Mabus

Century II, Quatrain 62

Mabus then will soon die, there will come
A horrible undoing of people and animals:
At once vengeance one will see vengeance,
One hundred hands, thirst, famine, when the comet will run.

Nostradamus

Century II-Q46
After great trouble for humanity,
a greater one is prepared
The Great Mover renews the ages:
Rain, blood, milk, famine, steel and plague,
In the heavens fire seen, a long spark running.

Century 4:Q30

Eleven more times the Moon the Sun will not want,
All raised and lowered by degree:
And put so low that one will stitch little gold:
Such that after famine plague, the secret uncovered.

After seven years' famine foretold by Eliseus, the Sunamitess returning home, recovereth her lands, and revenues. Eliseus foreshoweth the death of Benadad, king of Syria, and the reign of Hazael. Joram's wicked reign in Juda. He dieth, and his son Ochozias succeedeth.

1 And Eliseus spoke to the woman, whose son he had restored to life, saying: Arise, and go thou, and thy household, and sojourn wheresoever thou canst find: for the Lord hath called a famine, and it shall come upon the land seven years. 2 And she arose, and did according to the word of the man of God: and going with her household, she sojourned in the land of the Philistines many days. 3 And when the seven years were ended, the woman returned out of the land of the Philistines, and she went forth to speak to the king for her house and for her lands. 4 And the king talked with Giezi, the servant of the man of God, saying: Tell me all the great things thatEliseus hath done. 5 And when he was telling the king how he had raised one dead to life, the woman appeared, whose son he had restored to life, crying to the king for her house, and her lands. And Giezi said: My lord, O king, this is the woman, and this is her son, whom Eliseus raised to life. 6 And the king asked the woman: and she told him. And the king appointed her an eunuch, saying: Restore her all that is hers, and all the revenues of the lands, from the day that she left the land to this present.

7 Eliseus also came to Damascus, and Benadad, king of Syria was sick; and they told him, saying: The man of God is come hither. 8And the king said to Hazael: Take with thee presents, and go to meet the man of God, and consult the Lord by him, saying: Can I recover of this my illness? 9 And Hazael went to meet him, taking with him presents, and all the good things of Damascus, the burdens of forty camels. And when he stood before him, he said: Thy son, Benadad, the king of Syria, hath sent me to thee, saying: Can I recover of this my illness? 10 And Eliseus said to him: Go tell him: Thou shalt recover: but the Lord hath showed me that he shall surely die. Tell him: thou shalt recover... By these words the prophet signified that the king's disease was not mortal: and that he would recover if no violence were used. Or he might only express himself in this manner, by way of giving Hazael to understand that he knew both what he would say and do; that he would indeed tell the king he should recover; but would be himself the instrument of his death. 11 And he stood with him, and was troubled so far as to blush: and the man of God wept. 12 And Hazael said to him: Why doth my lord weep? And he said: Because I know the evil that thou wilt do to the children of Israel. Their strong cities thou wilt burn with fire, and their young men thou wilt kill with the sword, and thou wilt dash their children, and rip up their pregnant women. 13 And Hazael said: But what am I, thy servant, a dog, that I should do this great thing? And Eliseus said: The Lord hath showed me that thou shalt be king of Syria. 14 And when he was departed from Eliseus he came to his master, who said to him: What said Eliseus to thee? And he answered: He told me: Thou shalt recover. 15 And on the next day, he took a blanket, and poured water on it, and spread it upon his face: and he died, and Hazael reigned in his stead.

