, after Charley pummeled the southwest coast on Aug. 13 and Frances lumbered over the east coast on the weekend.

Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report
 

Ivan now a category 5 storm; Florida at risk, Keys orders evacuation




Miami Herald

Hurricane Ivan exploded into a top-line Category 5 storm this morning, hurricane forecasters said Florida -- including South Florida -- appeared to be in great danger, and officials in the Florida Keys ordered the first phase of a total evacuation.

They told tourists and residents of mobile homes to leave today. They said a phased evacuation of all other Keys residents will begin Friday. At least 83,000 residents and tourists are in the Keys this week, officials said.

Unbelievably, the state was imperiled by another major hurricane, and it was the strongest yet.

Already a killer storm that pulverized Grenada, Ivan developed 160 mph winds overnight as it curved toward Jamaica, Cuba and Florida.

Officials in the Keys employed the strongest possible terms as they urged people to obey orders to flee.

If the storm doesn't weaken substantially or veer away, said Irene Toner, Monroe County's director of emergency management, ``We aren't talking minor flooding. We are talking your home under the water.

''Anyone who thinks this is going to be a picnic or something to tell their grandchildren about, they may not be around to tell their grandchildren about it,'' she said.

Though Florida remained several days away and many things could change, computerized forecast models -- and the official long-term forecast -- brought the storm over the Florida Keys and South Florida on Monday. Local forecasters alerted the region to expect gusty winds and rain bands as early as Sunday.

''The spread is much less than it has been over the previous two to three days,'' said forecaster Stacy Stewart of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ``Unfortunately, the model spread still brackets the Florida peninsula.''

And Ivan was extremely dangerous. It killed at least 12 people in Grenada and proved deadly in Tobago and Venezuela.

In the Keys, emergency managers ordered all tourists and owners of recreational vehicles to leave the island chain beginning at 9 a.m. All residents of mobile homes were ordered to leave beginning at 6 p.m.

It was the first stage of a mass evacuation that will include an airlift of hospital patients.

With only one road leading to safety, officials said they would need at least 36 hours to get everyone out of the way of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. The forecast track this morning looked increasingly discouraging for the Keys. Officials announced that county and state parks would close today; schools will be closed Friday.

''They're coming at us from every direction,'' Billy Wagner Sr., Monroe County's senior director of emergency management, said of this season's hurricanes.

Evacuations of varying degrees were ordered in the Keys in recent weeks for hurricanes Charley and Frances. Around the state, tens of thousands of people are still trying to recover from those natural disasters -- and now another seems to be on the way.

Three hurricanes have not pummeled Florida in the same year since 1964.

''It looks like we're going to have to go through the drill again,'' said Max Mayfield, the hurricane center's director. ``Would someone please turn off the hurricane switch?''

Ivan's ferocious eye blasted Grenada with winds so strong Tuesday they flattened concrete houses, including the home of Prime Minister Keith Mitchell. ''We are terribly devastated here in Grenada,'' Mitchell said in a radio broadcast. ``It's beyond any imagination.''

Ivan also damaged 221 homes in Barbados and left many residents without water and electricity, according to officials at the Caribbean disaster agency in Barbados. Other islands, such as St. Lucia, sustained less severe damage.

As the storm moved on, forecasters warned of flooding rains in Haiti and the Dominican Republic from Ivan's outlying but potent squalls. Hurricane watches and warnings were in place in portions of those countries and Venezuela and Columbia.

But the worst was still ahead -- the heavily populated islands of Jamaica and Cuba and the state of Florida.

Forecasters predicted that Ivan would strike Jamaica on Friday and Cuba on Sunday, passing over or close to Havana.

Though intensity is difficult to predict, in both cases Ivan was expected to have winds of about 155 mph at landfall in Jamaica and 145 mph at landfall in Cuba -- a strong Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, capable of inflicting death and catastrophic damage.

The most recent forecast tracks suggested a path toward South Florida, but forecasters said it was too early to achieve any degree of precision.

''It's going to be too close for comfort,'' said forecaster Jack Beven.

That message was heard loud and clear. At a Holiday Inn near Miami International Airport, where many stranded travelers waited out Frances last week, this was displayed on an electric sign: ``IVAN GO AWAY''

Posted on Thu, Sep. 09, 2004


Ivan kills 12, damages homes in Grenada

- (AP) -- Hurricane Ivan killed at least 12 people in Grenada, damaged nearly all its homes and destroyed a prison, leaving criminals on the loose, officials said.

Details on the extent of destruction in Grenada did not come through until Wednesday because the storm cut communications with the country of 100,000 people.

''If you see the country today, it would be a surprise to anyone that we did not have more deaths than it appears at the moment,'' Prime Minister Keith Mitchell said.

Mitchell confirmed that the escapees included some of the 17 jailed for life for killings during a Marxist palace coup in 1983 but didn't know which ones.

Mitchell said 90 percent of homes were damaged and he feared the death toll would rise. He said much of the country's agriculture had been destroyed, including its primary export crop, nutmeg.


Killer storm's targets include Florida


mmerzer@herald.com

Already a killer storm that pulverized Grenada, Hurricane Ivan intensified as it headed toward Jamaica and Cuba -- and a deepening sense of gloom settled Wednesday night on hurricane forecasters and emergency managers in Florida.

Unbelievably, the state was imperiled by another major hurricane.

By Wednesday night, Ivan was an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane with winds of 145 mph. Forecasters said it could grow into a rare Category 5 monster -- like Andrew -- with winds higher than 155 mph. It killed at least 12 people in Grenada and proved deadly in Tobago and Venezuela.

Ivan could be near the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida by Sunday night or Monday morning, forecasters said. Virtually every computerized forecast model had it making landfall next week somewhere in the storm-weary state. South Florida remained deeply embedded in the cone of probability.

''It looks like we're going to have to go through the drill again,'' said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County. ``Would someone please turn off the hurricane switch?''

In the Keys, emergency managers began planning a possible mass evacuation, which might include an airlift of hospital patients out of the island chain.

With only one road leading to safety, officials said they would need at least 36 hours to get everyone out of the way of a Category 4 hurricane. The forecast track Wednesday night looked increasingly discouraging for the Keys. A decision might come today.

''This could be the third time I have to close a community,'' said Billy Wagner Sr., Monroe County's senior director of emergency management. ``They're coming at us from every direction.''

Evacuations of varying degrees were ordered in the Keys in recent weeks for hurricanes Charley and Frances. Around the state, tens of thousands of people are still trying to recover from those natural disasters -- and now another seems to be on the way.

Three hurricanes have not pummeled Florida in the same year since 1964 -- and Ivan could be the mightiest of the three.

Its ferocious eye blasted Grenada with winds so strong Tuesday they flattened concrete houses, including the home of Prime Minister Keith Mitchell. ''We are terribly devastated here in Grenada,'' Mitchell said in a radio broadcast. ``It's beyond any imagination.''

Ivan also damaged 221 homes in Barbados and left many residents without water and electricity, according to officials at the Caribbean disaster agency in Barbados. Other islands, such as St. Lucia, sustained less severe damage.

