THE KOREAN LEADER - ATTACK ON AMERICA?

A good friend called me first thing this morning to tell me she had sent me a terrifying dream in an e-mail. It follows:

Stan, the kids and I were living some place warm in a big condo complex... It was early morning and the sun was just coming up. I was lying in bed, with my eyes closed, just dozing, when I heard a loud roar that seemed to be kind of far away. I thought to myself that it was low flying fighter jets flying side by side. Oddly enough, it made me feel safe because it was like our area was being guarded. So I didn't even bother to open my eyes.

Next, there was silence for a short while ... just a few moments or maybe even not more than 10 seconds in the dream. Then was a sharp bang sound followed by a long long rumbling roar. It really didn't sound right, but in the dream state I was in inside the dream, I thought it must be a really big plane flying over head the broke the sound barrier (the bang) and was kicking back it's engines to slow down (the long roar). After that long roar stopped, everything went silent again and I started to go back to sleep in the dream.

THEN ... there was a bang at the door. Stan got up to get it. I got up too. Stan went to the door and it was our neighbor (not in real life, just in the dream). Stan and I knew him and his wife well. They were a older couple. I knew his name in the dream, but can't recall it now. He said to Stan he was sorry to wake him up, but he needed some help. He was on his way to work and suddenly his car went dead on the road and wanted to know if Stan could go out and have a look at it.

Stan remarked that it was odd because it was a new car. The guy then said he was very upset because it was a new car.. then he remarked something about it being the day for dead cars because he has seen several other cars on the road all lost power at the same time. It was really strange.

Stan didn't seem to catch what he said, cause he was getting dressed and putting his shoes on. But I did.

I remembered the sounds and thought about a bunch of cars losing their power at the same time and realized that something was terribly wrong. I quickly put on the TV.

Some of the channels were off all together and they were just static. The ones that were working were showing a picture of a long , thin room that had a big L shaped table in it ... the L was rounded so it looked almost like a ? but not as curvy ... It was going up the left side of the room and turning across to the right in the far end of the room. (as you are looking at it) The table was bare, and white and looked like it was plastic.

The room itself had very little room on either side of the table. Behind the far end of the table was a cove where there were some kitchen appliances like in a butlers pantry type of thing ... or maybe they were not kitchen appliances, but it was hard to see what they were for sure.

Sitting at the far end of the table was that Korean leader (Kim Jong Il ). He was sitting there, not moving and looking really emotionally empty ... with blank eyes and no expression on his face. He was dressed in khaki drab clothes. There was no sound at all ... like the audio of the channels were off. I thought that was weird ... I kept thinking it must be Saddam Hussein, but it wasn't.. it was hard for me to believe it was that Korean guy.

I changed channel after channel and that was on every channel that was on ... some channels were just static.

Eventually I found a channel that had sound. A woman's voice that sounded like it could have been Greta Van Susteren in tears was saying ... "This is clearly the most terrible, heinous thing to ever happen to the human race. The death toll is sure to be in the millions and millions. The devastation is unimaginable ... then the audio went out.

Then I picked up the phone to call people I knew to see if they were ok. When I did, rather than a dial tone, I got a tape recording on the phone that said:

............"The telephone system is under control of the emergency broadcast system. The California State Emergency Management Agency has issued the following warning to all residents. Stay inside your homes. Under no circumstances go onto Route 2. All roads must remain open for emergency vehicles only. Please turn your radio to (it gave a channel I can't recall) for further details" ........... Then it started over again.

ED NOTE: ( Route 2 is from: (a) The point where Santa Monica Boulevard crosses the city limits of the City of Santa Monica at Centinela Avenue to Route 101 in Los Angeles.)

I screamed "Oh My GOD!" and handed the phone to Stan who looked like he couldn't believe his ears.. he handed the phone to the guy who said "Holy Christ! I have to get home to the wife!" and he ran off.

Stan hung up the phone and I looked over to the children's bedrooms where they were still sound asleep.

The TV channel that was on was still showing that Korean leader, and the audio came back on and it was just this strange, kind of oriental flute music playing. The whole thing hit me and I became totally TERRIFIED!!!

I woke up at that moment I was in my own home in bed in the middle of the night, looking at the clock, I could still hear the flute music faintly playing in my head for a minute or two more.. .like the song had to end before the music stopped.

Then I turned on the TV just for a moment and realized that nothing had happened... so I shut it off... then did my best to go back to sleep.

The feeling was HORRIBLE ... and very real ... It took a long time to go back to sleep.

SEOUL, North Korea -- North Korea's leader is urging his people to hate America as they mark his birthday.

Kim Jong Il told the military to be on alert and implored North Koreans to "burn with hatred" against the United States.

The anti-U.S. message in a state-run newspaper appeared at the height of government-orchestrated celebrations for Kim's 61st birthday, which included festivals, speeches and calls for patriotism.

The North Korean report, monitored by a South Korean news agency, says the United States is pushing its nuclear dispute with the North "to the brink of war."

The Effects of a Nuclear Bomb Explosion on the Inhabitants of a City/PGS Briefing Paper

The detonation of a single nuclear bomb or "warhead" would cause a local disaster on a scale that few people in the world have seen and survived. However, it should not be confused with the effects of a nuclear war, in which many nuclear bombs would be exploded. That would cause the end of civilization in the countries concerned, and perhaps over the whole world, as well as radioactive contamination of whole continents, and terrible damage to the environment and ecology.

The effect of a single bomb would depend on its power, and where it exploded -- high in the air or at ground level -- and whether in a densely populated and built-up area like a city or in open country like an attack on a missile silo.

The nuclear bombs available to the great military powers of the world (China, France, Israel, Russia, United Kingdom, United States) range in power from several megatons down to a few kilotons (and some even smaller).

A "megaton" is the explosive power of one million tons of TNT (1). A "kiloton" is the power of one thousand tons of TNT. Bombs likely to be available to terrorist organizations or governments other than the great military powers would be in the 10- to 100-kiloton range. Bombs made by amateurs might not explode with the full power they were designed for.

The two bombs that have been exploded over cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in August 1945, were in the ten- to twenty-kiloton range.

(1) TNT stands for tri-nitro-toluene, a high explosive commonly used in shells and bombs throughout the Second World War. Weight for weight, its explosive power is roughly equal to that of dynamite.]

First, we will look at the result of a single bomb of one megaton detonated at an altitude of 2,500 metres above a city, to cause maximum blast effects. This is believed to have been a main part of the targeting strategy of the Soviet Union and the United States during the "Cold War". The Russian and U.S. governments have stated that missiles would not remain targeted on cities. However, thousands of missiles and warheads are still deployed. They could be targeted on any city in the world in a matter of minutes, and re-targeted to their original targets in seconds.

The first effect of a nuclear explosion in the air is an intense flash of light, as quick as a lightning flash but a thousand times as bright. It is accompanied by a powerful pulse of heat radiation, sufficient to set fire to light combustible material out to a distance of fourteen km., and to paint or wood at half that distance. There is also an intense pulse of X-rays, sufficient to be lethal at a distance of three km.; in fact that would be a rather small factor, since people that close would all or nearly all be killed by the blast that follows.

Immediately after the flash, a "fireball" forms in the air and rises for several seconds, blindingly bright and radiating much heat. On a clear day or night, people up to eighty km. away who happened to be facing that way, or who turned their eyes to look where the flash came from, would be temporarily or permanently blinded.

Within ten km. of "ground zero" (which is the point directly under the explosion) all parts of the body exposed to the flash would be burned deeply into the flesh. Superficial burns would be caused at greater distances, out to fifteen km. at least. Clothing that caught fire would cause many more burns. The weather conditions prevailing, and the time of day the bomb exploded, would both influence the degrees of damage. For example, the radii for skin burns and blindness would depend on the weather. Mist or fog reduces the range of the heat and light rays; on the other hand, darkness dilates the pupils of the eyes increasing the probability of severe eye damage from the flash.