16 In the fifth year of Joram, son of Achab, king of Israel, and of Josaphat, king of Juda, reigned Joram, son of Josaphat, king of Juda.And of Josaphat, etc... That is, Josaphat being yet alive, who sometime before his death made his son Joram king, as David had done before by his own son Solomon. 17 He was two and thirty years old when he began to reign, and he reigned eight years in Jerusalem. 18 And he walked in the ways of the kings of Israel, as the house of Achab had walked: for the daughter of Achab was his wife: and he did that which was evil in the sight of the Lord. 19 But the Lord would not destroy Juda, for David his servant's sake, as he hadpromised him, to give him a light, and to his children always. 20 In his days Edom revolted from being under Juda, and made themselves a king. 21 And Joram came to Seira, and all the chariots with him: and he arose in the night, and defeated the Edomites that had surrounded him, and the captains of the chariots, but the people fled into their tents. 22 So Edom revolted from being under Juda, unto this day. Then Lobna also revolted at the same time. 23 But the rest of the acts of Joram, and all that he did, are they not written in the book of the words of the days of the kings of Juda? 24 And Joram slept with his fathers, and was buried with them in the city of David, and Ochozias, his son, reigned in his stead.

25 In the twelfth year of Joram, the son of Achab, king of Israel, reigned Ochozias, son of Joram, king of Juda. 26 Ochozias was two and twenty years old when he began to reign, and he reigned one year in Jerusalem: the name of his mother was Athalia the daughter of Amri king of Israel. Daughter... That is, grand-daughter; for she was daughter of Achab son of Amri, verse 18. 27 And he walked in the ways of the house of Achab: and he did evil before the Lord, as did the house of Achab: for he was the son in law of the house ofAchab. 28 He went also with Joram, son of Achab, to fight against Hazael, king of Syria, in Ramoth Galaad, and the Syrians wounded Joram: 29 And he went back to be healed, in Jezrahel: because the Syrians had wounded him in Ramoth, when he fought against Hazael, king of Syria And Ochozias, the son of Joram, king of Juda, went down to visit Joram, the son of Achab, in Jezrahel, because he was sick there.

Ethanol Reshapes the Corn Market

According to the USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections (released in February 2006), the share of ethanol in total corn use will rise from 12 percent in ...
www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/ April06/Features/Ethanol.htm

Rats rampage Mizoram fuelling famine fears

05 April, 2008

Aizawl, : Thousands of rats are rampaging through rice and vegetable fields in India’s northeastern state of Mizoram, fuelling fears of a famine in the region even as international aid agencies have warned of a serious crisis unfolding in the mountainous border state. “Countless numbers of rats have raided paddy crops and vegetables, leading to serious problems in almost all the eight districts of the state,” C. Lalnithanga, a Mizoram government agriculture scientist and plant protection officer, told IANS.

A team of experts from ActionAid, an international anti-poverty agency, recently visited Mizoram to assess the damage caused by an army of rodents on the state’s agriculture. “Hundreds of families are facing food shortages. Some are barely eking out one meal a day. Crops including rice, maize and vegetables have been wiped out as flowering of bamboo in the region caused an explosion of rodent population,” a report by ActionAid said.

Mizoram Agriculture Minister H. Rammawi said reports of rats destroying farmlands follow vast forests of bamboo bursting into flower in many parts of the state. “Bamboo flowering and the subsequent invasion by rats on granaries and paddy fields in the region is a phenomenon that signals an impending catastrophe or a famine,” the minister said.

According to tribal legend, when bamboo flowers, famine, death and destruction follow. Behind the superstition lies some scientific truth, as blooming bamboo triggers an invasion of rats which proceed to eat away food supplies. “Rats multiply at a very rapid pace after eating the protein-rich seeds that appear soon after bamboo flowering,” Lalnithanga said. When the seeds are exhausted, armies of rats chomp their way through rice and potato crops and granaries, causing a famine.

Bamboo grows wildly in 6,000 sq km of Mizoram’s total geographical area of 21,000 sq km with the state, bordering Bangladesh and Myanmar, harvesting 40 percent of India’s 80-million-tonne annual bamboo crop. In 1958-59, a famine in the state of Mizoram resulted in the death of at least 100 people, besides heavy loss to human property and crops. The famine, locally known as Mautam, broke out after the state witnessed the rare phenomenon of bamboo flowering and an increase in rodent population that started emptying granaries and destroying paddy fields.

