GLOBAL WARMING? YES? NO?
Dee Finney's blog
start date July 20, 2011
today's date November 16, 2012
TOPIC: GLOBAL WARMING - YES? NO?
stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released... and
here is the chart to prove it
figures reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012
there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures
means that the ‘pause’in global warming has now lasted for about the
same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to
The world stopped getting warmer
almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week.
The figures, which have triggered
debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997
until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global
This means that the ‘plateau’ or
‘pause’ in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the
previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that,
temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.
global temperature changes
Research: The new figures mean that the 'pause' in global warming
has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when
temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. This picture shows an iceberg
melting in Eastern Greenland
The new data, compiled from more than
3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the
internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been
This stands in sharp contrast to the
release of the previous figures six months ago, which went only to the
end of 2010 – a very warm year.
Ending the data then means it is
possible to show a slight warming trend since 1997, but 2011 and the
first eight months of 2012 were much cooler, and thus this trend is
Wettest start to autumn for 12 years as South West continues to
be battered by torrential rain
Some climate scientists, such as
Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the
University of East Anglia, last week dismissed the significance of the
plateau, saying that 15 or 16 years is too short a period from which to
Others disagreed. Professor Judith
Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America’s
prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was
clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were
Even Prof Jones admitted that he and
his colleagues did not understand the impact of ‘natural variability’ –
factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the
output of the sun. However, he said he was still convinced that the
current decade would end up significantly warmer than the previous two.
Disagreement: Professor Phil Jones, left, from the University of
East Anglia, dismissed the significance of the plateau. Professor
Judith Curry, right, from Georgia Tech university in America,
disagreed, saying the computer models used to predict future warming
were ‘deeply flawed’
Warmer: Since 1880 the world has warmed by 0.75 degrees Celsius.
This image shows floating icebergs in Greenland
The regular data collected on global
temperature is called Hadcrut 4, as it is jointly issued by the Met
Office’s Hadley Centre and Prof Jones’s Climatic Research Unit.
Since 1880, when worldwide
industrialisation began to gather pace and reliable statistics were
first collected on a global scale, the world has warmed by 0.75 degrees
Some scientists have claimed that
this rate of warming is set to increase hugely without drastic cuts to
carbon-dioxide emissions, predicting a catastrophic increase of up to a
further five degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
The new figures were released as the
Government made clear that it would ‘bend’ its own carbon-dioxide rules
and build new power stations to try to combat the threat of blackouts.
At last week’s Conservative Party
Conference, the new Energy Minister, John Hayes, promised that ‘the
high-flown theories of bourgeois Left-wing academics will not override
the interests of ordinary people who need fuel for heat, light and
transport – energy policies, you might say, for the many, not the few’ –
a pledge that has triggered fury from green activists, who fear
reductions in the huge subsidies given to wind-turbine firms.
costs us dearly
Here are three not-so trivial
questions you probably won’t find in your next pub quiz. First, how much
warmer has the world become since a) 1880 and b) the beginning of 1997?
And what has this got to do with your ever-increasing energy bill?
You may find the answers to the first
two surprising. Since 1880, when reliable temperature records began to
be kept across most of the globe, the world has warmed by about 0.75
From the start of 1997 until August
2012, however, figures released last week show the answer is zero: the
trend, derived from the aggregate data collected from more than 3,000
worldwide measuring points, has been flat.
Surprising: News that the world has got no warmer for the past 16
years will come as something of a shock. This picture shows drifting
ice in Canada
Not that there has been any coverage
in the media, which usually reports climate issues assiduously, since
the figures were quietly release online with no accompanying press
release – unlike six months ago when they showed a slight warming trend.
The answer to the third question is
perhaps the most familiar. Your bills are going up, at least in part,
because of the array of ‘green’ subsidies being provided to the
renewable energy industry, chiefly wind.
They will cost the average household
about £100 this year. This is set to rise steadily higher – yet it is
being imposed for only one reason: the widespread conviction, which is
shared by politicians of all stripes and drilled into children at
primary schools, that, without drastic action to reduce carbon-dioxide
emissions, global warming is certain soon to accelerate, with truly
catastrophic consequences by the end of the century – when temperatures
could be up to five degrees higher.
Hence the significance of those first
two answers. Global industrialisation over the past 130 years has made
relatively little difference.
And with the country committed by Act
of Parliament to reducing CO2 by 80 per cent by 2050, a project that
will cost hundreds of billions, the news that the world has got no
warmer for the past 16 years comes as something of a shock.
It poses a fundamental challenge to
the assumptions underlying every aspect of energy and climate change
This ‘plateau’ in rising temperatures
does not mean that global warming won’t at some point resume.
But according to increasing numbers of
serious climate scientists, it does suggest that the computer models
that have for years been predicting imminent doom, such as those used by
the Met Office and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are
flawed, and that the climate is far more complex than the models assert.
‘The new data confirms the existence of
a pause in global warming,’ Professor Judith Curry, chair of the School
of Earth and Atmospheric Science at America’s Georgia Tech university,
told me yesterday.
‘Climate models are very complex, but
they are imperfect and incomplete. Natural variability [the impact of
factors such as long-term temperature cycles in the oceans and the
output of the sun] has been shown over the past two decades to have a
magnitude that dominates the greenhouse warming effect.
‘It is becoming increasingly apparent
that our attribution of warming since 1980 and future projections of
climate change needs to consider natural internal variability as a
factor of fundamental importance.’
Professor Phil Jones, director of the
Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, who found
himself at the centre of the ‘Climategate’ scandal over leaked emails
three years ago, would not normally be expected to agree with her. Yet
on two important points, he did.