Starting at the same instant, but travelling more slowly (like the sound of thunder following a lightning flash) is an enormously powerful blast wave. It would destroy even reinforced concrete buildings for a radius of two km., and ordinary brick or timber frame houses out to eight km. Major damage to houses would extend out to fourteen km., and windows would be broken at twenty or thirty km. People at a distance, if they realized what had happened when they saw the flash, would have a few seconds to lie down, or even to dive into a ditch or hollow, before the blast hit.

Within three km., almost everyone would be killed, either directly by the blast or by collapsing or flying masonry. At eight km., it is estimated that about fifty per cent of people would be killed by the effects of the blast.

Immediately following the blast wave would be hurricane force winds, first outwards from the explosion, and many seconds later inwards to replace the air that went out. Within four km., the wind would be of tornado force, six hundred km./hr., sufficient to drive straws into wooden utility poles or glass splinters into people, but of course over a much wider area than a tornado. People in the open would be picked up and hurled into any object strong enough to be still standing.

Many fires would have been started by the first flash. Burst fuel tanks, gas mains, and collapsed buildings would provide more fuel, and it is likely that confluent fires would cause a "firestorm". This is when coalescent fires cause sufficient updraft to form their own wind, blowing inwards from all sides and thereby increasing the intensity of the fire. The temperature even in basements and bomb shelters rises above lethal levels, and all available oxygen is used by the fire.

The wind blowing inwards is of gale force, so that even strong uninjured people would have difficulty walking or trying to run outwards away from the fire.

A nuclear explosion, as well as giving off a great pulse of radiation at the time, leaves everything in the vicinity radioactive. In the case of an "air-burst" as just described, most of the radioactive products would be gaseous, or completely vaporized, and would rise with the fireball and come down slowly, if at all. There might be a rainstorm containing radioactivity, as there was at Hiroshima; and the rubble within a kilometre or two of the ground zero would be radioactive. This might hamper later rescue efforts, and affect the very few survivors from that central area, but would not be a major factor.

In any nuclear bomb explosion, a large fraction (a minimum of one-third) of the original fissile material (plutonium or U-235) does not get destroyed. This would result in widespread contamination, increasing the late risk of cancer for those who survived ten to twenty years. (These amounts of plutonium and uranium would have no immediate toxic effects.)

If the bomb exploded squarely over the centre of a city, no rescue services within the area of major structural damage would be able to function. All down-town hospitals would be destroyed, and there would be no electricity, water, or telephone communication in the area served by city utilities.

Rescue services from outside would be hampered by impassable roads and the central area of severe damage would be inaccessible. The number of injured in the peripheral area would be so great that emergency services of surrounding cities would be completely overloaded, as would be any surviving suburban hospitals and all the hospitals of neighbouring cities. Even to be seen by a doctor and given analgesics, the injured from one city would need to be distributed among all the hospitals of North America.

The destroyed city would be radioactive. Decisions to attempt rescue work would depend first on a survey of the area by a specialist team with appropriate protection, and then on a policy decision as to how much radiation the rescue teams should be permitted. Willingness of the team members and their unions to accept the risk would be a final factor.

The estimates for a city of one million or two million struck by a single one-megaton bomb are that around one third of the inhabitants would be killed instantly or fatally injured, one third seriously injured, and the rest uninjured or only slightly injured. That number of injured, if they could be distributed throughout the hospitals of North America, would occupy something like a third of the total number of beds; and of course no hospital can deal adequately with such an influx of urgent cases within a few days.

There might be fifty times as many cases of severe burns as there are burn beds in the whole of North America. A whole year's supply of blood for transfusion would be needed immediately, and of course is not available in storage nor could it be collected from volunteers in a few days.

The injured who reached hospitals would have to be assayed for radioactivity, for the safety of the staff, which would cause a serious bottle-neck and delay in most hospitals.

The result of this huge overload of cases is that most of the injured would die, even though prompt treatment might have saved them. Relatively few would even get reached by rescue teams before they were moribund or dead; the majority would probably die in hours or days without any analgesic, and without food, water, or any assistance.

If the bomb exploded at ground level instead of high above the city, the main difference would be an enormous crater four hundred metres across and seventy metres deep. All the dirt, rock, or masonry excavated would be made into radioactive dust and small debris. The larger particles would quickly descend in the immediate vicinity, and the finer particles and dust would descend in minutes or hours, mainly downwind from the site of the explosion.

The radiation dose to people exposed to this fallout would depend upon many factors, and would be enough to be lethal to anyone in the open or in a frame house for several hundred kilometres downwind. A simple basement "fallout shelter" would afford good protection. It would be necessary to spend a week or more in a fall-out shelter, and it would be impossible to judge when it would be safe to leave without a radiation survey meter or advice from public health authorities.

The area of blast damage would be smaller by perhaps a half, compared with an air-burst, though an earthquake effect would add to structural damage to buildings. The number of immediate deaths might be about half of those from an air-burst, but unless survivors could find protection from fall-out there would be many deaths from radiation sickness days or weeks after the bomb.

If a bomb in the 10- to 20-kiloton range (the likeliest terrorist bomb) were to be exploded near ground level or in a ship in the harbour, the areas of blast, heat, and burn damage would be much smaller, perhaps reaching out to only one-tenth of the distances estimated for the one-megaton air-burst. The numbers of immediately killed and severely injured people would be counted in thousands, not hundreds of thousands.

Exploded on land, the bomb would vaporize all people and buildings in the immediate vicinity, and make a crater that might be as much as one hundred metres in diameter. If in the harbour, there would be a crater in the harbour floor and a tidal wave. The outstanding feature would be a radioactive downpour because much of the water in the harbour would be made radioactive and thrown high into the air as fine and coarse spray.

The explosion at ground level of this type of bomb would probably not cause a firestorm, so rescue operations for the injured might have some degree of success.

In either case, radioactive fallout would be serious, and might make the city, and an area of countryside stretching tens of kilometres downwind, uninhabitable for weeks or years. There would be a number of deaths from radiation sickness, for which there is really no effective medical treatment. The total amount of radioactivity might be comparable with the Chernobyl disaster, more or less depending on many circumstances.

This is a small 'hydrogen bomb' in the 1- to 10-kiloton range without the outer casing of depleted uranium, which in an ordinary hydrogen bomb stops the neutrons that are formed and converts them into additional explosive power. The result is a spray of neutrons that is lethal for a distance of a few hundred metres. These neutrons, unlike the X-rays from the explosion, penetrate a considerable thickness of concrete or steel protection, like defence posts or the sides of a tank. They are designed for 'battle-field' use, not for use against cities. It is commonly said that neutron bombs spare buildings, but we believe this is a misconception. The blast effect would be reduced by half, and would still be enormous.

It is worth considering what circumstances might result in one or just a few nuclear bombs exploding, as opposed to a major nuclear war.

We hope, but we cannot be sure, that a nuclear attack by one of the "great powers" against a smaller country (which has been threatened several times since 1945) would never be carried out for any reason whatever.

There have been serious risks of war involving smaller military powers with nuclear weapons, such as India, Pakistan, and Israel. Clear or veiled threats of nuclear attack have been made by these countries, and might be again. Such use would most probably be directed at cities, and the bombs delivered by aircraft or relatively short-range rocket. It might be air-burst or ground-burst, with bombs in the ten- to one-hundred kiloton range.

Accidental or unauthorized launch of an intercontinental missile or a submarine-launched missile from one of the big nuclear arsenals might destroy a city with a bomb in the range of 100 kilotons to 1 megaton.