As the storm moved on, forecasters warned of flooding rains in Haiti and the Dominican Republic from Ivan's outlying but potent squalls. Hurricane watches and warnings were in place in portions of those countries and Venezuela and Colombia.

But the worst was still ahead -- the heavily populated islands of Jamaica and Cuba and the state of Florida.

Forecasters predicted that Ivan would strike Jamaica on Friday and Cuba on Sunday, passing over or close to Havana.

Though intensity is difficult to predict, in both cases Ivan was expected to have winds of about 145 mph at landfall -- a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, capable of inflicting death and catastrophic damage.

The most recent forecast tracks suggested a path toward Florida's Gulf Coast, but forecasters said a direct strike on South Florida was possible. They said it was too early to achieve that degree of precision concerning where Ivan would reach the mainland.

''It's going to be too close for comfort,'' forecaster Jack Beven said.

That message was heard loud and clear. At a Holiday Inn near Miami International Airport, where many stranded travelers waited out Frances last week, this was displayed on an electric sign: ``IVAN GO AWAY''

Herald staff writers Jennifer Babson and Michael A.W. Ottey contributed to this report.

Posted: Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:22 am

Hurricane Ivan will be the third hurricane to hit Florida in a 30 day period. With all the military troops occupying the southern part of Florida - below the line from Tampa to Daytona Beach first called the MICKEY MOUSE LINE - another destructive hurricane will put this former state in open and complete military control (Martial Law) for the "good" of the citizens. Homeland Security will have its first major test of widespread control.

The MOUSE LINE is nothing new as it was established in the later 1960's by military strategists before the current FEMA ever became a Federal executive department. FEMA originally stood for Federal Emergency MILITARY ACTION. The scenario since day one [not long after the Cuban Missile Crisis] was that if "national security" warranted it, everything below the MOUSE LINE would be a military zone... a civilian "no-man's land."

What can be expected? When a FEMA truck showed up with ice in Southeastern Florida 2 nights ago, a clash took place between the local Chief of Police and FEMA officials. The townspeople had been waiting in line for up to 7 hours for ice at a FEMA emergency distribution point when the truck showed up, but FEMA officials insisted it be distributed the next morning. The local Police Chief said that if it wasn't distributed immediately, he would instruct his armed police officers to distribute it. FEMA caved in to avoid an open conflict.

But after IVAN hits Florida, FEMA will no longer cave in to any local civil authority as they will have open Federal "authority" from both the BUSH BROS to rule all local towns and counties below the MOUSE LINE. CAMP CHARLIE in Charlotte County has done this already whereby local EMS, EOS, and law enforcement must answer to FEMA-Homeland Security. Florida is currently designated as a Federal Disaster Area and the Federal Military already has full authority to "occupy" and rule over all local authorities.

If you don't think this amounts to anything, wait until IVAN hits. The roadblocks are already in place below the MOUSE LINE. People are already complaining about being denied access to their own property because they don't have sufficient ID.

What all of us who live here have experienced since August 13 is called a FEDERAL POLICE STATE. When IVAN hits between 9-11 and 9-13, the Federal Emergency Military Action will be in total open control.
EVACUATIONS ORDERED IN FLORIDA KEYS

MSNBC staff and news service reports

Updated: 8:57 a.m. ET Sept. 9, 2004

KEY WEST, Florida - Although Hurricane Ivan is at least four days from Florida, if it reaches the state at all, officials in the Keys on Thursday ordered tourists and residents to evacuate.

Monroe County emergency officials said the order was effective at 9 a.m. Thursday for island tourists. It is the third visitor evacuation ordered in the Keys in a month, the previous two coming for Hurricanes Charley and Frances.

Mobile home residents were urged to begin evacuating at 6 p.m. Thursday, and other residents were told to leave Friday.

The strongest storm so far this season with 160 mph winds, Hurricane Ivan has already devastated Grenada, where it was blamed for at least 15 fatalities.

The storm strengthened early Thursday to become a Category 5 on a scale of 1 to 5. It packed sustained winds of 160 mph with higher gusts as it passed north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

Ivan is expected to reach Jamaica by Friday, Cuba by the weekend, and possibly the Florida coast by early Monday.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Ivan “could still intensify a little more this morning."

"After Jamaica, it's probably going to hit somewhere in the U.S., unfortunately," meteorologist Jennifer Pralgo said. "We're hoping it's not Florida again, but it's taking a fairly similar track to Charley at the moment."

Hurricane Charley killed 27 people in southwest Florida last month and caused an estimated $6.8 billion in insured damage. Hurricane Frances hit the state last weekend, causing several billion dollars in damage and taking 19 lives in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

Another meteorologist at the Miami center, Hugh Cobb, added this grim warning: "Whoever gets this, it's going to be bad."

90 percent of Grenada homes hit
Ivan damaged 90 percent of homes in Grenada and destroyed a 17th century stone prison that left criminals on the loose as looting erupted.

Some escaped convicts included politicians jailed for killings in a 1983 left-wing palace coup that led the United States to invade.

American medical students fearful of marauders armed themselves with knives and sticks.

"We are terribly devastated ... It's beyond imagination," Prime Minister Keith Mitchell told his people and the world -- from aboard a British Royal Navy vessel that rushed to the rescue. Ivan was the most powerful hurricane to hit the Caribbean in 10 years.

Before it slammed into Grenada on Tuesday, Ivan gave Barbados and St. Vincent a pummeling, damaging hundreds of homes and cutting utilities. Thousands of people remained without electricity and water on Wednesday.

In Tobago, officials reported a 32-year-old pregnant woman died when a 40-foot palm tree fell into her home, pinning her to her bed.

In Venezuela, a 32-year-old man died after battering waves engulfed a store on the northern coast.

A 75-year-old Canadian woman was found drowned in a canal swollen by flood waters in Barbados. Neighbors said the Toronto native, who'd lived in Barbados for 30 years, had braved the storm to search for her cat.

Details on the extent of the death and destruction in Grenada did not emerge until Wednesday because the storm cut all communications with the country of 100,000 people, and halted radio transmissions on the island.

Grenada death toll could rise
Prime Minister Mitchell, whose own home was flattened, said 90 percent of houses on the island were damaged and he feared the death toll would rise. He said much of the country's agriculture had been destroyed, including the primary nutmeg crop.

"If you see the country today, it would be a surprise to anyone that we did not have more deaths than it appears at the moment," Mitchell said.

“We have got a tremendous hit that we never expected -- you are talking hundreds of millions of dollars of damage," Mitchell later told BBC Radio. "We have declared the country a national disaster, contacted our international friends and indicated that."

Within hours, Grenada's Police Commissioner Roy Bedaau raised the death toll to 12, but he provided no details.

The United Nations is sending a disaster team, Eckhard said in New York City. The Caribbean disaster response agency, based in Barbados, said its team arrived Wednesday afternoon along with U.S. aid and Pan American Health Organization officials.

Because of poor communications, it was not possible to reach any of them.

"It looks like a landslide happened," said Nicole Organ, a veterinary student from Toronto at St. George's University, which overlooks the Grenadian capital. "There are all these colors coming down the mountainside -- sheets of metal, pieces of shacks, roofs came off in layers."