Historical accounts say Mizoram recorded a famine in 1862 and again in 1911 after the state witnessed similar bamboo flowerings. “The rare phenomenon of bamboo flowering is a cyclical one and occurs every 48 years and so 2007 is the year when a famine is going to hit the state. We are already facing a famine-like situation with locals now having to depend on rice imported from outside,” the minister said.
The state government has asked New Delhi to rush adequate stocks of food grain to tide over the crisis. Separatist insurgencies in the northeast first started after the Mautam famine in 1958-59, with the legendary guerrilla leader Laldenga forming the Mizo Famine Front, which finally led to the formation of the Mizo National Front, one of India’s most organised rebel armies.

The MNF waged a 20-year bush war against the Indian state for secession before signing a peace accord with New Delhi in 1986. The MNF is now a regional political party that heads the government in Mizoram led by former guerrilla leader Zoramthanga.

Ukrainian famine not a genocide

By Alexander Solzhenitsyn

April 5, 2008

FROM AS far back as 1917, we Soviet citizens had to hear and obediently swallow all sorts of shameless, not to say meaningless, lies. That the All-Russian Constituent Assembly was not an attempt at democracy but a counterrevolutionary scheme (and was therefore disbanded). Or that the October coup (this was Trotsky's brilliant maneuver) was not even an uprising, but self-defense from the aggressive Provisional Government (composed of the most intelligent Cadets).

But people in Western countries never became aware of these monstrous distortions of historical events - neither at the time nor later. So they had no chance to immunize themselves to the sheer impudence and scale of these lies.

The Great Famine of 1921 shook our country, from the Urals, across the Volga, and deep into European Russia. It cut down millions of our people. But the word "Holodomor" (death by hunger) was not used at that time. The Communist leadership deemed it sufficient to blame the famine on a natural drought, while failing to mention at all the grain requisitioning that cruelly robbed the peasantry.

In 1932 and 1933, when a similar Great Famine hit Ukraine and the Kuban region, the Communist Party bosses (including quite a few Ukrainians) treated it with the same silence and concealment. And it did not occur to anyone to suggest to the zealous activists of the Communist Party and Young Communist League that what was happening was the planned annihilation of the Ukrainians. The provocative outcry about "genocide" only began to be take shape decades later - at first quietly, inside spiteful, anti-Russian, chauvinistic minds - and now it has spun off into the government circles of modern-day Ukraine. Russia's parliament was correct this week to vote that the famine should not be considered genocide.

Still, defamation is easy to insinuate into Westerners' minds. They have never understood our history: You can sell them any old fairy tale, even one as mindless as this.

Soviet-era dissident Alexander Solzhenitsyn is a novelist and historian

Forest Incineration and Genocidal Practices in Zenawi´s Neo-Nazi ´Ethiopia´

Dr. Muhammad Shamsaddin Megalommatis
April 4, 2008

In what may be the first step to the final decomposition of Africa´s worst tyranny, namely the Neo-Nazi state of fake ´Ethiopia´, the deteriorating situation with regard to human health, food security, livelihoods, and livestock health, initially reported in Ogaden, spreads through vast past of the Oromia, Sidama Land, Shekacho Land and other occupied territories of the tyrannical.

A recent UN News release described the situation with accuracy, but for the time being there is no indication that the real causes of the impending humanitarian disaster have been correctly perceived by the international body – let alone dealt with.

(http://www.oromoliberationfront.org/PressReleases/Famine_not_only.pdf) sheds further light on the grave political – economic reasons that are to be found at the origin of this grave situation.

According to the enlightening Press Release, signed by Dawud Ibsaa, Chairman of the National Council of the OLF, Oromia is turning from breadbasket of Eastern Africa to deserted land, not because of "poorly performing rain", but due to the outrageous practices of national discrimination, utmost racism, premeditated destruction of the environmental conditions, and utter desecration of the lands of the Oromos.