A terrorist type of attack is perhaps the most likely risk, and might be done by criminals for blackmail or ransom, or might be directed by an unidentified hostile government against a country too powerful for a declaration of war to be considered. It is possible that a 'hydrogen bomb' might be acquired from one of the superpower arsenals, and delivered by ship to the harbour of a port. More likely is a bomb in the ten-kiloton range exploded at ground level in a city, or in a ship.

An accident to a nuclear weapon, such as dropping it down a silo or from an aircraft, would not cause a full-scale nuclear explosion, but could scatter kilograms of plutonium by detonation of the high-explosive charge. To cause a nuclear explosion, the charge has to be detonated absolutely simultaneously all round the nuclear core, which is done by special electric circuits. Accidental detonation by a shock would not do this, but one wonders whether an electrical fault or a lightning stroke could ever do it.

The above description was set in the context of a North American city. As proliferation of nuclear weapons continues, there is a greater risk that a tropical city may be attacked.

In such circumstances, the deaths and injuries from firestorms and flash burns would be higher than in the North American context, because many of the dwellings would be of light construction, and a higher proportion of the population would be likely to be in the open at the time of the explosion.

The distances quoted from ground zero are derived from a number of secondary sources, which do not all agree. Basically the numbers are derived from United States government measurements made during the years before 1963, when test nuclear explosions were permitted in the atmosphere.

It does not really matter if some of these distances are not accurate. Similarly, even if the estimates of deaths and injuries are considerably over-stated, the consequences of exploding a nuclear bomb and giving rise to a disaster even approaching this magnitude - anywhere on earth - remain completely unacceptable.

The only way to abolish this risk is to get rid of all the nuclear bombs in the world.

High-altitude electromagnetic pulses (HEMP) produced by high-altitude bursts occur in an area of the atmosphere where the density of the air is low. Because of this, the gamma rays can travel very far before they are absorbed. These rays travel downward into the increasingly dense atmosphere. The electric field has a rise time of about 1 nanosecond. Even with such a short pulse, the effects can be tremendous. For a high altitude burst, the effects can also be far reaching. By many calculations, one properly placed nuclear bomb (possibly hidden in a satellite) detonated above the center of the United States could produce huge electrical fields. "The EMP from a single hydrogen bomb exploded 300 kilometers over the heart of the United States could set up an electrical field 50 kV/m strong over nearly all of North America". Since EMP is electromagnetic radiation traveling at the speed of light, all of the area could possibly be effected almost simultaneously. All communications, television, radio, cars, trucks, planes, etc could be effected resulting in an Electronic blanket where all electronics in our country could be neutralized including the knowledge of the Nuclear attack...

SEOUL (AFP) - A huge explosion rocked North Korea (news - web sites)'s northern inland province of Ryanggang last week, triggering a mushroom-shaped cloud near the country's secret underground military base, South Korean news agency Yonhap said.

The explosion appeared to be stronger than an April 22 rail blast which killed more than 150 people near the border with China. However, there were no indications that it was a nuclear blast.

Pyongyang stunned the world in August 1998 by test-launching over Japan a Taepodong-1 missile with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers. Report:
Mushroom Cloud Seen After N.Korea Explosion Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:33 PM ET

MORE SEOUL (Reuters) - A mushroom cloud up to 2.5 miles in diameter was seen after an explosion in a remote area of North Korea near the border with China, Yonhap news agency reported on Sunday, quoting sources in Beijing. The South Korean news agency said Thursday's blast in Kimhyungjik county in Yanggang province appeared to much worse than a train explosion that killed
at least 170 people in April. South Korean intelligence officials said they were monitoring the report, but declined detailed comment.

ÃƒÆ’Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

September 12, 2004
Atomic Activity in North Korea Raises Concerns
By DAVID E. SANGER and WILLIAM J. BROAD

ASHINGTON, Sept. 11 - President Bush and his top advisers have received intelligence reports in recent days describing a confusing series of actions by North Korea that some experts believe could indicate the country is preparing to conduct its first test explosion of a nuclear weapon, according to senior officials with access to the intelligence.

While the indications were viewed as serious enough to warrant a warning to the White House, American intelligence agencies appear divided about the significance of the new North Korean actions, much as they were about the evidence concerning Iraq's alleged weapons stockpiles.

Some analysts in agencies that were the most cautious about the Iraq findings have cautioned that they do not believe the activity detected in North Korea in the past three weeks is necessarily the harbinger of a test. A senior scientist who assesses nuclear intelligence says the new evidence "is not conclusive," but is potentially worrisome.

If successful, a test would end a debate that stretches back more than a decade over whether North Korea has a rudimentary arsenal, as it has boasted in recent years. Some analysts also fear that a test could change the balance of power in Asia, perhaps leading to a new nuclear arms race there.

In interviews on Friday and Saturday, senior officials were reluctant to provide many details of the new activities they have detected, but some of the information appears to have come from satellite intelligence.

One official with access to the intelligence called it "a series of indicators of increased activity that we believe would be associated with a test," saying that the "likelihood" of a North Korean test had risen significantly in just the past four weeks. It was that changed assessment that led to the decision to give an update to President Bush, the officials said.

The activities included the movement of materials around several suspected test sites, including one near a location where intelligence agencies reported last year that conventional explosives were being tested that could compress a plutonium core and set off a nuclear blast. But officials have not seen the classic indicators of preparations at a test site, in which cables are laid to measure an explosion in a deep test pit.

"I'm not sure you would see that in a country that has tunnels everywhere," said one senior official who has reviewed the data. Officials said if North Korea proceeded with a test, it would probably be with a plutonium bomb, perhaps one fabricated from the 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods that the North has boasted in the past few months have been reprocessed into bomb fuel.

A senior intelligence official noted Saturday that even if "they are doing something, it doesn't mean they will" conduct a test, noting that preparations that the North knew could be detected by the United States might be a scare tactic or negotiating tactic by the North Korean government.

Several officials speculated that the test, if it occurred, could be intended to influence the presidential election, though a senior military official said while "an election surprise" could be the motive, "I'm not sure what that would buy them."

While the intelligence community's experience in Iraq colors how it assesses threats in places like North Korea, the comparisons are inexact. Inspectors have seen and measured the raw material that the North could turn into bomb fuel; the only question is whether they have done so in the 20 months since arms inspectors were ousted. While Iraq denied it has weapons, the North boasts about them - perhaps too loudly, suggesting they may have less than they say.

On the other hand, the divisions within the administration over how to deal with North Korea mirrors some of the old debate about Iraq. Hard-liners in the Pentagon and the vice president's office have largely opposed making concessions of any kind in negotiations, and Vice President Dick Cheney has warned that "time is not on our side" to deal with the question. The State Department has pressed the case for negotiation, and for offering the North a face-saving way out. While the State Department has won the argument in recent times, how to deal with the North is a constant battle inside the administration.

Some of the senior officials who discussed the emerging indicators were clearly trying to warn North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Il, that his actions were being closely watched. Asian officials noted that there has been speculation in South Korea and Japan for some time that Mr. Kim might try to stage an incident - perhaps a missile test or the withdrawal of more raw nuclear fuel from a reactor - in an effort to display defiance before the election. "A test would be a vivid demonstration of their view of President Bush," one senior Asian diplomat said.

The intelligence information was discussed in interviews with officials from five government agencies, ranging from those who believe a test may occur at any moment to those who are highly skeptical. They had differing access to the intelligence: some had reviewed the raw data and others had seen a classified intelligence report about the possibility of a test, perhaps within months, that has circulated in Washington in the past week. Most, but not all, were career officials.

If North Korea successfully tested a weapon, the reclusive country would become the eighth nation to have proven nuclear capability - Israel is also assumed to have working weapons - and it would represent the failure of 14 years of efforts to stop the North's nuclear program.