Students arm themselves
Students there, mostly Americans, were arming themselves with knives, sticks and pepper spray against looters, said Sonya Lazarevic, 36, from New York City. "We don't feel safe," she said on a bad telephone line.

When Organ wandered downtown after the hurricane passed, she said she saw bands of men carrying machetes looting a hardware store. She said she saw a bank with a glass facade intact on her way down that was totally smashed when she returned.

While the storm passed, students hid under mattresses or in bathrooms. "The pipes were whistling, the doors were vibrating, gusts were coming underneath the window," Lazarevic said. "It was absolutely terrifying."

Bedaau said every Grenadian police station was damaged, hindering efforts to control looting. He said police were trying to set up a temporary post at St. George's fish market, and that Trinidad and other Caribbean countries were sending troops.

Elsewhere, Ivan pulverized concrete homes into piles of rubble and tore away hundreds of landmark red zinc roofs.

 
  Related coverage

Jamaica, Haiti could see devastation
Cobb, the U.S. National Hurricane Center forecaster, said not even a Category 4 storm had hit the Caribbean since Hurricane Luis in 1995.

He said that if Ivan hit Jamaica, it could be more destructive than Hurricane Gilbert, which was only Category 3 when it devastated the island in 1988.

Jamaica posted a hurricane watch and ordered all schools closed and fishermen to pull their skiffs ashore and head for dry land. Haiti's southwest peninsula was on hurricane watch and the city of Les Cayes had already suffered hours of drenching downpours Wednesday night.

Les Cayes residents worried Ivan would bring disaster equal to May floods that killed 1,700 people and left 1,600 missing and presumed dead along the Haiti-Dominican Republic border.

The southwest coast of Haiti and Dominican Republic were under hurricane and tropical storm watch. Cayman Islands posted a hurricane watch. A hurricane warning remained in effect for Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao. Colombia's northeastern Guajira peninsula and Venezuela's north coast were under hurricane watch and tropical storm warning.

At 8 a.m. ET, Ivan was centered about 455 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 60 miles and tropical storm-force winds another 160 miles. Ivan was moving west-northwest at 15 mph.

Ivan last Sunday became the fourth major hurricane of a busy Atlantic season.

The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
 
Hurricane Ivan Nears Jamaica, Kills 23

9-9-04

By IAN JAMES, Associated Press Writer

ST. GEORGE'S, Grenada - Hurricane Ivan took aim Thursday at Jamaica and possibly Florida after killing 23 people in five countries and devastating Grenada, where police fired tear gas to stop a looting frenzy and frightened students armed themselves with knives and sticks.

Ivan, the deadliest hurricane to hit the Caribbean in a decade, pummeled Grenada, Barbados and other southern islands on Tuesday. On Thursday, it strengthened into a Category 5 storm — the most powerful, with 160 mph winds — and was expected to hit Jamaica, where officials urged a half million people to evacuate coastal and flood-prone areas, on Friday.

The dead included a 75-year-old Canadian woman who drowned in a canal swollen by flood waters in Barbados after going out in the storm to search for her cat, and four youngsters in the capital of the Dominican Republic who were swept away by a giant wave Thursday even though the storm was nearly 200 miles from land.

U.S. officials ordered people to evacuate the Florida Keys after forecasters said the storm — the fourth major hurricane of a busy Atlantic season — could hit the island chain by Sunday after crossing over Cuba. It was the third evacuation ordered there in a month, following Hurricane Charley and hard on the heels of Hurricane Frances.

Officials were also considering evacuating the 1,000 American citizens in Grenada, mostly university students who said they want to leave.

The storm left its worst damage in Grenada, where from the air it appeared that nearly every house had been ripped up. Hunks of twisted metal and splintered wood torn from homes were strewn across the hillsides and roads of this country of 100,000 people. Many trees were snapped off, and those left standing were stripped of their leaves. The stone walls of the capital's cathedral withstood the storm, but the entire roof had caved in.

In St. George's, Grenada's capital, police fired tear gas to try to stop a looting frenzy. Hundreds of people, including entire families with children, smashed hurricane shutters and shop windows to take televisions and shopping carts of food. An Associated Press reporter watched people walk away with bed frames and mattresses on their heads.

Troops from other Caribbean nations were on the way to help restore order.

Thursday afternoon, police set up barricades on roads leading into the capital and ordered all but emergency personnel off the streets. Hundreds of screaming and shoving people said they had to get to town to buy water and food. Police fired more tear gas.

But many managed to get through, saying they were desperate for water.

Among them was Dawn Brown, a 30-year-old housewife, who said she and her children ran from room to room in her home as Ivan ripped off sections of their roof. Eventually, the house was left roofless and the family hid beneath a mattress as its 130-mph winds howled around them.

"I stared death in its face. What could be more scary than that?" Brown said as she wandered the streets in search of water. The island has had no running water since Monday, when officials turned it off to save the plant from damage.

Hurricane Ivan ripped up nearly every utility pole, leaving residents without electricity and landline telephone service. Patchy cellular phone service was restored Thursday.

The first shipment of emergency relief arrived Thursday from the United States, which declared Grenada a disaster area to allow the immediate release of $50,000. There were enough blankets, plastic sheeting, dry food and water for 20,000 people, according to the U.S. Embassy in Barbados.

"I want to be home where I can feel safe," said Lesleigh Redavid, 22, a St. George's University student from Port Jefferson, N.Y. "It was a really scary. Our room flooded and we were in pitch black with windows shattering around us. We have no candles, no flashlights or batteries."

On Wednesday night, students armed themselves with knives and sticks, fearing they would be attacked by looters.

In Jamaica, hundreds of tourists packed the airport of Montego Bay resort.

"Seeing other people panicked, I panicked as well," said Blanca Surino, 21, who was trying to persuade frazzled airport personnel to put her on a flight home to Los Angeles.

At the airport of Kingston, the capital, dozens of foreigners lined up for tickets.

"We were going to stick it out but the company I work for told everybody to evacuate," said Dennis Hennessey, 39, a building contractor from Essex Junction, Vermont, who was helping build the new U.S. Embassy.

"They say Jamaica is a blessed place, and I hope it is," he said.

Workers began bolting plywood boards to windows, and most businesses closed early. Grocery stores and gas stations stayed open for long lines of people stocking up against the storm.

In the seaside town of Port Royal, just outside Kingston, fishermen pulled wooden skiffs ashore as menacing storm clouds rolled in. The town of squat concrete homes and zinc roofs was nearly wiped out by Hurricane Charley in 1951.

"It's Ivan the Terrible," said fisherman Peter Kission, 47. "We've been through this before. We can take another."

But 50-year-old Port Royal native Gabby Bess wasn't so sure. "If it hits us like Gilbert did, we'll be in a whole heap of trouble."

Hurricane Gilbert was only a Category 3 storm when it devastated Jamaica in 1988.

At 2 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Ivan was centered about 360 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 60 miles and tropical storm-force winds another 160 miles. Ivan was moving west-northwest at 15 mph.

Ivan's outer bands hit Barbados' south coast on Tuesday, damaging some 220 homes. It also tore roofs from dozens of homes in St. Lucia and in Tobago, where a woman died. Its heavy rains flooded parts of Venezuela's coast and left four Venezuelans dead.