Why occupied Oromia is starving

The basic reasons for which Oromia is exposed to starvation and ecological collapse are the following:

1. Extended intentional deforestation (under the pretext of search for Oromo rebels vast forests are being burnt down),

2. Disproportionate and unfair budget allocation to Oromia,

3. Imposed social decomposition, economic stagnation, and elimination of any unconditional Oromo private initiative,

4. Criminal destruction of the Oromo social structure (Gadaa system),

5. Interruption of delivery of fertilizers to Oromo farmers, under the pretext of support offered to the OLF, and

6. Illegal confiscation of assets and properties of NGOs (like the Oromo Relief Association / ORA).

All the practices bear witness to worldwide unacceptable policies of Neo-Nazi, discriminatory nature that cannot go unpunished. The international community should properly evaluate the heinous and antihuman acts of the Amhara – Tigray Abyssinian regime of Meles Zenawi, and drastically intervene to liberate Abyssinia´s subjugated nations, and save Africa´s environment from total collapse.

We republish here integrally the OLF Press Release, and call for immediate and resolute protestation in view of an international intervention in ´Ethiopia´. The Amhara – Tigray regime of forest incineration must get immediately eliminated, as Threat against the Mankind.

The Famine in Oromia: the Dry Season is Not the Only Culprit

Statement of the Oromo Liberation Front

Adda Bilisummaa Oromoo – Oromo Liberation Front

http://www.oromoliberationfront.org/PressReleases/Famine_not_only.pdf

The Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) is prompted to issue this statement in response to the statement by the UN's News release, dated March 28, 2008. The News Release reports, among others, that, "The deteriorating situation with regard to human health, food security, livelihoods, and livestock health, initially reported in Borne zone has spread to Bale, East Hararge, Guji and Liben zones of Oromia Region. Poorly performing rains for upcoming rainy season forecast by National Meteorological Agency are likely to exacerbate the exiting situation in lowland agro-pastoral areas of Oromia Region." The report predicts that, "An estimated 88, 000 people in affected woredas [districts] in Borana zone require emergency assistance from government, humanitarian partners and UN agencies." The News Release also warns of similar "emergence of hotspots in the SNNPR."

The OLF applauds the UN´s news release for bringing to the attention of the World Community the grim situation that Oromo people are facing at this difficult time and for calling for emergency assistance for those affected in Oromia and other parts of Ethiopia. The OLF leadership believes that no responsibility is greater and no calling nobler than saving the lives of our pastoralists and farmers who are victimized by forces beyond their control.

At the same time, the OLF would like to point out that the cause that the UN Report gives to the calamitous situation of the Oromo people as "poorly performing rain" is only a part of the truth. The other part of the truth is bad governance of the Ethiopian regime, which has made the lives of the Oromo truly miserable. What is more, the current Ethiopian regime, which is dominated by the Tigrayan People´s Liberation Front (TPLF), follows discriminatory and lopsided economic development policy in Oromia and other regional states in southern Ethiopia.

It is imperative to remember that since the Meles regime came to power in 1991"the effects of the dry season", the usual cause for famine in Ethiopia has shifted from Northern Ethiopia, in general, and Tigrai, in particular, to the Southern Ethiopia, in general, and Oromia, in particular. The Tigrai region, the home base of the Meles and the regime's ruling elites, that used to be known for drought and famine for several decades, is now boasting for unheard of all round economic progress. These days there are no warnings of famine concerning Tigrai. It is good news that Tigrai economy is progressing and the people Tigrai are no longer subjected to starvation like the Oromo.

At this point it is pertinent to ask why Oromia is starving while Tigrai is prospering? Since the creation of the modern Ethiopian empire in the 1880s Oromia has been known as the breadbasket of Ethiopia. More than sixty percent of Ethiopian government revenue comes from Oromia. Most of Ethiopian cash crops come from Oromia. Oromia, the Oromo regional state, is the most fertile part of Ethiopia, which enjoys abundant rainfall and has numerous rivers and lakes. With its hardworking farmers and abundant animal population Oromia always prided itself not only on its self-sufficiency in food production, but also produced surplus for the rest of Ethiopia and for international market.