Government officials throughout Asia and members of Mr. Bush's national security team have also feared it could change the nuclear politics of Asia, fueling political pressure in South Korea and Japan to develop a nuclear deterrent independent of the United States.

Both countries have the technological skill and the raw material to produce a bomb, though both have insisted they would never do so. South Korea has admitted in the past few weeks that it conducted experiments that outside experts fear could produce bomb-grade fuel, first in the early 1980's and then in 2000.

Senior officials in South Korea and Japan did not appear to have been briefed about the new evidence, beyond what one called "a nonspecific warning of a growing problem" from American officials. But it is a measure of the extraordinary nervousness about the North's intentions that earlier this week, South Korean intelligence officials who saw evidence of an intense fire at a suspected nuclear location alerted their American counterparts that a small nuclear test might have already occurred. American officials reviewed seismic sensors and other data and concluded it was a false alarm, though the fire has yet to be explained.

[A huge explosion rocked an area in North Korea near the border with China on Thursday and appeared to be much bigger than a blast at the Ryongchon train station that killed 170 people in April, Reuters said, citing a report by the Yonhap news agency of South Korea. The United States "is showing a big interest because the blast was seen from satellites,'' Yonhap quoted an unidentified official in Beijing as saying.

[The cause of the blast has not been determined, but the Beijing official said Washington was not ruling out the possibility that it may be linked to a nuclear test. Yonhap reported that a mushroom cloud up to 2.5 miles in diameter was spotted after the blast in remote Yanggang province in the far northeast.] North Korea has declared several times in the past year that it might move to demonstrate its nuclear power. It is impossible to know how such a test might affect public perceptions of how Mr. Bush has handled potential threats to the United States. Senator John Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, has already accused President Bush of an "almost myopic" focus on Iraq that has distracted the United States while North Korea, by some intelligence estimates, has increased its arsenal from what the C.I.A. suspects was one or two weapons to six or eight now.

Mr. Bush, while declaring he would not "tolerate" a nuclear North Korea, has insisted that his approach of involving China, Russia, Japan and South Korea in a new round of talks with the North is the only reasonable way to force the country to disarm. He has refused to set the kind of deadline for disarmament that he set for Saddam Hussein.

When asked in an interview with The New York Times two weeks ago to define what he meant by "tolerate," he said: "I don't think you give timelines to dictators and tyrants. I think it's important for us to continue to lead coalitions that are firm and strong, in sending messages to both the North Koreans and the Iranians."

Eric Schmitt contributed reporting for this article
North Korea Restarts Reactor, Neighbors Urge Calm

SEOUL/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - North Korea has restarted the reactor at the heart of its suspected drive for nuclear weapons, further raising the stakes in its diplomatic showdown with the United States, U.S. officials said.

Activating the small research reactor at Yongbyon, the communist North's latest provocative step in a crisis that erupted last year, comes as the United States prepares for war with Iraq and South Korea forms a new government.

"I think this is another example of the regime of North Korea taking escalatory actions in order to gain concessions," said Sean McCormack, the White House National Security Council spokesman. "We seek a peaceful diplomatic solution, but all options remain on the table."

U.S. officials said there was no sign North Korea had reactivated its nuclear fuel reprocessing plant, which would be of even greater concern because it would take the North a step closer to adding to the two nuclear bombs it is believed to have.

"Part of this demonstrates their desire to continue their nuclear weapons program and it's another effort to apply pressure on the United States," another U.S. official said.

Analysts in Seoul saw the move as yet another North Korean attempt to shake new President Roh Moo-hyun, who has been at odds with Washington over how to deal with the crisis. The North upstaged Roh's inauguration on Tuesday by firing a short-range missile into international waters off its east coast.

In Beijing, China and Russia -- friends of North Korea and permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- issued a joint communique promising to push for dialogue between the United States and North Korea to resolve the nuclear crisis.

"China and Russia will try their best to push for dialogue between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the United States," the communique said.

Asked about the reactor, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said: "We believe the main thing at the moment is that each side keeps calm and exercises restraint and avoids taking action that will escalate the situation."

Reaction in Seoul to North Korea's latest move was muted, as Roh and his new prime minister finalized their cabinet.

"We are trying to find out more about it," said a South Korean government source, adding that Seoul would hold consultations with allies Japan and the United States.

"Even in the United States it is still at the level of intelligence, very raw intelligence," the source added.

In Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi urged a calm and cautious response while the news was being analyzed.

"We have received information that it has been restarted. We don't know yet to what degree," Koizumi told reporters.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the intelligence was obtained through satellite photographs.

New Prime Minister Goh Kun said South Korea would move to tackle what he said was a "serious threat to world peace" as soon as Roh's new cabinet -- named on Thursday -- began its work.

"The new government's primary task will be the peaceful resolution of the North Korean nuclear issues while strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance," Goh told reporters.

Roh's new cabinet line-up retained the outgoing Kim Dae-jung government's minister in charge of relations with North Korea in a sign he wants to continue Kim's conciliatory policies.

Roh, who has limited foreign policy experience, wants to avoid using force against the North and said the collapse of the impoverished state would only hurt the South.

"The North is going to keep doing this, trying to test South Korea's new government to see how Roh Moo-hyun will react to this nuclear threat," said Yu Suk-Ryul, an expert on North Korea at Seoul's Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security.

There was no statement on the reactor from North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the main outlet for announcements from Pyongyang.

On Wednesday though, KCNA carried a statement by North Korea's Foreign Ministry saying Washington was preparing to strike not only Iraq but also the North.

"The U.S. military strike against Iraq is just a matter of time. The ceaseless saber-rattling staged by the U.S. in South Korea against this backdrop is creating an extremely tense situation where it may make a pre-emptive strike at the DPRK any time," a ministry spokesman said.

The Korean crisis was sparked last October when the United States said Pyongyang had admitted developing a highly enriched uranium program in violation of a 1994 accord, under which the North froze its nuclear program in exchange for two modern reactors and economic assistance.

U.S. officials said North Korea had restarted a five-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon mothballed in 1994. Last month, U.S. satellites showed North Korea was moving fresh fuel rods to Yongbyon, U.S. officials have said.

"This is certainly less provocative than starting up the reprocessing facility, but it is significant nonetheless," said a U.S. official in Washington who declined to be identified.

The United States was working with members of the U.N. Security Council and others to find a solution, McCormack said.

"With each step it takes to advance its nuclear capability North Korea further isolates itself from the international community," he said.

"We have proposed multilateral talks to include North Korea, and remain prepared to engage in those talks."

North Korea demands bilateral talks with the United States. That stance is backed by China, Russia and South Korea -- although Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov also endorsed multilateral talks.

Bush administration officials have seemed increasingly convinced Pyongyang is determined to launch full-scale production of nuclear weapons.

North Korea restarting its reactor did not automatically mean it would next start reprocessing nuclear fuel, but such a move would not be surprising, another U.S. official said.

An even more significant step would be movement of 8,000 spent fuel rods, that have already gone through the reactor, from a holding pond where they have been stored under the 1994 agreement. Plutonium can be extracted by reprocessing the rods.

North Korea's test-firing of a missile into the Sea of Japan sent judders across Asia yesterday, causing stock markets to fall. The missile launch, which took place as Roh Moo Hyun, the South's President, took office in a ceremony attended by world leaders, seemed designed to embarrass Mr Roh, and was a slap in the face for the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, who was at the inauguration.

The new President has said he is determined to build "mutual trust" with the North and to persuade the United States to follow its lead.

General Powell tried to play down the significance of the missile test, saying it appeared to be "fairly innocuous".

On a stopover in Alaska last night, General Powell announced that, contrary to earlier indications, North Korea had chosen not to restart its nuclear reactor and reprocessing plant at Yongbyon. "I think that's a wise choice if it's a conscious choice," he said.