In Grenada, it killed 13 people and British sailors were treating about 100 injured at the hospital, where they restored generator power Thursday.

The British patrol boat HMS Richmond and a supply ship rushed to Grenada on Wednesday and provided communications for Prime Minister Keith Mitchell, whose home was damaged. Sailors said they had cleared the damaged and flooded airport runway for emergency flights.

Every major building in the capital, which boasts English Georgian and French provincial architecture, has suffered structural damage, U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard said Wednesday.

Also devastated was the "spice isle's" agriculture, including its famous nutmeg crop, Mitchell said.

He also confirmed that the 17th century stone prison was "completely devastated," allowing convicts to escape, including politicians jailed for 20 years for killings in a 1983 left-wing palace coup that led the United States to invade. Nineteen Americans died in the fighting along with 45 Grenadians and 24 Cubans.

Ivan's outer bands brought drenching rain to Haiti's southwest peninsula overnight, where residents of sea-level Les Cayes town worried it would bring disaster equal to May floods that killed 1,700 people and left 1,600 missing and presumed dead along the Haiti-Dominican Republic border.

___

On the Net:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical

OH, GRENADA

Grenada in ruins
By DARREN BAHAW

Thursday, September 9th 2004  

THE STENCH of death hovered over Grenada yesterday as islanders cowered together in makeshift tents to spend the night in the wake of Hurricane Ivan, which has left a trail of destruction and fear among the population of just over 96,000 people.

There were confirmed reports of over 24 deaths up to late last night and the death toll was expected to climb.

Late yesterday, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) received reports "of a serious security situation" and members of the Regional Security System were deployed to assist in maintaining law and order.

A curfew was imposed on the island last night to keep people off the streets as security forces moved to restore order.

"We are terribly devastated here in Grenada," Prime Minister Keith Mitchell said in comments broadcast yesterday by radio stations in Barbados. "It's beyond any imagination."

"If you see the country today, it would be a surprise to anyone that we did not have more deaths than it appears at the moment," he said. "So, it is extremely tough on us."

Mitchell, whose own home was destroyed, spoke from aboard the British naval patrol vessel HMS Richmond, apparently by satellite telephone.

"I don't think anyone expected the kind of damage that they saw," he said.

Opposition Member of Parliament Kenrick Fullerton told the Express via cellular telephone that there had been widespread looting at the country's second largest town at Grenville and news of a prison break had caused panic among citizens already traumatised by the loss of their homes and loved ones.

Fullerton said entire houses had been rooted from their foundations and were strewn across the roads in a mass tangle of trees, utility poles and other debris, making the network of roads impassable.

In his constituency of South East St Andrew, Fullerton reported four deaths, two involving elderly persons.

"We were not adequately prepared," Fullerton said, adding that many people had ignored the warning to prepare themselves.

"It was a case of the child that cried wolf too many times," he admitted, saying that many residents told him that they had made efforts in the past to secure their homes and family to no avail.

"I kept telling them, 'This one is bad...This one will come' but they ignored me," Fullerton said.

He said at least 90 per cent of the houses and businesses in his area had been totally or partially destroyed as their roofs of galvanised iron had been ripped off by winds estimated at over 120 miles per hour, which battered the 133 square mile country for close to three hours on Tuesday evening.

As he spoke to the Express, Fullerton said he was walking some two miles away from his home to get to an area where two dead bodies lay. He said one elderly woman suffered a heart attack at one of the designated shelters and died, and three men were casualties of the hurricane.

Fullerton said there was a complete breakdown in law and order and Grenadians rampaged through several businesses including Andall's and Associates, a supermarket, and a Courts furniture store, moving off with any item they could carry.

He said many people were refusing to leave the remains of their home to go to shelters, fearing that looters would cart off what was left.

Fullerton said the destruction of several nutmeg fields, one of the main export products of Grenada, "would cause this country to go back by 30 years".

He said entire chicken farms had been destroyed and the stench of rotting birds posed a health hazard, while efforts were being made to lodge dead bodies at one funeral home which was still functioning.

Fullerton said he had been updated by news reports emanating from Trinidad and Tobago since all of the radio and television stations, including the Grenada Broadcasting Network, owned by the Caribbean Communications Network, had been off the air.

In the capital city of St George's, the situation was worse, according to a Grenadian living in Trinidad, who had been in contact with his relatives.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the Grenadian reported that almost 90 per cent of all the houses and businesses in the capital city had been destroyed and businesses such as Bryden and Minors was cleaned out by looters.

He said all food stores and hardware stores were targeted as owners stood by helplessly.

Eric Mackie, the past president of the Trinidad and Tobago Amateur Radio Society, who had been in contact with at least seven radio operators in Grenada, said reports suggested that at least 85 yachts were unaccounted for.

Mackie said one operator reported that an entire marina, Class Court, had disappeared, some three miles of Brickley Bay.

 
Troops patrol streets in hurricane-ravaged Grenada
Fri 10 September, 2004 17:37

By Linda Hutchinson-Jafar

PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad (Reuters) - Troops secured buildings against looters, and authorities have imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew, as the tiny Caribbean island of Grenada struggled to recover from Hurricane Ivan's devastating strike.

Grenadians roamed the streets on Friday on foot or in cars with smashed windshields looking for scarce water, food and gasoline, while Ivan marched on toward Jamaica with 145 mph (233 kph) winds,

Authorities said an estimated 90 percent of the homes on the southeastern Caribbean spice island were damaged by Ivan, which struck on Tuesday and killed at least 17 people.

The Grenadian government issued an urgent international appeal for help, including tents, tarpaulins, cots, blankets and building supplies to help shelter an estimated 60,000 of the island's 90,000 people.

"We have been hit extremely hard and it is a very tough one for the country and people are dazed at this particular time, but we are trying to handle it as best we can," said Prime Minister Keith Mitchell. His official residence was so badly damaged he was forced to move for a time to the British Navy ship Richmond off the coast.

About 200 troops from neighbouring countries were helping Grenada's security forces put down rampant looting in St. George's, the capital of the former British colony.

Electricity and water were out of commission. The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) said authorities expected to have water flowing by the weekend.

Beds and chairs were drying in the sun, witnesses told reporters on neighbouring islands. Trees were stripped of fruit and branches and power lines hung from teetering poles.

The only two buildings left relatively unscathed were Grenada General Hospital and Government Headquarters.

Damage to the nutmeg industry appeared extensive, Mitchell said earlier. Grenada is one of the world's leading producers of nutmeg.

"Seeing this situation, one cannot feel that the response should be more than overwhelming," CDERA director Jeremy Collymore said.

CDERA put the Grenada death toll at 17. A U.S. State Department official had said earlier this week that the storm killed 20.

Aircraft and boats carrying relief supplies from the International Federation of the Red Cross and the U.S. government were expected on Friday. Washington warned travellers away from Grenada.

CDERA said the control tower at Point Salines International Airport was damaged but the air-traffic control equipment was intact. The airport was open only to emergency relief flights.