Why is the same land now starving and needs humanitarian assistance of food? The answer is very clear. The root cause of the famine in Oromia is the TPLF regime´s policy towards Oromo people. Because the Oromo constitute almost forty-five percent of the population of Ethiopia, the TPLF, which represents less than seven percent of the population of Ethiopia, fears Oromo numerical strength. As a result the TPLF dominated Ethiopian regime follows the policies of destroying all independent Oromo organizations and impoverishing the Oromo people.

How does the TPLF regime impoverish the Oromo people? The regime follows well documented discriminatory economic policies. It provides disproportionate and unfair budget allocation to Oromia. It is this regime that has classified the educated and the entrepreneurial classes of the Oromo as enemies of its ´revolutionary democracy´ ideology. What is more, the regime has imposed gross human rights violations in Oromia, which forced tens of thousands of Oromo farmers to seek refuge in the neighboring countries in the Horn of Africa and beyond. Since it came to power in 1991, the current Ethiopian regime has dispossessed, displaced, and disenfranchised tens of thousands of the Oromo people, which is the real root cause for the underdevelopment and starvation in Oromia today.

As if its gross human rights violations in Oromia are not enough, the irresponsible and myopic TPLF regime has been engaged in an intentional deforestation of Oromia since it came to power. On the pretext of flushing out the OLF guerrilla fighters, the current Ethiopian authorities, intentionally set fire to Oromia's natural forest that is a cause for the fast degradation of Oromia´s ecological system. It is worthy of note that the most recent intentionally set fire to Oromia´s natural forest is that of the Shakiso forest of Bale zone destroying huge forests.

The OLF would like the UN and the world community to know that the TPLF regime is punishing the Oromo people for demanding their fundamental human rights. The regime deprived the supply of fertilizer to Oromo farmers for their alleged support of the OLF. It was with the intention of depriving the Oromo people a relief and development assistance that the TPLF regime banned the Oromo Relief Association (ORA) from legally functioning in the country. The regime also illegally confiscated ORA's assets and properties, including a ready for distribution relief and humanitarian aid. The TPLF regime has either withheld the humanitarian and development assistance provided by the Western World from the Oromo people or diverted it to the Tigrai region or used it for a provision of its armed and security forces.

Therefore, the OLF calls on the UN and other humanitarian agencies to directly help the needy Oromo and other people in Ethiopia. We also request that the UN and other humanitarian agencies make sure that the humanitarian aid that they provide reaches the needy people. The TPLF regime is totally discredited to be entrusted with the task of distributing humanitarian aid.

The OLF would like the UN and the world community to know that so long as the tyrannical regime of Meles Zenawi is in power, the World Community would continue to hear more alarming reports about the famine in Oromia and other parts of Ethiopia. What will end famine and gross human rights violations in Ethiopia will be the replacement of the current regime by a government that does not discriminate among its citizens, a government that does not pursue discriminatory economic development policies, a government that is accountable to the people, a government that honors the rule of law and human rights.

Finally, the Oromo people are struggling for their freedom and basic democratic rights- to life, liberty and pursuit of happiness. We call upon the Western World and all concerned governments and organizations to impress upon the Ethiopian government to immediately stop its gross human rights violations in Oromia and other parts of Ethiopia and to end without delay its discriminatory economic development policies, which are the main cause of famine in Oromia.

Victory to the Oromo People!

Dawud Ibsaa

Chairman, National Council of the OLF

In an Press Release, issued on March 31st, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)

author's email

author's web site

March 31, 2008

Government corruption fuels famine in Chin state

Solomon
Mizzima News
April 4, 2008

New Delhi , India - The ongoing acute food shortage in Chin state of western Burma is exacerbated through the corruption of local authorities, a Chin human rights group reports.

The Chin Human Rights Organization (CHRO) on Thursday said that the famine in Chin state, resulting from a scarcity of food, is worsened by local authorities who hinder and seize humanitarian aid intended for the local people.