But, he added, bilateral talks, as proposed by the North, were not an option. "We simply will not, because North Korea demands something, yield to that something," General Powell said. "It is their actions that have caused this problem and they cannot be the 'demander' as to the manner in which it's going to be resolved."

The missile test came before General Powell announced the resumption of US food aid to the North. Deliveries stopped in October after the North admitted it had a secret programme to enrich uranium in violation of the 1994 agreement with Japan, South Korea and the US.

In his inaugural address, Mr Roh said the suspicion that the North was developing nuclear weapons posed "a grave threat to world peace". He said: "It is up to Pyongyang whether to go ahead and obtain nuclear weapons or to get guarantees for the security of its regime and international economic support."

Japan said the North had launched two land-to-ship missiles. One failed and the other flew 37 miles across the Sea of Japan. Japanese reports said the missile was made in China. However, China, which has promised the US to exercise its influence over its neighbour and to end missile technology sales, denied the allegation.

The missile tests, which follow an intrusion into South Korean airspace by a North Korean jet last week, are a reminder of how often the North has frustrated the hopes raised by the "Sunshine Policy" of engagement with the North.

Although North Korea has a long practice of staging military incidents to back demands for aid, the timing will hinder efforts to persuade the US to re-open direct talks with the North. Australia, China and South Korea in urging General Powell to agree to the North's demands for bilateral talks and a non-aggression treaty.

Washington says North Korea broke the terms of the last deal, negotiated bilaterally in 1994, and it now wants discussions only with all neigh- bouring countries taking part.

Mr Roh called for a shift in a relationship forged in the Cold War. Washington is now considering moves to lessen tensions including moving its large military base out of Seoul.

The missile test caused particular alarm in Japan, which is considering major changes to its military strategy to cope with the threat from the North. Japan was shocked when, in 1998, North Korea fired a three-stage missile that flew 600 miles over Japan.

Diplomats say North Korea fears that after the US has seen off Saddam Hussein, it will turn its attention to North Korea and try to overthrow the leader, Kim Jong Il. General Powell denied that the US had a policy of "regime change".

In recent weeks, Pyongyang has withdrawn from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and threatened pre-emptive strikes against US targets if it believed the US was about to attack. Yesterday, as the new South Korean president was being sworn in, the North test-fired a missile into the Sea of Japan. Its nuclear ambitions have so alarmed neighbours that Japan's defence minister said his country would have to consider going nuclear itself. The crisis has accelerated, along with the US plans for a war against Iraq. Not surprisingly, after President Bush named North Korea as part of an "axis of evil", Pyongyang claims it could be next on the US hit list, and it's arming itself against that possibility. So how far could this crisis escalate? Joining Tony Jones is Kenneth Quinones. He was the US State Department's North Korea affairs officer and then a Korea analyst in the department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research during the 1990s. He's now the director of the Korea Program at the International Centre, a Washington research institute.

In recent weeks, Pyongyang has withdrawn from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and threatened pre-emptive strikes against US targets if it believed the US was about to attack.

Yesterday, as the new South Korean president was being sworn in, the North test-fired a missile into the Sea of Japan.

Its nuclear ambitions have so alarmed neighbours that Japan's defence minister said his country would have to consider going nuclear itself.

Not surprisingly, after President Bush named North Korea as part of an "axis of evil", Pyongyang claims it could be next on the US hit list, and it's arming itself against that possibility.

He was the US State Department's North Korea affairs officer and then a Korea analyst in the department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research during the 1990s.

He's now the director of the Korea Program at the International Centre, a Washington research institute.

KENNETH QUINONES, INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH CENTRE: Unfortunately, I do believe those chances tend to be increasing, rather than decreasing.

So long as the Bush Administration holds off from directly engaging in bilateral talks with Pyonyang, the risk of war will continue to escalate.

KENNETH QUINONES: It would be devastating, particularly for the people of north-east Asia.

Initially it would have a very negative, profound impact on the populations of South Korea, possibly several cities in Japan, because of North Korea's ballistic missile capability.

Additionally, you would have a massive retaliatory attack from the United States and South Korea focused on North Korea.

Ultimately, it's even conceivable that the United States and China might come to a point of hostile confrontation.

TONY JONES: How likely do you think in the initial stages would a nuclear exchange be, if North Korea were attacked by America?

First, I don't think the North Koreans really possess a nuclear capability at this time, and I'm sure the United States would do everything in its ability to refrain from using such weapons.

TONY JONES: How long do you think we've got, though, before the North Koreans did gain a nuclear capacity, and does that possibility actually accelerate, in itself, the chances of a conflict?

KENNETH QUINONES: Well, I understand Secretary of State Powell yesterday told reporters that there's no indication North Korea has restarted its nuclear reactor at Yongbyon nuclear research centre, nor is there any indication that it has resumed reprocessing of nuclear spent fuels.

So I think much of North Korea's claims regarding restarting its nuclear program have been largely rhetoric.

North Korea wants negotiations and so long as it holds off from actually restarting its nuclear weapons program, the possibility of bilateral talks remains open.

Once it reprocesses or actually takes steps in the direction of nuclear weapons manufacture, it will lose the opportunity of bilateral talks, but also lose support from Beijing and Moscow.

TONY JONES: I'm surprised to hear you say that you're certain that they have no nuclear weapons.

I thought there was a CIA assessment that they may indeed have a number of nuclear devices already.

KENNETH QUINONES: I think the CIA assessment is always a worst-case scenario.

When I was in the Department of State and representing the Department of State, I was involved in a national intelligence estimate, and we concluded that there was a possibility that North Korea had sufficient plutonium, not necessarily nuclear weapons.

I don't think they've gone beyond that to actually assembling nuclear weapons.

TONY JONES: Now, you still speak today to North Korean officials, I believe.

Do you think that we'd be in the position we are today if President Bush had not named North Korea as part of an axis of evil?

KENNETH QUINONES: I do believe we would be in a much less stressful situation if the President had restrained his rhetoric.

I think also contributing to the increasing tensions is not only President Bush's rhetoric, but also his diplomatic approach to this situation.

If you are going to deal with a crisis, the only way to resolve it is through direct talks, not through indirect rhetoric, vented through international media.

Unfortunately, I think the Bush Administration has accented rhetoric over negotiation.

TONY JONES: Now, as we said earlier, you were the first US diplomat to meet Kim Il-Sun.

What's your assessment of his son, Kim Jong-Il, who's obviously taken over from the father?

KENNETH QUINONES: I think -- a realistic estimate has to give Kim Jong-Il credit for having pulled his nation back from the brink of collapse, bankruptcy and famine.

Particularly, he has been able to garner international aid from the United Nations and the international humanitarian organisations.

He has also increased the number of nations that maintain diplomatic relations with him.

I think there's a lot of capability behind his physical appearance and the other negative images that we often hear of him.

Is he the one who, in the end, President Bush or Colin Powell ought to be talking to if there are indeed bilateral talks some time soon?

KENNETH QUINONES: Yes, I'm sure he is in control of the situation in Pyongyang.

It's clear he is heavily dependent upon his ageing military advisers for advice and policy recommendations, but nevertheless he is the man who holds ultimate power.

TONY JONES: As you know, our own foreign minister, Alexander Downer, an ironclad ally of the United States, has been urging Colin Powell to tell Washington that they need to start quickly those bilateral talks with North Korea.

KENNETH QUINONES: Washington seems to believe that the ultimate purpose here is not necessarily disarming North Korea.

I do believe Washington is looking beyond that to ultimately disbanding or having the Kim Jong-Il regime collapse.

Washington believes holding back will further nudge the Kim Jong-Il regime toward collapse.

Kim Jong-Il, as I said before, has already pulled his country back from the brink of collapse.

