^{(I had the dream first and then dreamed it again to explain it)}

^{I was in New York City on Wall Street.}

^{Outside a large building, there was a young boy with a chimpanzee and they were entertaining the people and making them laugh. The crowds were gathering because the happiness ofo the few drew in more people who wanted to be happy.} 

^{Right next to the boy with the chimpanzee was a big old elephant in an enclosure with a pool of water. Nobody paid any attention to the elephant so it dove into the pool screaming. Nobody cared.  Nobody wanted to hear the elephant scream. So the elephant was alone in its enclosure. The people abandoned it.} 

^{NOTE: I think this is about the coming election - Democrats vs Republicans.}  

U.S. Senate Races

Retiring

Maryland (Sarbanes-D) - Sen. Paul Sarbanes, 72, will end his 30-year career in the Senate. Candidates to replace him are Rep. Ben Cardin (D), former NAACP president and former Rep. Kweisi Mfume (D), whose image was tarnished somewhat after he admitted to having an affair with an underling while at the NAACP. Forensic psychiatrist Lise Van Susteren, college history professor/voting rights activist Allan Lichtman and business executive, former state Senator and former Baltimore County Executive Dennis Rassmussen are also running for the Democrats. For the Republicans, possible candidates include Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, Tom Hampton and—don't think he wouldn't—Alan Keyes, among others. Anti-war independent Kevin Zeese, who is seeking the nomination from the state's Libertarian, Populist and Green Parties, is also running. March 3

Minnesota (Dayton-D) - Sen. Dayton announced that he will retire at the end of his current term. Rep. Mark Kennedy is the likely nominee for the Republicans. Hennepin County attorney Amy Klobuchar is the leading Democratic candidate; veterinarian Ford Bell is also running. Nurse Michael Cavlan is running for the Greens. Public Access TV director Robert Fitzgerald is running as an independent. Klobuchar (42%) and Bell (45%) both narrowly lead Kennedy (40%/42%) in a recent head-to-head poll conducted by Rassmussen. March 3

Tennessee (Frist-R) - With Sen. Majority Leader Bill Frist retiring in 2006 to possibly run for president, the Tennessee senate race is shaping up to be one of the hottest of 2006. Rep. Ed Bryant is the leading Republican contender; former Rep. Van Hilleary, Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker and hospital communications director Jeff Moder. For the Democrats, Rep. Harold Ford and state Sen. Rosiland Kurita are running. Conservative Emory "Bo" Heyward is running as an independent. March 3

Vermont (Jeffords-I) - Jim Jeffords, 70, announced last year that he won't seek re-election. Independent Rep. Bernie Sanders is the top candidate to replace him, receiving the support of state Democrats and Vermont's Progressive Party. For the Republicans, Marine veteran Greg Parke, businessman Richard Tarrant are running. Conspiracy theorist Craig Hill (G) is also running. Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) entered the race, but later dropped his bid. Sanders looks to be a safe bet at this point. A Research 2000 poll from early November showed Sanders (64%) with a hefty lead over Tarrant (16%). March 3

In trouble???

Florida (Bill Nelson-D) - Former astronaut Bill Nelson (D) will most likely face Rep. Katherine Harris (R), who won national notoriety presiding over the 2000 Florida recount. Republician leaders, embarrassed by Harris, have tried to recruit a number of high-profile challengers for the GOP primary, but having exhausted their search, are now supporting Harris. Attorney and professor Belinda Noah (R) and Del Adolph are also running. The primary will be held Sept. 5.March 3

Montana (Burns-R) - Burns has begun raising $8 to $10 million for his re-election in 2006. Running for the Democrats are state Senate President John Tester, state Auditor John Morrison, former state Rep. Paul Richards and businessman Clint Wilkes. Burns, who will be almost 72 on election day, is coming under the scrutiny of the Justice Department in the bribery and corruption probe of Indian casino lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and Burns approval rating is among the lowest in the country. In 2000, Burns won a tight race (51% to 47%) over Brian Schweitzer (D), who was elected governor in 2004. Aside from taking the governor's race in 2004, Montana Democrats took control of the state senate and state house and now hold most statewide offices. Dems will try to capitalize on this momentum in 2006 by making a serious challenge against Burns. The primary will be held June 6. March 3