Mitchell told reporters that two of the prisoners involved in a 1983 Marxist coup in Grenada, which prompted a U.S. invasion of the island, escaped from Richmond Hill prison when it was partly destroyed by the hurricane. He said coup leader Bernard Coard did not try to escape.

Sept. 10, 2004

Jamaicans brace themselves for Hurricane Ivan, expected to make a direct hit on the island Friday afternoon. On Thursday, the Category 4 storm devastated Grenada, killing 13 people and damaging most of the homes on the island. Hear NPR's Renee Montagne and Peter David, a member of parliament in Grenada.

Flight From Keys Begins as Storm Hits Jamaica

By JOSEPH B. TREASTER

Published: September 11, 2004

KINGSTON, Jamaica, Sept. 10 - Hurricane Ivan lashed Jamaica on Friday with powerful winds and driving rains, knocking down power lines and trees and ripping off tin roofs, as officials in Florida stepped up their efforts to evacuate the Florida Keys.

"Ivan is definitely here," Evan Thompson, a division chief at the national meteorological service in Kingston said an interview with Radio Jamaica. "We are definitely in the midst of a hurricane."

At 11 p.m., the eye of the hurricane was 35 miles south of Kingston and maximum sustained winds had increased to almost 155 miles per hour, with higher gusts, the National Hurricane Center in Miami reported. The center described it as "an extremely dangerous hurricane" that was approaching Category 5 strength, a storm with winds greater than 155 m.p.h.

As heavy rain blanketed Kingston, the capital, gunshots were heard and there were unconfirmed reports of looting. In the resort town of Montego Bay, the police said they had arrested several people for looting. In the hills above Kingston, the downpour touched off mudslides that blocked roads.

Barbara Carby, director general of the country's Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management, told Radio Jamaica her agency had received "many, many calls" from people who had lost roofs. Her advice: "Get in a closet or the bathtub and pull mattresses over you."

Following on the heels of Hurricanes Charley and Frances, Hurricane Ivan is the third powerful storm to plow through the Caribbean and southern Atlantic in the past four weeks. Already, weary and frustrated residents of Florida were bracing for yet another hit even as they continued to try to restore power and clean up damage from last week's storm, while residents and tourists in Jamaica were praying that Hurricane Ivan's powerful winds would not damage that island the way it did Grenada earlier in the week.

In Cuba, President Fidel Castro declared an islandwide hurricane watch. In Kingston, the streets were empty as night fell except for a few cars scurrying for cover past boarded and taped storefronts and homes.

At the request of Prime Minister P. J. Patterson, a state of emergency went into effect expanding police powers.

In Kingston and other towns and cities earlier, the authorities said they were having difficulty persuading residents in low-lying areas to leave their homes for shelter.

But in Montego Bay and other resort towns on the north coast, about 15,000 stranded tourists from the United States and other countries gladly agreed to move from waterfront hotels to heavily fortified concrete and steel resorts inland.

As the storm intensified, hotels around the country ordered guests from their rooms, many of them with floor to ceiling glass walls, and herded them into the safety of central ballrooms and dining areas.

"I think this is going to be a bad one," said Butch Stewart, chairman of Sandals Resorts, the largest hotel group in Jamaica, and chairman of Air Jamaica, the national flag airline.

Mr. Stewart, reached by telephone in Miami, had gone there after starting repairs to his hotels in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas that were damaged by Hurricane Charley last week. While Jamaica and Florida braced for Hurricane Ivan, rescue workers continued to try to get into Grenada, the tiny island in the southern Caribbean where more than 20 people died earlier this week as the stormed wrecked hundreds of homes and businesses.

A State Department official said Friday evening that by midmorning Saturday, planes would begin airlifting American citizens out of the devastated island to Port of Spain in Trinidad and Tobago. Roughly 1,500 Americans were on the island when Hurricane Ivan hit, the official said.

About one-third of those were medical students studying at the American medical college in Grenada, St. George's University School of Medicine, said Jerry Cammarata, a doctor at Coney Island Hospital who has been in touch with the students' families. In Florida, the highway out of the Keys was clogged with residents in cars and trucks heading north out of harm's way. In Miami and other cities, people were rushing around to grocery and hardware stores to restock on water, canned food and batteries for flashlights and portable radios. Long lines formed at gasoline stations as drivers topped off their tanks.

Ken Seiffer, 42, from Key West, was at a gas station in Marathon on Friday afternoon, waiting to get gas with his wife and two children. "We're leaving, heading up toward Orlando where we have family," he said. "We've boarded up and secured everything so now it's time to go ahead and evacuate."

Two of the three hospitals in the Keys were being evacuated, the Lower Keys Medical Center in Key West and the Fishermen's Hospital in Marathon. In Montego Bay, Horace Peterkin, manager of Sandals Montego Bay and a vice president of the Jamaica Hotel and Tourism Association, was getting the last of his guests out of his beachfront resort and keeping an eye on developments around the country.

He said he understood the government was preparing to forcibly evacuate some residents in dangerous areas. "A lot of people are still clinging to their houses and possessions," Mr. Peterkin said.

One reason people were unwilling to leave their homes, he said, was memories of looting during and after Hurricane Gilbert, the last powerful storm to hit Jamaica, 16 years ago.

The mood of Jamaica, he said, has shifted from widespread denial, based on 50 years of watching all but two big hurricanes skirt the island at what seemed to be the last minute, to very serious concern.

"Everybody is very, very nervous," Mr. Peterkin said. Early this afternoon, Tameka Cato, 17, was walking as fast as she could toward safety in her family's church, the nearby Kingdom Hall of Jehovahs Witness, with two younger brothers and her 7-year-old sister, Sangean, trying to keep up. Their parents planned to join them later.

Sangean in blue jeans and powder blue shirt was hefting a pink backpack stuffed with clothing and the others carried sacks of water and food along the deserted street. Nearly every business was shuttered in Kingston. But the tiny, gritty L & K Restaurant & Bar on Half Way Tree Road was open and so was Taylor's Funeral Home on East Street.

Elvis Gayle, one of the undertakers at the funeral home, said he had come in to help Ken Anderson, the caretaker, take down a sign that the wind might have blown away. They were determined to maintain the funeral home policy of being available to bereaved families 24 hours a day, every day, clear skies or not.

"Probably nobody is going to come out during the hurricane," Mr. Anderson said. "But we're staying open just in case."

Keith Sturridge, the burly owner of the bar, said he figured his business, with its concrete block structure and steel security bars on the windows, was a safer bet for riding out Hurricane Ivan than his 70-year-old home. He said he figured if he was going to be in the bar, he might as well be ready for business.

The counter stools and all the booths were empty in midafternoon as a light rain washed the front of the building. But Andre Jones, 30, a construction worker, and two other men were staying dry, just under the eaves of the bar's roof.

They laughed at the thought that like hundreds of thousands of evacuating Floridians, they might try to get out of the path of the storm. People could get away from the beaches in Jamaica to places like the restaurant , they said. But after that, there was no place to go on an island that was 150 miles long and 50 miles wide.

None of them had the money for a flight to Florida and the thought of that made them chuckle, too. "Florida is all mashed up and it's going to get hit again," Mr. Jones said. "What good is it going to do you to go there?"