He now has staunch continuing support from Beijing and Moscow, and so long as he carefully crafts his policy, avoids nuclear reprocessing and so forth, I think he will be able to maintain his position.

The Bush Administration's position in short is not realistically assessing the future capabilities of the North Korean regime.

TONY JONES: So you believe the Bush policy in North Korea as in Iraq and indeed Iran is actually regime change and that's driving this?

KENNETH QUINONES: Yes, I think that's actually the ultimate goal of the Bush Administration's objectives here.

Publicly, upfront, they're emphasising weapons of mass destruction and so forth, but I think they believe the only way to rid a country of weapons of mass destruction is to get rid of the regime that supports such weapons.

I mean, clearly what the United States want -- what Colin Powell is talking about is having this whole thing moved into the UN Security Council, and I suppose that will make the North Korean's fear that they will now be subject, or eventually be subject, to a series of resolutions demanding that they disarm in the same way as has happened with Iraq.

KENNETH QUINONES: I think we've seen in the case of Iraq, the harder the Bush Administration is pushed on Iraq, the greater the international consensus favouring inspections, favouring a diplomatic outcome, and increasing opposition to war.

The harder the Bush Administration pushes on Pyongyang and makes demands on Pyongyang, the greater the international consensus that the North Korea crisis be resolved through direct bilateral negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang, and if this issue moves to the United Nations Security Council, once in the Security Council, Beijing and Moscow will then have the leverage to influence Washington by saying, "Look, if you want a resolution condemning North Korea, you, Washington, will have to meet us halfway and engage the North Koreans in bilateral talks".

TONY JONES: Now, the North Koreans have already threatened they might use the pre-emptive doctrine that the United States is now sort of talking about quite openly in relation to Iraq.

They might use it themselves to defend against any possible attack from the United States.

KENNETH QUINONES: I tend to believe it is more sabre-rattling than anything else.

Pyongyang is noted for making such lofty claims and not following up on them.

The reason I think Pyongyang would hold off on a pre-emptive strike is it would then lose China's commitment to defend North Korea.

The Chinese-North Korean Defence Treaty only provides -- obligates China to defend North Korea if there is a foreign attack on North Korea.

It does not obligate Beijing to defend Pyongyang in the event of a North Korean attack on another nation.

TONY JONES: Very briefly, as a final question, how likely do you think we are to see a regional nuclear arms race of the sort that the Japanese Defence Minister has been warning about?

I don't believe the Japanese people are ready to see their country go in that direction, and I think the South Koreans likewise don't want to go in that direction, and all the nations in the region would prefer a peaceful outcome and not to go nuclear.

Kenneth Quinones, thank you very much for getting up so early in the morning to join us.

The United States has been urging China to exert a stronger influence on North Korea to defuse the nuclear standoff.

But China has insisted that the issue should be settled by talks between Washington and Pyongyang.

In terms of regular contacts with the North Korean leadership, no country is in a better position than China.

But more than just political influence, China also has strong economic leverage over Pyongyang.

Half of China's foreign aid goes to North Korea, and Beijing supplies 40 percent of the impoverished nation's food needs.

China also provides over 80 percent of North Korea's oil imports, most of which, critics say, is used to fuel the country's military machine.

Yet there are few signs that Beijing is prepared to use its leverage to rein in what has been described as Pyongyang's dangerous behaviour.

Ms Zhang Qiyue, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said: "The US said the issue should be solved in a multilateral setting. But the basic consensus is that this is a bilateral issue between the US and North Korea. We hope the problem can be solved through dialogue and other political means."

Mr Colin Powell, US Secretary of State, said: "We are prepared to address this issue with North Korea in a multilateral context in which China and other nations can participate. It's a matter for China, it's a matter for South Korea, it's a matter for Japan, it's a matter for Russia, it's a matter for the UN, the IAEA, it's a matter for the US."

Observers say China's influence over North Korea isn't as strong as Washington and its allies make it out to be.

Professor Lu Qichang, Senior Fellow at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said: "North Korea isn't keen to listen to China. It's unhappy that China, which was once socialist, is now capitalist. The two countries now have different opinions. North Korea has emphasised that it's the world's only truly socialist country."

China is reluctant to cut off aid to its neighbour as it doesn't want to see the total collapse of the North Korean economy.

Apart from regional stability, a collapse will also lead to a flood of refugees on Chinese soil.

Indeed, China's partnership with North Korea, formed along ideological lines and cemented by the Korean War, has never been more severely tested.

Still, it would be wrong to say that Beijing is unconcerned about North Korea's nuclear threat.

Beijing is certainly worried that the threat from Pyongyang would lead to a nuclear arms race in the region.

And a re-militarised and re-armed Japan is the last thing that China wants to see.

SEOUL, South Korea (March 2, 2003) - North Korea warned Sunday of ''nuclear disasters'' around the world if Washington attacks the communist state, while its civilian leaders urged greater cooperation between Pyongyang and Seoul to ease the crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

The North's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper accused the Central Intelligence Agency of preparing a surprise attack on the nation's nuclear facilities that are suspected of being used to make atomic bombs.

''If the U.S. imperialists ignite a war on the Korean Peninsula, the war will turn into a nuclear war,'' Rodong said. ''As a consequence, the Koreans in the north and south and the people in Asia and the rest of the world will suffer horrifying nuclear disasters.''

The report, carried by the North's state-run KCNA news agency, claimed that Washington put its forces around the peninsula on ''semi-war footing'' and ''is pushing ahead with nuclear war preparations in full swing.''

Pyongyang accuses Washington of inciting the nuclear standoff as a pretext for an invasion. Washington has repeatedly said it has no plans to attack North Korea, but stresses that ''all options are on the table.''

In Seoul on Sunday, North Korea's religious and civic leaders took part in inter-Korean religious masses and urged greater cooperation between the two Koreas.

''Preventing war through national cooperation is the most urgent task of the nation,'' said Ri Mun Hwan, a senior North Korean delegate. ''If war breaks out, the South cannot be safe and the entire nation will face disaster.''

Another delegate, Oh Kyung Woo, said the ''United States is threatening a nuclear war, but if war breaks out both South and North will incur damages,'' according to South Korea's national Yonhap news agency.

''Foreign forces will never give us reunification. We must cooperate with each other,'' Oh was quoted as saying.

The comments were made during religious masses at a cathedral, a church, a Buddhist temple and other religious locations, which were attended by thousands of South Koreans.

The ceremonies were a part of an inter-Korean festival to mark the anniversary of a major independence uprising against Japanese colonial rule on March 1, 1919.

Pyongyang sent 105 delegates to Seoul on Saturday for the three-day festival. Both Koreas mark the uprising as a major holiday. Japan ruled the peninsula from 1910 to 1945.

Rodong, monitored by South Korea's national Yonhap news agency, reiterated that the North's nuclear activities were ''strictly for peaceful purposes and poses no threat to anyone.''

''Crushing the U.S. plot to attack North Korea is a very important issue related to peace and safety of Asia and the world, the existence and future of mankind,'' Rodong said.

Raising tensions last week, North Korea test-fired a missile into the sea off its east coast. Pyongyang also reactivated a 5-megawatt reactor that could produce plutonium for nuclear weapons, U.S. and South Korean officials said.

On Saturday, North Korea said nuclear war could break out on the peninsula at ''any moment,'' after South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun warned of a ''calamity'' unless the standoff is resolved peacefully and quickly.

The dispute flared in October when Washington said North Korea had admitted pursuing a nuclear program, which violated a 1994 pact.

Washington and its allies cut off oil shipments to the impoverished communist state. The North responded by saying it would reactivate its frozen facilities. It also expelled U.N. monitors and withdrew from the global Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

HONG KONG: North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has offered political asylum to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, according to a front page story in Sunday's South China Morning Post.

The bizarre tale appears to be the kind of news story that newspapers like to publish on April Fool's Day, except for one thing: it has a credible source.