CHRO said local authorities in Paletwa Township of Chin state in January seized more than 300 bags of rice donated by a Roman Catholic Church as relief aid for famine victims.

Besides this confiscation, another 150 bags on February of rice donated by the Church of the Province of Myanmar were also seized and sold for profit by the same local authorities.

"A mandatory purchasing order was imposed on residents of Paletwa by the authorities, instructing them to buy the seized rice at an overpriced rate," CHRO said in a statement released on Thursday.

Tera, a representative of CHRO based in India's Mizoram state bordering Burma, said, "The Chairman of the local township peace and development council led the seizure of rice bags and later resold the confiscated rice to local people at an overpriced rate."

While a bag of rice in a normal market costs approximately $16, authorities ordered locals to buy the seized rice at a rate of approximately $18 per bag, Tera added.

Since the beginning of 2008, people in Chin state have reportedly suffered from a dire shortage of food. According to Chin folklore, the famine occurs once every 50 years, when rats are released into the fields and consume all food.

Tera related that there are about 100 villages in Paletwa Township and about 600 villagers from more than 40 villages have fled to the Indian border seeking relief from the famine.

Victor Biak Lian, a member of CHRO's Board of Directors said, "This is very cruel action from the Burmese authority. Even if they refuse to help the local villagers, they should not add to their grievances."

He added that CHRO plans to come up with an alternative way to help people with food aid.

CHRO also called on the international community as well as humanitarian aid groups to come to the assistance of the Chin people, who are currently going hungry due to the confluence of famine and ongoing persecution from authorities.

Environmental hysterics
A skeptic weighs in

By David Deming
April 6, 2008

Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley recently warned that failure to take action on global warming could mean the extinction of the human race. Over the last few years, we've been repeatedly warned we are in the midst of a climate crisis that threatens our survival. Al Gore calls it a "planetary emergency."

We might take this concern more seriously if the doom-mongering wing of the environmental movement weren't burdened by a long history of false prophecies.

In the mid- to late-1960s, the leading environmental concern was overpopulation. The 1967 book "Famine 1975!" warned "by 1975 a disaster of unprecedented magnitude will face the world ... famines will ravage the undeveloped nations ... this is the greatest problem facing mankind." A sober review of the book in the scholarly journal Science characterized the prediction of mass starvation as "self-evident," argued that technological solutions were "unrealistic," and concluded that catastrophe was unavoidable. The reviewer concluded "all responsible investigators agree that the tragedy will occur."

More widely read was Paul Ehrlich's shrill screed, "The Population Bomb" (1968). Mr. Ehrlich began with the infamous words "the battle to feed all of humanity is over," and claimed that "in the 1970s ... hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death." "We must have population control," Mr. Ehrlich argued, because it is the "only answer."

Mr. Ehrlich followed "The Population Bomb" in 1969 with publication of the essay, "Eco-Catastrophe," in which he predicted the Green Revolution would fail and that the "ignorance" of the Cornucopian economists would be exposed. By 1980, environmental degradation would wipe out all "important animal life" in the world's oceans, people would choke to death from air pollution by the hundreds of thousands, and life expectancy in the United States would fall to 42 years. "Western society," Mr. Ehrlich proclaimed, "is in the process of completing the rape and murder of the planet for economic gain."

In 1975, the news media informed us that a new Ice Age was imminent. An article in the Chicago Tribune titled "B-r-r-r-r: New Ice Age on way soon?" noted "It's getting colder." The Tribune interpreted a number of ordinary weather events "as evidence that a significant shift in climate is taking place — a shift that could be the forerunner of an Ice Age." The New York Times chimed in, warning their readers that "a major cooling may be ahead." Famed science reporter Walter Sullivan announced "the world's climate is changing ... a new ice age is on the way."

Within 10 years, the imminent calamity of global cooling was replaced by global warming. And the mass famines predicted by Paul Ehrlich and others never happened.