New Jersey (Menendez-D) - Sen. Jon Corzine won the race for governor of New Jersey in 2005 and appointed Rep. Robert Menendez (D) to fill out his term in the senate. Menendez will run for the seat in 2006 and has $4.1 million campaign war chest. Republican state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. is his likely opponent. The New Jersey primary will be held June 7. March 3

Ohio (DeWine-R) - DeWine cheesed off conservatives by joining the so-called Gang of 14 — a group of moderate Republicans and Democrats who made a pact to avoid a major showdown on President Bush's judicial nominees. Suddenly, DeWine may be in trouble in a state dominated by conservatives. Futhermore, a coin investment scandal appears to be hurting the GOP on a statewide basis — making a Democratic pickup in Ohio a distinct possibility. Rep. Sherrod Brown is the likely Democratic nominee after the party shamelessly squashed the ambitions of Iraq veteran and recent congressional nominee Paul Hackett. Military veteran John Mitchel (R) and engineer William Pierce (R) and financial analyst David Smith are challenging DeWine in the May 2 primary. March 3

Pennsylvania (Santorum-R) - Numerous polls show Sen. Rick Santorum (R) trailing his likely challenger, state Treasurer Bob Casey (D). College professor Chuck Pennacchio (D), attorney Alan Sandals (D), and pro-gun Teamster G. Edward Cook are also running. The primary is held on May 16.March 3

Rhode Island (Chafee-R) - Sen. Lincoln Chafee flirted with the idea of switching parties and is finding himself vulnerable to challengers from both sides. Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey (R) recently announced his primary challenge to Chafee. Secretary of State Matt Brown (D), former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse (D) and veteran and businessman Carl Sheeler have announced their candidacies. Because he's a moderate, Chafee is going to be tough to beat, although it is clear he will be attacked from all sides. The Rhode Island primary will be held Sept. 12. March 3

Safe seats (for now!)

Arizona (Kyl-R) - Jon Kyl, who will be 64 on election day, is considered pretty safe. Former state Democratic Party chair Jim Pederson (D) will self-finance his challenge to Kyl. The Arizona primary will be held Sept. 12. March 11

California (Feinstein-D) - Sen. Dianne Feinstein will be 73 in election year and is one of the most popular politicians in the state. She should have no trouble trouncing former state Sen. Dick Mountjoy (R). Todd Chretien, a writer and anti-war activist from Oakland, and Tian Harter are running for the Greens. Marsha Feinland is running for the Peace and Freedom Party. Founder of the Minuteman Project Jim Gilchrist, who was a recent congressional candidate for the ultraconservative American Independent Party, is no doubt weighing his political future. The California primary will be held on June 6. March 11

Connecticut (Lieberman-D) - Lieberman's closeness with President Bush and his ideology is unsettling to some Democrats. Telecommunications company founder Ned Lamont is challenging Lieberman in the Democratic primary. Peace activist Ralph Ferrucci is running for the Greens. The Connecticut Primary is slated for Aug. 8, 2006. March 11

Delaware (Carper-D) - Pilot and Marine veteran Mike Protack and Temple University law professor Jan Ting are running in the GOP primary. Regardless of the challenger, Carper is strongly favored to win in this Democratic state. March 11

Hawaii (Akaka-D) - Akaka is getting up there in age; he was born Sept. 11, 1924, and will be 82 on election day. Akaka has said he'll run again and is considered safe, though Rep. Ed Case (D) has made a surprising entry into the primary race, upsetting many of the state's top Dems. The Hawaii primary is to be held on Sept. 23, 2006. March 11

Maine (Snowe-R) - The moderate Snowe, who announced in December that she is going to seek re-election, although rumors are still floating that she may retire. Sate Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan, organic farmer Jean Hay Bright, corporate lawyer Eric Mehnert are running for the Democrats. Regardless her challenger on Election Day, the popular moderate Snowe will be tough to beat. Oct. 31

Massachusetts (Kennedy-D) - Sen. Ted Kennedy was born Feb. 22, 1932, and will be 74 on election day in 2006. Former Wakefield Selectman Kevin Scott is running for the GOP, although Kennedy is strongly favored to win.