He is Stanley Ho Hung-sun, the wealthy magnate who runs Macau's gambling casinos, through whom "high-level North Korean officials have offered the Iraqi dictator and his family 11th hour sanctuary in a mountain in North Korea".

Chinese billionaires like Ho do not always possess political acumen but it is usually difficult to take them for a ride. Ho told the SCMP that senior level North Korean officials "told me that there really was a chance to prevent a war and (they) said that Saddam Hussein could step down two days before the US and Britain started to bomb Iraq and he (Saddam) could call democratic elections".

Ho goes on to say that "one of the conditions of those elections would be that none of the candidates would be allowed funding from the US, ensuring that there was no American interference in a future Iraqi democratic state. Anyone who did accept money from the US would be shot"--presumably by a Saddam who had not entirely stepped down prior to the election.

Ho extolled this initiative by saying that "it could be (Saddam Hussein's) trump card. North Korea is willing to give Saddam and his family a mountain in North Korea."

The news story seems to be straight out of Ripley's “Believe It Or Not” except for one thing: Ho does have North Korean connections. The SCMP notes that in 1999 Stanley invested US$30 million in the North when he opened a Casino Pyongyang next to the Korean Workers Party headquarters Date=7/6/99

Intro: News media in Seoul say South Korea has proposed that it be allowed to develop missiles with a longer range of up to 500 kilometers as a deterrent against invasion by communist North Korea, John Larkin reports from Seoul.

Text: South Korea has been pushing for some time to alter a 20-year arrangement with the United States, which restricts it to producing missiles with a maximum range of 180 kilometers.

Newspapers in Seoul report President Kim requested the 500 kilometer range during a meeting with President Clinton in Washington Friday. The two allies had previously been discussing an extension of the allowable range to 300 kilometers only.

The reports say President Clinton listened attentively to President Kim's proposal. But analysts were doubtful Washington will agree, as it fears the step could ignite a regional arms race.

A spokesman for the U-S embassy in Seoul would not comment on the media accounts, but South Korean officials said the proposal was on the table for discussion with Washington.

President Kim's request comes amid fears Pyongyang is about to test a long-range missile last August it sent shockwaves through the region when it test-fired a medium range Taepodong missile over Japanese territory.

Security analysts say South Korea's push for greater missile range is meant to send an uncompromising message to North Korea - after talks between the two Koreas in Beijing last week failed to ease old and new tensions on the peninsula. They say Seoul wants to show Pyongyang that it is not the only regional military power capable of using missiles as a bargaining chip.

The two Koreas have been unable to resolve most differences since the end of the Korean war in 1953. (Signed)

From: http://www.feer.com/articles/2001/0112_13/p014region.html
NORTH KOREA - Welcome to The War

With President Bush's chilling statements suggesting North Korea could be a target in the war on terrorism, the U.S. may have actually lost ground in the quest to find out just what weapons Pyongyang has.

By John Larkin/SEOUL and Murray Hiebert/WASHINGTON
Issue cover-dated December 13, 2001

THE FEBRUARY 8 Vinalon Factory on North Korea's east coast produces a stiff, dye-resistant, virtually unusable textile invented by a local scientist and touted by Pyongyang as superior to nylon. The factory is also rumoured to manufacture a more sinister commodity: chemical weapons.

Finding out exactly what is produced at the facility, and at others in North Korea believed to manufacture and test weapons of mass destruction, is emerging as a controversial new priority for Washington as it prepares the second phase of its declared war on terrorism.

United States officials expressing that priority have stoked fears in Seoul that constructive dialogue with Pyongyang could be the first casualty of this next phase.

Not for the first time, North Korea has been grouped with Iraq as part of Washington's military campaign against Al Qaeda and other terrorist networks. On November 19, Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security John Bolton told a meeting of the Biological Weapons Convention in Geneva that North Korea's biological warfare programme ranked second only to Iraq's as a threat to international security. "North Korea likely has the capability to produce sufficient quantities of biological agents for military purposes," said Bolton.

Those comments--which were cleared by the U.S. National Security Council--were the strongest yet by a senior U.S. official about North Korea's biological weapons programme, about which little is known. Five days later, President George W. Bush again linked North Korea with the war on terrorism. Calling on Pyongyang to permit inspections of its weapons sites, Bush told reporters: "We want to know. Are they developing weapons of mass destruction? And they ought to stop proliferating. So part of the war on terror is to deny terrorist weapons."

Nerves jangled in Seoul as Pyongyang was mentioned in the same breath as Iraq. Short of an invasion from the North, it is unlikely that Seoul would agree to a U.S. military strike against North Korea. But there are fears that a hardening attitude in Washington could lead to a stand-off similar to the showdown in 1994 over Pyongyang's nuclear programme. Conflict was narrowly averted then when former President Jimmy Carter brokered a deal with Pyongyang.

Pro-engagement figures see history repeating itself unless the Bush administration grasps the difference between Iraq, which refuses to negotiate away its weapons, and North Korea, which has signaled a willingness to do so.

"It's essentially impossible for George Bush to blow North Korea up," says John Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org, a defense-policy think-tank. "But he can certainly embark on a policy of malign neglect in which Washington ignores North Korea's attention-getting gestures, like missile tests, forcing North Korea to escalate its attention-getters and having them misinterpreted as preparations for war."

Donald Gregg, a former U.S. ambassador to Seoul, sees a crisis on the horizon if the Bush administration's policy on North Korea is hijacked by hawks like Bolton and Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz. "I think Bolton is an ideologue and a hardliner and has behaved irresponsibly" by delivering his speech, says Gregg. In June Gregg helped goad Bush back toward conciliation with Pyongyang by explaining the benefits of dialogue in a memo sent to George Bush Senior, who passed it on to the White House. "I'm not saying they don't have [weapons], but the way to get rid of them is not to bully but to engage."

At a minimum, Washington is sending mixed signals. The remarks by Bush and Bolton contrast with Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James Kelly's generally upbeat and pro-engagement assessment in late November. It could be the good cop, bad cop routine. But some observers worry that the remarks by Bush and Bolton are a more honest expression of the administration's stance toward Pyongyang than are its public comments supporting engagement. "Bush's mood towards North Korea is decidedly sceptical, borderline hostile," says a congressional aide handling East Asia.

Bush's remarks, as his spokesman Ari Fleischer later stressed, contained nothing new and went nowhere near proposing a military strike against North Korea. Nonetheless, the State Department hurriedly contacted South Korea's embassy in Washington with reassurances that the U.S. still supported of Seoul's policy of engaging North Korea, according to a senior South Korean government official.

But in the context of a broadening war against terrorism to include nations which supply terrorists with missiles or nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, the remarks created considerable unease in Seoul. South Koreans point out that Bush seemed to call for inspections of the entire gamut of Pyongyang's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction--something North Korea is unlikely to concede.

"As a citizen of Seoul, I know that if Bush wants a second war against North Korea, South Korea will suffer greatly," says Choi Won Ki, a reporter covering North Korea for Seoul's JoongAng Ilbo newspaper. Korean policymakers fret that the heightened rhetoric could wreck gains made in engaging North Korea, which include increased business exchanges, family reunions and a fading of military tensions.

Explains the senior South Korean official: "It created unnecessary concern not only for the South Korean public but also in North Korea that the Korean peninsula can be a battleground again. We want a peaceful atmosphere on the peninsula."

Dialogue with North Korea, a process pushed hardest by South Korea's President Kim Dae Jung, who last year won the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts, has been almost nonexistent since Bush took office. Pyongyang broke off talks with Washington in March after Bush publicly stated his mistrust of Kim Jong Il. Inter-Korean talks have been fitful at best since then, despite Secretary of State Colin Powell's insistence that he was ready for talks with North Korea "anywhere, any time."