Terry Aguayo contributed reporting from Miami for this article, and Perry Athanason from Marathon, Fla.

 
Hurricane Ivan Slams Into Jamaica, Looting Erupts
By Horace Helps
Sep 11, 12:28 AM (ET)
i
KINGSTON, Jamaica (Reuters) - Powerful Hurricane Ivan roared into Jamaica with huge waves, drenching rains and deadly winds on Friday and sporadic shooting erupted in the near-deserted streets of the capital as looters went on the prowl.

Large trees and poles crashed down in Kingston, some hitting houses. Ravines running through the city quickly overflowed and flooded streets.

Large waves pounded the coast around St. Thomas in the southeast of the island and a storm surge tore away at least two houses, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency said. Elsewhere, the surge washed away roads.

"It's extremely windy. The whole island is without electricity," said Joseph Robinson, 45, from the British Caribbean territory of Turks and Caicos, as he took shelter in the lobby of a Kingston hotel. "It's going beyond manageable."

Ivan, which has already killed 27 people as it rampaged across the Caribbean, strengthened when it reached Jamaica with winds of 155 mph, just short of qualifying as a rare, top-level Category 5 hurricane for the second time since it formed.

If it continues on its present path it could be the third big storm in a month to slam into Florida.

In the Cayman Islands, a British territory west of Jamaica, authorities told coastal dwellers to flee battering waves and an 8-foot storm surge.

In the Florida Keys, long lines of tourists and residents streamed out of the 100-mile island chain as Floridians, already bruised by Hurricanes Charley and Frances in the past four weeks, wearily prepared for a possible third strike in an unusually busy Atlantic storm season.

JAMAICANS BRACE FOR THE WORST

In the immediate path of Ivan, Jamaica's 2.7 million people braced for the worst.

"It is clear that the severity of this hurricane will have extremely serious effects, as predicted," said Jamaican Prime Minister P.J. Patterson as he declared a state of emergency.

Half a million Jamaicans, over one-sixth of the population were urged to evacuate low-lying areas as Ivan approached. But many held out, vowing to protect their homes from looters.

As fierce winds lashed Kingston, robbers held up emergency workers at gunpoint. A doctor was shot and taken to hospital.

By 11 p.m. EDT, Ivan's center was about 35 miles south of Kingston at latitude 17.5 north and longitude 76.9 west, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

It was moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Hurricane-force winds extended for 60 miles from the center.

Ivan has killed at least 27 people, most of them on the devastated spice island of Grenada, which officials said remained without power or water and under a dusk-to-dawn curfew after widespread looting.

Security forces from Grenada and other Caribbean countries secured buildings in the capital, St. George's, while residents on foot or in cars with smashed windshields searched for scarce water, food and gasoline.

Authorities said 90 percent of Grenada's homes were damaged when the hurricane hit on Tuesday and issued an urgent appeal for tents, tarpaulins, cots, blankets and building supplies to shelter 60,000 of the volcanic island's 90,000 people.

Tour groups joined forces to evacuate tourists to Barbados while the State Department in Washington said it would evacuate U.S. citizens Saturday.

In addition to 17 deaths in Grenada and one in Jamaica, four people died in Venezuela, four in the Dominican Republic and one in Tobago.

In the Cayman Islands, a major offshore financial center, most businesses, including banks and schools were closed. Some apartment complexes ordered residents to evacuate.

TIME TO PRAY

The hurricane center's long-range forecast, which has a large margin of error, put Ivan in Cuba by Sunday, and near Key West, Florida, on Monday afternoon.

The order for 80,000 residents to leave the Florida Keys was the third big evacuation in Florida in a month.

"This is really the time to prepare and not to panic," said Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. "It is also a time for people of faith to pray, for the souls we lost in these storms -- and there is a growing number of those -- for our state's recovery and for the strength to face what lies ahead."

Charley killed more than 20 people and caused insured damage of $7.4 billion after hitting southwest Florida on Aug 13. Frances, a less powerful but bigger storm, killed 19 people and caused damages of $2 billion to $4 billion.

More than 650,000 homes and businesses in Florida, or about 1.3 million people, remained without power on Friday. (Additional reporting by Daniel Aguilar in Kingston, Manuel Jimenez in Santo Domingo, Robert Edison Sandiford in Bridgetown, Barbados, Michael Peltier in Tallahassee, Florida, Linda Hutchinson-Jafar in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad, and Alan Markoff in George Town, Cayman Islands)

  http://news.myway.com/top/article/id/425758|top|09-11-2004::00:47|reuters.html
Deadly Hurricane Ivan pounds Jamaica, could strengthen 

MONTEGO BAY, Jamaica : Walls of waves crashed into seaside towns as deadly Hurricane Ivan lashed Jamaica with winds of 240 kilometers (150 miles) per hour and threatened to grow stronger, with millions more people in its projected path.

"Rainfall amounts of eight to 12 inches, possibly causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, can be expected along the path of Ivan," it noted.

Ivan was pointed next at Cuba and the Florida Keys, the southern string of causeway-linked islands where mandatory evacuation was ordered, affecting some 80,000 people.

"Storm surge flooding of five to eight feet (1.5 to 2.4 meters) above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, are occurring primarily along the south coast of Jamaica," the US center added.

Jamaican authorities pleaded for 500,000 people to leave coastal areas most at risk from the massive storm, which has already killed 17 in Grenada, five in Venezuela, four in the Dominican Republic and one in Tobago.

The tiny spice island of Grenada, population 100,000, suffered catastrophic damage in the storm, according to Prime Minister Keith Mitchell.

The storm, the worst to hit the region in decades, has already killed at least 27 people in Grenada, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and Tobago, and triggered panic buying and mass evacuations in parts of Cuba and Florida.

Seven-meter (23-foot) waves slammed the coastline of this mountainous, verdant Caribbean island nation of 2.7 million, where a state of emergency was declared at midday Friday.

Electricity was shut down across the island to protect the power grid, and rivers overflowed, sweeping away homes and flooding neighborhoods, with waist-high waters roiling with tree branches, boulders and debris. There were reports of scattered looting in Jamaica's crime-plagued capital, Kingston.

"There is widespread damage across Jamaica, roofs lifting everywhere and suburban residences around Kingston have been deeply affected, there is structural damage, ... power lines, live wires on the ground," O'Neil Hamilton, a Jamaican government spokesman in Washington, told AFP.

"Damage continues and it has been that way for the past 11 hours" and will continue given Ivan's slow forward motion, Hamilton said, noting there were no early reports of casualties.

He noted there were problems calling in to Jamaica, but "cell service is working still and land lines are working and people are calling out."

At 1200 GMT, Ivan's eye was located near just south of the western tip of Jamaica, or about 60 miles (95 kilometers) south of Montego Bay, hub of the island's critical tourist industry, the US National Hurricane Center reported.

The storm was churning west-northwest at about eight miles (13 kilometers) per hour, with 150-mile-per-hour (240-kilometer-per-hour) winds, and should move near the Cayman Islands in about 24 hours, the US center said.

Already a strong Category Four system out of a maximum of five, "some fluctuations in strength are expected but Ivan could become stronger during the next 24 hours," the center warned.