Michigan (Stabenow-D) - The Republicans are making Sen. Debbie Stabenow a target in 2006. President Bush tried to recruit Rep. Candice Miller (R), who earned a record number of votes as a statewide candidate in 1998, to challenge Stabenow, but Miller in January 2005 said that she would not run. Former Detroit City Councilman Rev. Keith Butler, Rev. Jerry Zandstra of suburban Grand Rapids and Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, a moderate who was reportedly recruited by the national party to head off the more conservative Butler, are running for the Republicans. With a sorry-looking state party, the GOP has been unable to find a high-profile challenger to Stabenow. Oct. 31

Mississippi (Lott-R) - Lott announced in mid-January that he will indeed run again, ending much speculation. Lott has faced a few set-backs in recent years. In 2002, he was forced to step down from his Senate leadership role after making remarks that were interpreted by some as racist. Then in 2005, Lott lost about half of his net worth to Hurricane Katrina, including a house on the Gulf Coast. Despite his set backs, he's a safe bet against state Rep. Erik Fleming (D). Jan. 17

Missouri (Talent-R) - Freshman Sen. Jim Talent will likely run again and has a pretty good shot at winning. State Auditor Claire McCaskill (D) is set to challenge Talent with strong backing from the party. Columnist Bob Novak reports that McCaskill, the party's 2004 gubernatorial nominee, has been promised "lavish financing" from the DSCC. In a sad side note, McCaskill's former husband David Exposito, whom she divorced in 1995, was gunned down in the streets of Kansas City in mid-December. Dec. 14

Nebraska (Ben Nelson-D) - Several top tier candidates have passed on this race. For the GOP nomination, it will be the battle of the "formers": Former Attorney General and 2000 nominee Don Stenberg (R), former GOP chairman David Kramer and former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts. At this point, this seat looks somewhat safe for Nelson, although that could turn on a dime. Oct. 5

Nevada (Ensign-R) - Ensign and fellow Nevada Sen. Harry Reid (D) have a storied working relationship, and the two are said to have a pact not to campaign against one another. In spite of that, it appears that Jack Carter, son of President Jimmy Carter, may challenge Ensign. Without Reid's help, Carter would have an uphill battle, but he could make it interesting. Oct. 5

New Mexico (Bingaman-D) - Bingaman announced in mid-Feb. that he's going to seek a fifth term, putting an end to rumors that he may retire. Former state Sen. Tom Benavides, a former Democrat, announced he will challenge Bingaman as a Republican. In a previous election, he had tried to get on the ballot against Bingaman as a Reform Party candidate. Also running is David Pfeffer (R), a former Democrat who is a Santa Fe city council member. Unless a high-profile candidate like Rep. Heather Wilson (R) comes forward, Bingaman is pretty safe. Nov. 26

New York (Clinton-D) - Sen. Hillary Clinton is running for re-election, ahead of her expected presidential run in 2008. Her primary opponent will be Steven Greenfield, a 2002 Green Party candidate for Congress. Greenfield plans to run on an anti-war platform, challenging Clinton's hawkish stance on the war. GOP candidates include attorney Bill Brenner and former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer. Westchester County District Attorney Jeanine Pirro recently dropped her dismal bid for U.S. Senate, fueling speculation that President Nixon's son-in-law Ed Cox, who works as an attorney, may re-enter the race for the GOP nomination. Dec. 22