The data does suggest a plateau, he
admitted, and without a major El Nino event – the sudden, dramatic
warming of the southern Pacific which takes place unpredictably and
always has a huge effect on global weather – ‘it could go on for a
Like Prof Curry, Prof Jones also
admitted that the climate models were imperfect: ‘We don’t fully
understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because
we don’t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is
now working to suppress the warming. We don’t know what natural
variability is doing.’
Headache: The evidence is beginning to suggest that global warming
may be happening much slower than the catastrophists have claimed -
a conclusion with enormous policy implications for politicians at
Yet he insisted that 15 or 16 years
is not a significant period: pauses of such length had always been
expected, he said.
Yet in 2009, when the plateau was
already becoming apparent and being discussed by scientists, he told a
colleague in one of the Climategate emails: ‘Bottom line: the “no upward
trend” has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.’
But although that point has now been
passed, he said that he hadn’t changed his mind about the models’ gloomy
predictions: ‘I still think that the current decade which began in 2010
will be warmer by about 0.17 degrees than the previous one, which was
warmer than the Nineties.’
Only if that did not happen would he
seriously begin to wonder whether something more profound might be
happening. In other words, though five years ago he seemed to be saying
that 15 years without warming would make him ‘worried’, that period has
now become 20 years.
Meanwhile, his Met Office colleagues
were sticking to their guns. A spokesman said: ‘Choosing a starting or
end point on short-term scales can be very misleading. Climate change
can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales due to the inherent
variability in the climate system.’
He said that for the plateau to last
any more than 15 years was ‘unlikely’. Asked about a prediction that the
Met Office made in 2009 – that three of the ensuing five years would set
a new world temperature record – he made no comment. With no sign of a
strong El Nino next year, the prospects of this happening are remote.
Why all this matters should be
obvious. Every quarter, statistics on the economy’s output and models of
future performance have a huge impact on our lives. They trigger a range
of policy responses from the Bank of England and the Treasury, and
myriad decisions by private businesses.
Yet it has steadily become apparent
since the 2008 crash that both the statistics and the modelling are
extremely unreliable. To plan the future around them makes about as much
sense as choosing a wedding date three months’ hence on the basis of a
long-term weather forecast.
Few people would be so foolish. But
decisions of far deeper and more costly significance than those derived
from output figures have been and are still being made on the basis of
climate predictions, not of the next three months but of the coming
century – and this despite the fact that Phil Jones and his colleagues
now admit they do not understand the role of ‘natural variability’.
The most depressing feature of this
debate is that anyone who questions the alarmist, doomsday scenario will
automatically be labelled a climate change ‘denier’, and accused of
jeopardising the future of humanity.
So let’s be clear. Yes: global
warming is real, and some of it at least has been caused by the CO2
emitted by fossil fuels. But the evidence is beginning to suggest that
it may be happening much slower than the catastrophists have claimed – a
conclusion with enormous policy implications.
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Wind-Whipped Rains Lift Venice Tide to 6th Highest
Published: Nov 12, 2012, 0:35 PM ESTAssociated
AP Photo/Luigi Costantini
People sit at the table of a bar in a flooded St.
Mark's Square in Venice, Italy, Sunday, Nov. 11,
VENICE, Italy -- Heavy rains and seas whipped up by strong
winds have flooded Venice and brought the lagoon city's high
tide mark to its sixth-highest level since records began being
kept 150 years ago.
Senior weather.com meterologist Jonathan Erdman says the
ultimate culprit for this is a deep, slow-moving upper-level
trough in the western Mediterranean Sea.
"As a result, southeast surface winds are blowing almost the
entire length of the Adriatic Sea, pushing water into Venice."
Erdman adds, "There is also, a stalled frontal boundary is
serving as a focus for heavy rain over central and northern
Italy, including parts of Tuscany."
WATCH VIDEO: WHO COULD LIVE LIKE THIS?
3 more die in Italy floods; Venice waters receding
Silvia Ognibene of Reuters
Four people have now died in Italy's floods after two men and a
woman, local electricity workers, were killed when their car
fell off a Tuscan bridge.
FLORENCE, Italy — Three people died when their car fell off a
collapsed bridge Tuesday, as flooding battered central Italy for
a third straight day, forcing part of Italy's main north-south
highway to close.
Water levels were receding, however, in Venice, the lagoon
city and Unesco world heritage site that at the weekend saw its
sixth-worst flooding since records began in 1872.
St. Mark's Square, one of the lowest lying areas of the city,
where some tourists were able to swim in high water Sunday, was
returning to normal, a city official said.
The flooding alert was now centered for the area north of
Rome, where officials feared the Tiber and Aniene rivers could
burst their banks in low-lying areas outside the centre of the
The center, however, was not expected to see damage because
of high embankment walls and because the capital itself had not
been hit by heavy rain for the past two days.
The two men and one woman who died in Tuscany were local
electricity workers. Their deaths brought the toll to four in
flooding that has damaged many homes and stores as well as
thousands of acres of farmland.
One of the hardest hit areas was the Maremma zone of southern
Tuscany, where flooding washed out many secondary roads, forced
hundreds of people to leave their homes, and isolated several
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The main A-1 highway was closed in parts of Tuscany, where it
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(Writing by James Mackenzie and Philip Pullella)
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GLOBAL WARMING - 2003 -
2004 - 2005 compiled by Dee Finney DO NOT . .....
suspect were caused by global warming and
the El Nino weather phenomenon, ...
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... for the APEC summit in
Singapore that next month's conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, is no
longer likely to yield a major accord to battle global warming.
Jun 27, 2001 –
About 23 million years ago, a huge ice sheet spread
over Antarctica, temporarily reversing a general trend of global
warming and decreasing ...
We have the phenomenon of "global
warming", which has been wrongly blamed on industrial
pollution. I am not, I stress, saying that pollution is a good
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