Powell's offer was viewed as a softening of Washington's stance. But September 11 has bolstered the hardliners. One consequence may be the suspension of construction of two light-water reactors that a consortium of nations agreed to build for North Korea in return for dismantling its older reactors capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium.

The Bush administration is pushing for earlier inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency to ensure North Korea's nuclear facilities pose no threat before key components for the new reactors are shipped. "If the situation is like this I don't think North Korea will fully cooperate," says the senior South Korean official.

Larry Niksch, an Asia specialist with the Library of Congress, believes Bush's broad-brush reference on November 26 to all weapons of mass destruction might indicate a cloudy future for the reactor project. "With the new emphasis post-September 11, the Bush administration may speed up a decision on whether to continue or suspend the project if North Korea is not in compliance."

What weapons is North Korea hiding? It is believed to have abided by the terms of the 1994 Agreed Framework under which it gets the new reactors. But the Central Intelligence Agency believes Pyongyang might have kept enough plutonium to build one or two nuclear weapons. The inspections are meant to find whether it did.

North Korea has the missile systems required to deliver a nuclear warhead. By nature difficult to conceal from satellite cameras, North Korea's missile sites are well documented, though there is dispute over the threat they pose. The best known site is Musudan, on the northeast coast near the towns of Nodong and Taepodong (literally "cannon town")--after which the North's two biggest missiles are named. It is from Musudan that Nodong missiles with a range of 1,000 kilometres were tested to a range of 500 kilometres in 1993.

In August 1998, Pyongyang stunned the world by testing a three-stage Taepodong 1 missile over Japan. The missile splashed into the Pacific Ocean. Work is believed to be well advanced on a Taepodong 2 missile, capable of travelling more than 4,000 kilometres. No tests have been conducted since 1998, but test preparations at Musudan for a rocket the size of the Taepodong 2 were detected by U.S. intelligence in 1999. According to media reports, North Korea may have tested Taepodong missile engines at Musudan, without lift-off, in late 1999 and early 2000.

Exports of these missiles, and the transfer of technical know-how, provide North Korea with its biggest export earner: up to $1 billion in a good year, according to Ko Young Hwan, a former North Korean diplomat who defected in 1991. He told the U.S. Senate in 1997 that Pyongyang sold its missiles mainly to Iran, Syria, Egypt and Libya. Most recently, according to newspaper reports in Israel and South Korea, North Korea sold Nodong missiles and manufacturing technology to Cairo earlier this year.

According to defector reports and analysis of the missile programmes of several Middle Eastern states, North Korea's clients fall into two groups: those like Syria that only buy missiles and others like Iran and Egypt that cooperate with Pyongyang on missile development as well as buying its technology.

Countries in the latter group test missiles based on North Korean blueprints, which could explain Kim Jong Il's willingness to place a moratorium on such tests until 2003 in return for economic and diplomatic benefits from the U.S. Intelligence sources say that the Nodong was first tested by North Korea. Further tests were carried out by Iran, which had based its Shebab 3 missile on the Nodong technology bought from Pyongyang.

The North's chemical weapons programme is believed to be mature. With at least eight factories producing nerve, blister, choking and blood agents in bulk since 1989, estimates of its stockpile run from 250 tonnes to 5,000 tonnes. Production of biological weapons, the renewed concern since the recent anthrax attacks in the U.S., was accelerated at the direction of North Korean leader Kim Il Sung in 1990, according to the Federation of American Scientists.

The FAS says the North probably has limited quantities of biological toxins including anthrax, yellow fever and smallpox. Though it joined the Biological Weapons Convention in 1987, North Korea has refused to be bound by it, one of the factors behind Undersecretary Bolton's comments on November 19.

But pinning North Korea down won't be easy. Han Sung Joo, who was South Korea's foreign minister during the 1993-94 nuclear crisis, when North Korea breached the Treaty on Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, says extending the war on terrorism by demanding access to the North's biological weapons and missile facilities would be a long shot at best.

"Unlike in 1994, there's no legal instrument to fall back on," says Han. "Therefore it would be very difficult to bring the international community to join the U.S. effort to open up North Korea to inspections."

Bolton is pushing for a toughening of the Biological Weapons Convention to ensnare nations that flout it. But the U.S. will find it tough to move ahead on North Korean chemical and biological weapons without hard evidence of North Korean sales of such to the likes of Al Qaeda. To date, the only evidence to support this notion was a sketchy news report in November quoting a Taliban witness saying he saw a germ-warfare specialist who may have been North Korean instructing Al Qaeda operatives.

Given these difficulties, Washington might find it has little choice but to show more patience with North Korea. "Our hands are tied when dealing with North Korea," explains a former U.S. State Department official. "We can't do military action. The administration is starting to play up the biological weapons programme, but I don't think they've discovered anything new in North Korea. It's just a lot of public posturing."

Washington may be playing games of its own. South Korean officials hold the hope that the Bush administration's new focus on North Korea is more about building domestic support for its missile-defense system than freezing out Pyongyang.

Another positive for those who seek engagement: A minor shooting incident on November 27 in the Demilitarized Zone notwithstanding, North Korea's response to the American hard line has been more muted than expected. Does this mean the Taliban's demise has scared Pyongyang? Maybe--but probably not enough to let America in on the secrets of the February 8 Vinalon Factory.

TERROR THREAT?

North Korea is one of seven nations on the U.S. State Department's list of terrorism sponsors. In 1983 it bombed the South Korean cabinet in Burma. In 1987 its agents bombed a South Korean airliner, killing 115 people. In recent years it has condemned terrorism and refrained from high-profile attacks. The State Department, though, says Pyongyang maintains links with terror groups.
U.S. within range of new N. Korea Missile Test 6/16/2006

The official agreed to speak but only on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

The official said the Bush administration is very concerned about activities that point toward a test, but declined to elaborate.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters that any missile launch by the North Koreans would be a provocation and would violate their 1999 commitment not to carry out such tests.

He had no comment on reports that a North Korea test launch may be in the offing.

Japanese and South Korean officials also have expressed concern in recent days about the reported North Korean missile launch activities. Kyodo News agency in Japan reported that an additional rocket section had arrived at a North Korean launch site within the past two days.

In Tokyo, the Japanese government responded to news reports about a possible test by warning that any such step would jeopardize the country's security.

The reports of a possible launch come after a prolonged hiatus in six-party nuclear disarmament talks designed to create a Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons.

Persistent efforts by the United States and other members of the group to persuade North Korea to resume the discussions have not been successful. There have been no discussions since last November.

North Korea is demanding that the United States revoke sanctions that Washington imposed several months ago in response to alleged North Korean counterfeiting of U.S. dollars and other currency violations.

McCormack reaffirmed on Friday that the United State strongly supports a resumption of the six-party talks.

Rice calls N. Korea missile threat 'provocative'

The warhead of a long-range missile test-fired by North Korea was found in the U.S. state of Alaska, a report to the National Assembly revealed yesterday.

``According to a U.S. document, the last piece of a missile warhead fired by North Korea was found in Alaska, former Japanese foreign minister Taro Nakayama was quoted as saying in the report. ``Washington, as well as Tokyo, has so far underrated Pyongyang missile capabilities.

The report was the culmination of month-long activities of the AssemblyÃƒÆ’Ã‚Â¢ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚Â¬ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¾Ã‚Â¢s overseas delegation to five countries over the North Korean nuclear crisis. The Assembly dispatched groups of lawmakers to the United States, Japan, China, Russia and European Union last month to collect information and opinions on the international issue.

Rice calls N. Korea missile threat 'provocative'

U.S. activates missile defense, may intercept N. Korea missile+

Many Americans in Missile Range Just Shrug

What, me worry? Many Americans in North Korea missile range respond with a shrug