Texas (Hutchison-R) - Hutchison considered running for governor in 2006, but recently announced that she'll seek re-election. Barbara Ann Radnofsky, a Houston attorney, is running for the Democrats. Scott Jameson and Timothy Wade are running for the Libertarians. Small town city council member and pet owner Arthur W. Loux is running as an independent. Given that Hutchison is one of the most popular politicians in the state, she's going to be very, very tough to beat in 2006. The Texas Primary kicks off the mid-term election cycle on Tuesday, March 7, 2006.March 6

Utah (Hatch-R) - Born March 22, 1934, Sen. Orrin Hatch will be 72 years old election year, but it looks like he is going to go for another term. Web "guru" Pete Ashdown is running for the Democrats. Also running is disabled veteran, peace activist and distant relative of Orrin Hatch Julian Hatch (G). Nov. 27

Virginia (Allen-R) - Allen got a major break when Mark Warner decided against running for this seat, possibly to run for president in 2008. Instead, Allen will likely face IT industry association president Harris Miller (D). Jan. 29

Washington (Cantwell-D) - Because of the state's close governor and presidential races in 2004, Sen. Maria Cantwell was to be a top GOP target in 2006. However, the GOP has had a very tough time recruiting a top-tier candidate. Former insurance executive Mike McGavick (R) is taking the plunge. Businessman and veteran Mark Wilson (D) has announced a primary challenge to Cantwell. Oct. 5

West Virginia (Byrd-D) - Born Nov. 20, 1917, Byrd will be almost 89 years old on election day in 2006, but he has announced his campaign for re-election. National Republicans tried to recruit Rep. Shelley Moore Capito to run against him, but she announced in early October 2005 that she won't run. Other challengers include 34-year-old Hiram Lewis (R), a veteran who served in Kuwait and Iraq, and optometrist Zane Lawhorn (R). Dec. 5

Wisconsin (Kohl-D) - Kohl, who will be 71 years old on election day in 2006, appears to be running for re-election. Attorney Robert Gerald Lorge (R) and peace activist Rae Vogeler (G) are running against him. This one is safe for Kohl unless a big name, like former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson jumps in, although it looks like Thompson is exploring a presidential run.Nov. 26

Forget it's even happening

Indiana (Lugar-R) - Lugar, who was born April 4, 1932, and will be 74 in election year, appears to be running again. Lugar is well respected and is, indeed, a great asset to our country, given his work with the Russians to disarm nuclear weapons. He will probably not see a serious challenger. The Indiana primary is to be held May 2. March 11

North Dakota (Conrad-D) - The White House aggressively tried to recruit popular Gov. John Hoeven (R), although Hoeven didn't take this bait. Conrad looks pretty safe. Oct. 1

Wyoming (Thomas-R) - Thomas was born Feb. 17, 1933, and will be 73 on election day in 2006. He has said that he intends to seek a third term. Navy scientist Dale Groutage is running for the Democrats. March 3

Not up for re-election, but may retire

Alaska (Stevens-R) - Senator Ted Stevens is old, my friend. Born Nov. 18, 1923, Stevens will be nearly 83 years old on election day in 2006. Stevens, a 37-year veteran of the chamber, regularly threatens to resign if he doesn't get his way. Recently, he was dealt a major setback when Senate voted to sustain a filibuster that blocks Stevens' plan to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Newpaper reports described Stevens as "angry," "furious" and even "sad" following the vote, but Stevens laters said that he would not resign, possibly because the Senate needs a pouter. He is up for re-election in 2008.

Hawaii (Inouye-D) - Inouye recently coasted to re-election. Born Sept. 7, 1924, he'll be 82 years old on election day in 2006. He's up for re-election in 2010.

Iowa (Grassley-R) - Born Sept. 17, 1933, Grassley will be 73 on election day in 2006. Grassley is up for re-election in 2010.

Kansas (Roberts-R) - Born April 20, 1936, Roberts will be 70 on election day in 2006. He is up for re-election in 2008.

Kentucky (Bunning-R) - Born Oct. 23, 1931, Bunning will be 75 on election day in 2006.