Up to 90 percent of buildings on the island were damaged, crops were destroyed and tourist resorts were in ruins. Looting and sporadic violence followed in the wake of the storm, prompting the United States to organize an evacuation of some 1,500 of its citizens living there.

About 60,000 people are believed to be homeless, with 5,000 to 8,000 people staying in 47 emergency shelters, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Relief Agency (CDERA) reported in Barbados.

"The Caribbean Disaster Relief Unit is now operational at both the air and sea ports and responsible for managing all incoming relief supplies" for Grenada, CDERA said.

In Cuba, where Ivan was due to hit Sunday, more than 40,000 of the island's 11 million people had been evacuated. The armed forces were ordered to prepare air raid shelters to operate as hurricane shelters.

Cuba's preparations come nearly one month after Hurricane Charley left five people dead there and an estimated one billion dollars in damage.

Forecasts showed the powerful hurricane could slam into Key West, Florida, the westernmost tip of the US archipelago, on Monday.

Thousands of cars, many towing boats, clogged the only road from the keys to the mainland late Friday.

"You can't take a chance," said Fernando Reyes, 37, as he finished packing his car in Key Largo for the trip north. "This one looks like it's going to hit and hit bad."

- AFP

Ivan rips through Cayman Islands

Category 4 storm predicted to hit western Cuba on Monday

Sunday, September 12, 2004 Posted: 4:21 PM EDT

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Ivan, blamed for at least 41 deaths in the Caribbean, pounded the Cayman Islands on Sunday, following a track toward the western tip of Cuba.

Communications with Grand Cayman were hampered by widespread power outages, but officials reported horizontal rain and major flooding over the island.

"Reports from ham radio operators and the Cayman Meteorological Service indicate that power is out throughout the island," said the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"Numerous buildings have lost their roofs. Water up to two feet deep covers the airport runway, and water as high as five feet is flowing through many homes."

With low-lying areas evacuated, many of the Cayman Islands' 45,000 residents hunkered down in shelters built to withstand strong hurricanes.

All but a few tourists left the island ahead of the storm, government spokeswoman Patricia Ebanks said.

All 100 residents of the smallest of the Caymans -- Little Cayman -- flew to Grand Cayman, 90 miles away.

Many of the 2,000 residents of Cayman Brac -- the second-smallest island -- were also in shelters on Grand Cayman, Ebanks said. Yet after the evacuations, the storm's path shifted westward, veering away from the smaller islands and more directly toward Grand Cayman.

Ivan strengthened to a Category 5 storm late Saturday, with winds topping 165 mph (264 kph) but weakened overnight to Category 4, with maximum sustained winds near 150 mph (240 kph).

Forecasters said it could regain Category 5 strength Sunday on its approach to Cuba.

At 2 p.m. ET, Ivan was moving west-northwest near 10 mph (17 kph), according to the center. Its eye was about 60 miles (95 kilometers) west of Grand Cayman.

Forecasters modified Ivan's predicted path again Sunday morning, saying it has not made as much of a northwesterly turn as expected.

The updated forecast put the storm farther west of Havana, Cuba, and well clear of south Florida and the Keys.

A chart of the storm's most likely path showed it passing over the western end of Cuba on Monday, heading into the Gulf of Mexico and hitting the northwest Florida Panhandle midday Wednesday, the hurricane center said.

Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ordered the Florida Keys evacuated days ago, when forecasters were predicting the storm was headed in that direction.

Many of the people who live in the Keys have left, driving on U.S. 1 -- the only highway leading out of the island chain, Bush said.

A tropical storm watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from the Seven-Mile Bridge westward to the Dry Tortugas, the center said.

Ivan has been blamed for at least 41 deaths as it passed east to west through the Caribbean during the past week: 16 in Jamaica, 17 in Grenada, four in Venezuela and four in the Dominican Republic, according to officials from those countries.

Eight people drowned in the southern Jamaica town of Portland Cottage when a tidal surge pushed a wall of water into their coastal neighborhood, according to Jamaica's Office of Disaster Preparedness. Another eight people died in other areas on the southern side of the island, disaster officials said.

Cubans expressed anxiety about the potential destruction predicted to hit their island Monday afternoon or evening.

A hurricane warning was in effect for Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Ciego de Avila, including the Isle of Youth. A hurricane watch remained in effect for the rest of Cuba.

Cuban President Fidel Castro went on television Saturday to warn residents to stock up on supplies and board up their homes.

"Whatever the hurricane does, we will all work together," he said.

Castro was quick to turn down any offer of relief that might come from the United States.

"From beforehand, I am saying we will not accept any help from those who have applied economic measures against our country," he said. "Save the hypocrisy of offering aid to Cuba."

Even with storm's center predicted to pass west of Havana, the Cuban capital was still in danger's way.

Many of Havana's 2.5 million residents live in dilapidated housing that has been poorly maintained for the past 45 years.

The government ordered everyone living above the fourth floor of any building to move to a lower level. Old and fragile buildings in Cuba have collapsed during thunderstorms.

Cubans usually take warnings to seek safer shelter seriously.

Without hardware stores in each community, Cubans are unable to board up their windows with plywood. Even tape is hard to find.

CNN's Karl Penhaul in Kingston and Lucia Newman in Havana contributed to this report.

Hurricane Ivan Devastates Caymans With 20-Foot Surge (Update1)

Sept. 13, 2004  (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ivan, responsible for at least 60 deaths across the Caribbean, devastated the Caymans, tearing off roofs and washing away parts of houses and apartment buildings on the tiny islands known for international banking.

Grand Cayman was submerged in a 15- to 20-foot (4.6- to 6-meter) tidal surge as the storm passed yesterday. The island was split into two for a time, as the ocean swept across the west coast at Seven Mile Beach, said Gray Smith, a partner in Maples & Calder, the largest law firm on the island. Smith spoke by telephone from the firm's London office.

``We were out of contact entirely for more than 24 hours,'' he said, before reaching some of the firm's 200 Cayman-based employees by cell phone today.

Smith said power and telephone service remains out, and more than half the island's buildings lost their roofs as the hurricane swept through.

The firm's Ugland House headquarters in George Town was damaged when the roof of Queensgate House next door flew off, he said. Maples has offices in both buildings.

The winds of the Category 5 hurricane ripped homes apart like ``matchsticks,'' reporter Paulette Connolly said in a Citadel Radio interview monitored by Cayman Net News. Cars and trucks floated away like toys during the storm surge, she said.

``It is unimaginable. We are devastated. The sea went through apartments,'' Connolly said, Cayman Net News reported.

There are reports of deaths on the island. While some Cable & Wireless cellular phones are working sporadically, other services are out, the news agency said.

Financial Secrecy

The Caymans, renowned as a tax haven, provide near-total financial secrecy for companies, banks and accounts. There are more than 500 banks and trust companies with deposits of more than $1 trillion in the Cayman Islands, according to the Cayman Monetary Authority.

That's more deposits than there are in New York City. The Cayman Islands are about one-third the size of New York City.

All electric power to the island remains out, according to H. Stanley Marshall, a director of Caribbean Utilties Co. Ltd. which provides electricity to 21,000 customers on the island. Marshall is chief executive of Fortis Inc., an electric utility owner in St. John's Newfoundland, Canada.