Maryland (Mikulski-D) - Born July 20, 1936, Mikulski will be 70 on election day in 2006. She is up for re-election in 2010.

Michigan (Levin-D) - Born June 28, 1934, Levin will be 74 on election day in 2006. Levin is up for re-election in 2008; rumor has it he won't be running for re-election, however.

New Jersey (Lautenberg-D) - Born Jan. 23, 1924, Lautenberg will be 82 on election day in 2006. Lautenberg is up for re-election in 2008, but don't bet on him running again. He had reluctantly come out of retirement in 2002 as a replacement candidate for the Democrats, and few expected him to last this long. However, with Gov. McGreevey's early retirement, and Sen. Corzine's expected bid for governor in 2005 and re-election in 2006, the New Jersey political scene is already quite complicated, and he may wait until after the election in '06 to step down.

New Mexico (Domenici-R) - Born May 7, 1932, Domenici will be 74 on election day in 2006. He's up for re-election in 2008.

Oklahoma (Inhofe-R) - Born Nov. 17, 1934, Inhofe will be almost 72 on election day in 2006. He's up for re-election in 2008.

Pennsylvania (Specter-R) - Born Feb. 12, 1930, Specter will be 76 in 2006. He's up for re-election in 2010. In mid-Feb., Specter announced that he had Hodgkin's lympoma and had to undergo of chemotherapy. Specter's doctor expects him to make a full recovery, and he has continued to serve in the Senate during his treatment.

Utah (Bennett-R) - Born Sept. 18, 1933, Bennett will be 73 on election day in 2006. He is up for re-election in 2010.

A Year Out from 2006 Vote, ABC News/Washington Post Issues Poll Suggests Opening for Change

Analysis by GARY LANGER

Nov. 6, 2005 — A year out from the 2006 midterm elections, the Democrats hold an extraordinary lead in voter preferences — but far less of an advantage in the practical elements it can take to turn an out-party's hopes into votes: leadership, anti-incumbency and a unified theme.

Opportunity is there for the Democrats: Capitalizing on George W. Bush's troubles, the party has a 12-point advantage over the Republicans in trust to handle the nation's main problems, and it leads in nine of 10 individual issues, with some huge gains from three years ago. In the 10th — Bush's trademark, handling terrorism — the Democrats run even.

Indeed, 55 percent of Americans in this ABC News/Washington Post poll say they'd like to see the Democrats take control of Congress in 2006. And if the election were today, registered voters would favor the Democrat in their congressional district by 52 percent to 37 percent.

That 15-point margin is numerically the biggest for the Democrats since an ABC/Post poll in September 1984 (they ultimately lost 14 seats), although about the same as a 14-point Democratic lead in one poll in 1996 (when they gained nine).

The Democrats' advantage on issues extends to some surprising areas — Iraq and the economy, for example — and show striking gains from late 2002.

So does their edge in attributes: They hold a 10-point lead, 50 percent to 40 percent, as the party that "better represents your personal values."

But a year can be a millennium in political terms, and midterm elections are far more complicated than a single popularity contest. With incumbent re-election rates usually over 90 percent, it takes a nationalized congressional election — with a differentiated, unifying theme and anti-incumbent sentiment — to create real change. The template is the Republicans' realigning election of 1994, when they gained 52 House seats and the control they still enjoy today.

Those elements, thus far, are lacking for 2006. Sixty percent of Americans approve of the work their own representative is doing (compared with 49 percent in October 1994). Despite trailing virtually everywhere else, the Republicans hold a 16-point advantage, 51 percent to 35 percent, as the party that has stronger leaders. And Republicans are more unified behind their party's leadership than are Democrats behind theirs.

But perhaps the biggest challenge for the Democrats is differentiation: Even with their edge on issues, just 44 percent of Americans say the Democrats are offering the country a clear direction that's different from the Republicans. (And notably, just 38 percent of independents say so.) That suggests that the current state of play says more about Republican weaknesses than Democratic strengths.

Bush

While the Democrats struggle to find a compelling message, Republican candidates may seek distance from their president, complicating Bush's efforts to govern in the year ahead. By nearly a 2-1 margin, 34 percent to 18 percent, Americans say they're more likely to oppose than to support a candidate who's closely associated with Bush.

And independents — the key swing voters — say by a slightly wider margin, 37 percent to 12 percent, that they're more apt to oppose a candidate who's closely aligned with Bush.

That reflects Bush's current difficulties — a career-low 39 percent job approval rating and weakness across issues and personal attributes — brought on by difficulties in Iraq, the troubled Hurricane Katrina response, economic concerns and the ethics cloud over the White House.

Ethics, though, do not look like a Democratic advantage: Americans roughly divide on which party has a higher level of ethics and honesty — 16 percent say the Democrats, 12 percent say the Republicans — and the big majority, 71 percent, rate them the same.

There is also somewhat of a pox on both houses in public attitudes. Just 46 percent of Americans express confidence in the government's ability to get things done. Fifty-nine percent disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job, and 61 percent disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress specifically are performing. But the Democrats, while better-rated, hardly have bragging rights: Fifty-four percent see their performance negatively as well.

Change

That said, the change in preferences between the parties on issues since they were last asked in an ABC/Post poll in late 2002 is vast. Then, the two parties were rated about evenly in trust to handle the economy; now the Democrats lead by 22 points, 56 percent to 34 percent. On Iraq, the Republicans led by 26 points; now the Democrats lead by 11. On terrorism, the Republicans led by 36 points; now the parties are even.

As strong as they currently are on issues, the Democrats two biggest leads are on attributes: By 33 points, 56 percent to 33 percent, they're seen as the party "more concerned with the needs of people like you." And they hold a 36-point advantage, 60 percent to 24 percent, as the party that's "more open to the ideas of people who are political moderates." The challenge for the Democrats in the next year is to consolidate that image advantage into actual votes across congressional districts.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2005, among a random national sample of 1,202 adults. The results have a three-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS Intersearch of Horsham, Pa.

FROM: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/PollVault/story?id=1283170

Public Opinion Watch: 2006 Election Outlook

Commentary: What are the indicators that will help us predict the outcome of the upcoming midterms?

By Ruy Teixeira

March 31, 2006

More On Public Opinion Public Opinion Watch: The President's Sinking Polls Views of Bush and the Iraq war are hitting new lows. P L U S : Public Opinion Watch: More Values than Voters

Justice DeLayed From the Archives In this November 2004 article, Lou Dubose detailed how Tom DeLay spun one of Washington's most powerful fundraising networks.

"E-Waste" Polluting Poor Communities How to Pay Your CEO Tolerance Policies and... Intolerance Gonzales Stonewalls on Eavesdropping Divesting from Sudan Global Warming Debate Suppressed Banning Junk Food from Schools Pushing Prescriptions Massachusetts Gets Universal Health Coverage

Article created by The Century Foundation.

Broadly speaking, there are two approaches to looking at the outlook for this year’s Congressional elections. One is the “macro” approach, where one looks at a variety of national indicators to gauge the mood of the electorate and how that’s likely to affect the incumbent and challenging parties. The other approach is the “micro” approach, which assesses how each individual House and Senate race is likely to turn out, and aggregates up from that level to assess the likely gains and losses of the two parties.

The two methods tend to tell different stories and that is particularly true this year. First, let’s look at the macro story. According to these indicators, the GOP is in terrible shape and likely to get swamped by the Democrats in the election. Indeed, by these indicators, as Charlie Cook recently pointed out, the GOP is at least as bad off as the Democrats were at this point in the 1994 election cycle.

Right Direction/Wrong Track

In spring of 1994, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal (NBC/WSJ) poll has this critical indicator of the public mood at 47 percent wrong track/33 percent right direction. Today, the same poll has this indicator at 62 percent wrong track/26 percent right direction.