``We have lots of power lines down,'' said Marshall, who spoke to company executives on the island earlier today. He said the company's generating station, which is covered by insurance, is in relatively good shape.

The company's transmission distribution system, including power lines and poles, isn't insured, he said. The company has a $4 million hurricane damage reserve.

``The reality is that until we get out and survey, nobody really knows. Roads are blocked and flooded.''


To contact the reporters on this story:
Timothy W. Doyle in Washington at  tdoyle8@bloomberg.net;
David Evans in Los Angeles at    davidevans@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible this story:
Glenn Holdcraft at  gholdcraft@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 13, 2004 15:15 EDT

Hurricane Ivan Rolls Towards Cuba
Hurricane Ivan Heads to Cuba As Dangerous Category 5 Storm After Slamming Grand Cayman; Death Toll Rises to 68

The Associated Press
Posted on Tue, Sep. 14, 2004


Western Cuba endures Ivan's fury




mmerzer@herald.com

Hurricane Ivan bombarded western Cuba with the full fury of a Category 5 killer storm Monday night, damaging hundreds of homes with crushing winds, crashing 15-foot waves into the Isle of Youth and swamping at least two towns.

''The situation is bad, very, very, bad,'' a woman huddled in her home in Pinar del Río province told The Herald by telephone Monday night. Wind howled in the background. ``We've been told it's going to get a lot worse. We are in a difficult situation.''

The hurricane seemed to mushroom in size Monday night even as it maintained its deadly power. It was so vast that its clouds simultaneously covered Cuba, the Florida Keys, the entire Florida peninsula and portions of the Bahamas, Mexico, Belize and Honduras.

And it was heading toward Florida. Forecasters posted a hurricane watch Monday night on the entire Florida Panhandle and as far west as Morgan City, La., including New Orleans.

Ivan has killed at least 68 people during its slow trek through the Caribbean, and it is the second hurricane in about a month to hit Cuba. Hurricane Charley left five dead in Cuba and $1 billion in damage.

On Monday, the weather station in Sandino, a town in Pinar del Río, reported 125-mph sustained winds and 160-mph gusts from Ivan. That station and others soon ''lost all communications with the external world,'' according to an amateur radio operator in Pinar del Río city.

After arousing hope that its fierce inner core would bypass Cuba, Ivan veered closer, striking the island's western tip with the eastern edge of the catastrophic eye wall, rocking it with wind and rain.

Still, it appeared that the nation at large was granted a reprieve and would not be savaged. Westernmost Cuba is sparsely populated, and Havana and areas east of it were not expected to experience hurricane-force winds.

STORM `COURTEOUS'

Cuban President Fidel Castro, who traveled Monday to Pinar del Río, praised Ivan's ''courteous attitude.'' He said Cuba would ''avoid damage and expenses that otherwise would have been incurred'' if the core had bisected the main island.

At the same time, though, a wide region between Havana and the western tip of Cuba remained in danger early today. Ivan was a huge storm and its effects were sprawling and perilous.

''We're worried and frightened,'' one resident of the Isle of Youth told The Herald by telephone.

No new casualty reports were immediately available Monday.

Ivan's storm surge, a wall of water that precedes the eye wall, reportedly covered the fishing towns of La Coloma and Cortes in the province of Pinar del Río. The populations of both towns had been evacuated and much of the province was flooded.

''They're reporting a lot of water,'' said Osvaldo Pla, an amateur radio operator for Brothers to the Rescue in Miami, who monitored ham radio transmissions from Cuba.

An amateur radio operator in Cuba reported that phone and power lines were down in Pinar del Río province and that the storm surge invaded three city blocks along the southern coast.

A ham radio report from Isabel Rubio, a small town in westernmost Pinar del Río, reported some structural damage to buildings in nearby Sandino.

Other amateur radio reported ''hundreds of trees'' down throughout much of western Pinar del Río.

Authorities said 130,000 of the province's 1.3 million people had been relocated from their homes to schools, government buildings, hotels and neighbors' houses.

A woman who was riding out the storm with her 2-year-old daughter and two aunts told The Herald in a telephone interview she had boarded up her windows with plywood handed out by the government.

Rain had not stopped since early Monday morning, intensifying as the day wore on, she said.

''We're a little bored, but that is not important,'' she said. ``We've seen what's happened [elsewhere] and we're intent on saving lives at all costs.''

ON ISLE OF YOUTH

Earlier in the day, powerful winds and heavy rainfall knocked out electricity in some parts of the Isle of Youth, flooded streets in many areas, and washed out part of a highway on the eastern edge of the island.

Havana reported heavy rain and moderate wind, and Cuban provinces to the east barely felt the storm.

''It's not coming here,'' said one confident man sitting with his family in their apartment doorway in central Havana. ``We got lucky.''

In Havana and Matanzas, where people had been expecting the worst for days, a cautious sense of relief prevailed Monday night.

''Imagine how relieved we feel,'' a Matanzas woman told The Herald by telephone. ``Our lives are unlucky enough. We were expecting the worst since the beginning, and I have been glued to the radio, listening to all the bulletins.''

There was one remaining fear: more blackouts than usual.

''We have to take advantage of the daylight hours,'' said another Matanzas woman, cooking a dinner of eggs and rice earlier than usual, just in case. ``It's usually pretty bad anyway, but today we expected it to be worse.''

While Castro seemed pleased with Ivan's path, other officials took to the airwaves to remind residents of the storm's dangers.

''Don't take any unnecessary risks,'' civil defense Lt. Col. Domingo Carretero said on state television. ``Don't go outside. Don't go on your balconies. Don't cross rivers that are swelling. Don't touch severed electricity cables.''

Jose Rubiera, Cuba's chief meteorologist, said Ivan wasn't through with Cuba. Western provinces, plus other areas, still faced great danger, he said.

''No one should think that it is gone, that we are safe -- that is not true,'' Rubiera said in a broadcast.

Herald staff writers Alfonso Chardy, Angel L. Doval, Renato Perez, Fabiola Santiago and Ana Veciana-Suarez contributed to this report.

 


Ivan could sink New Orleans
From Doug Simpson in New Orleans
September 14, 2004

MORE than 1.2 million people in metropolitan New Orleans have been warned to get out amid threats Hurricane Ivan could submerge the Big Easy.

The 225km/h tempest continues to churn towards the Gulf Coast of the US, with weather watchers fearing it could be the most disastrous storm to hit the nation in nearly 40 years.

Residents streamed inland in bumper-to-bumper traffic in an agonisingly slow exodus amid dire warnings that Ivan could overwhelm New Orleans with up to six metres of filthy, polluted water.

About three-quarters of a million more people along the coast in Florida, Mississippi and Alabama also were told to evacuate.

Forecasters said Ivan, blamed for at least 68 deaths in the Caribbean, could reach 257km/h and strengthen to category 5, the highest level, by the time it blows ashore. That could be as early as tomorrow.

"Hopefully the house will still be here when we get back," said Tara Chandra, a doctor at Tulane University in New Orleans who packed his car up with possession, moved plants indoors and tried to book a Houston hotel room.