Generic Congressional Contest

In the most recent Gallup poll, the Democrats had a sixteen point lead among registered voters (55 percent to 39 percent) in the generic congressional contest, their largest lead on this question since 1982. The Democrats’ average lead in all public polls since the beginning of March is 13 points. Even assuming the generic question overestimates Democratic support by 5 points (the average difference between Gallup’s final poll among registered voters and the actual election result), that still gives the Democrats an average lead of 8 points.

The Democrats are also running large leads among independents in the generic Congressional ballot—generally in the 14–22 point range. As far back as I can get data (1982), the Democrats have never had a lead among independents larger than 4 points in an actual election, a level they managed to achieve in both 1986 and 1990. Indeed, since 1990, they’ve lost independents in every congressional election: by 14 points in 1994; by 4 points in 1998; and by 2 points in 2002. So, even leaving questions of relative partisan turnout aside (and I suspect the Democrats will do better, not worse, in this respect in 2006), the implications of a strong Democratic lead among independents in this year’s election, if it holds, are huge.

Generic congressional data also tend to show substantial shifts away from the GOP among base Republican and swing voters. As recently summarized by Democracy Corps:

The most important shifts are taking place among the world of Republican loyalists, which will have big strategic consequences. It is reflected in the most recent Democracy Corps poll where defection of 2004 Bush voters to the Democrats is twice the level of defection of Kerry voters to the Republicans. Only 31 percent of voters in blue counties (those carried by Kerry) are voting Republican for Congress, but 41 percent of red county voters are supporting the Democratic candidate. The combined data set shows major shifts in the Deep South and rural areas (even before the most recent controversies), blue-collar white men, and the best educated married men with high incomes. . . .

The other big shifts are taking place across the contested groups that form the swing blocs in the electorate. That is bringing big Democratic gains among older (over 50) non-college voters, the vulnerable women, practicing Catholics and the best-educated men. It is as if the entire center of the electorate shifted. . . .

The Democracy Corps quote mentioned the South. Yes, the South. Consider these data from a poll of 4,000 voters in AL, FL, LA, GA, MS, NC, SC, TN and VA, conducted by Insider Advantage for Hasting Wyman’s Southern Political Report. In this poll, Bush has a net negative approval rating in these states (45 percent approval/50 percent disapproval) and Democrats are preferred over the GOP to control Congress by 44 percent to 43 percent.

According to Insider Advantage CEO Matt Towery:

This is disastrous for the Republican Party. Even with legislative and congressional districts in most Southern states being drawn favorably for the GOP, there is a potential for a Republican meltdown at the polls in the mid-term elections this November. . . . When we broke the numbers down, we found the general trend that the larger of the state we surveyed, the more support for a Democratic Congress there was.

Most remarkably, FL’s preference for a Dem-controlled Congress was almost ten points. Wow.

Presidential Job Approval

Again, comparing NBC/Wall Street Journal data, Clinton’s approval rating at this time in 1994 was 55 percent approval/36 percent disapproval. Even at the time of the election, it was still 46 percent/46 percent. Bush’s current rating in the same poll is 37 percent approval/58 percent disapproval—net negative by 21 points.

Congressional Job Approval

The most recent Gallup poll has Congress’ job approval at just 27 percent, the worst Gallup has measured in more than a decade. Right before the 1994 election, Congress’ job approval stood at 23 percent. This indicator is not just bad for the incumbent GOP in general, but there are reasons to believe this is a key indicator of potentially large seat swings. As the Gallup report on these data notes:

During recent midterm election years, low congressional approval ratings have been associated with greater shifts in the partisan composition of the U.S. House of Representatives. In the five elections since 1974 in which Congress’ approval rating was below 40%, the average net change in U.S. House seats from one party to the other was 29. In the three midterm elections in which congressional approval ratings were above 40%, the average change was five seats. . . .

The fact that both congressional and presidential approval ratings are low does not bode well for the Republican Party. The current situation is similar to the political environment in 1978 and 1994, when Democrats controlled both the legislative and executive branches— which were both unpopular. Those elections resulted in net losses for the Democratic Party