From 1970 through 2000, the world's population grew from 3.7 billion to 6.1 billion. But the food supply grew faster. Between 1970 and 2000, per capita food increased by 15 percent. The problem today is not of famine but of too much food. Obesity is even becoming a problem in the developing world.

Better science and more reasonable voices preceded Mr. Ehrlich, but were ignored by a media fascinated with frenetic alarmism.

In 1960, ecologist Edward Deevey calmly predicted that the rapid growth in world population would be temporary. He was right. The growth rate of the world population peaked in the early 1960s and was already in decline when Mr. Ehrlich published "The Population Bomb" in 1968. Europe and Japan now have negative population growth, and the birthrate in developing countries is falling rapidly as these regions undergo a demographic transition.

It is apparent that world population will stabilize at 9 billion to 10 billion around the middle of this century.

None of the environmental catastrophes Mr. Ehrlich predicted occurred. Since 1970, the six principal air pollutants tracked by the Environmental Protection Agency have fallen significantly, even while U.S. population and energy use have grown. In 1990, Mr. Ehrlich's own ignorance was exposed when he lost a wager over the price of commodities to Cornucopian economist Julian Simon.

And the Green Revolution was a success. It has been estimated that the father of the Green Revolution, Norman Borlaug, singlehandedly saved the lives of a billion people. Higher crop yields from improved grain varieties also helped preserve the environment by limiting the need to convert undeveloped areas to arable land.

History repeats itself. So, please excuse my skepticism when you claim global warming means the end of the world is nigh. I have heard it all before.

David Deming is a geologist, an adjunct scholar with the National Center for Policy Analysis and associate professor of Arts and Sciences at the University of Oklahoma.

SEE:

POPULATION EXPLOSION - A PROBLEM TO SURVIVAL OF HUMAN EXISTENCE

It is ironic that a few years ago, when India's population crossed one billion, I wrote, “India's billion no cause for celebration,” and now I have to say ...
www.greatdreams.com/population.htm

Food riots fear after rice price hits a high

Shortages of the staple crop of half the world's people could bring unrest across Asia and Africa, reports foreign affairs editor Peter Beaumont

This article appeared in the Observer on Sunday April 06 2008 on p33 of the World news section. It was last updated at 00:03 on April 06 2008.

A global rice shortage that has seen prices of one of the world's most important staple foods increase by 50 per cent in the past two weeks alone is triggering an international crisis, with countries banning export and threatening serious punishment for hoarders.

With rice stocks at their lowest for 30 years, prices of the grain rose more than 10 per cent on Friday to record highs and are expected to soar further in the coming months. Already China, India, Egypt, Vietnam and Cambodia have imposed tariffs or export bans, as it has become clear that world production of rice this year will decline in real terms by 3.5 per cent. The impact will be felt most keenly by the world's poorest populations, who have become increasingly dependent on the crop as the prices of other grains have become too costly.

Rice is the staple food for more than half the world's population. This is the second year running in which production - which increased in real terms last year - has failed to keep pace with population growth. The harvest has also been hit by drought, particularly in China and Australia, forcing producers to hoard their crops to satisfy local markets.

The increase in rice prices - which some believe could increase by a further 40 per cent in coming months - has matched sharp inflation in other key food products. But with rice relied on by some eight billion people, the impact of a prolonged rice crisis for the world's poor - a large part of whose available income is spent on food - threatens to be devastating.

The consequences are visible across the globe. In Bangladesh, government-run outlets that sell subsidised rice have been besieged by queues comprised largely of the country's middle classes, who will queue for hours to purchase five kilograms of rice sold at 30 per cent cheaper than on the open market.

In Thailand yesterday - where the price for lower-quality rice alone has risen by between $70 and $100 per tonne in the past week alone - Deputy Prime Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan convened a meeting of key officials and traders yesterday to discuss imposing minimum export prices to control export volumes and measures to punish hoarders. The meeting follows moves by some larger supermarkets in Thailand to limit purchases of rice by customers.

In the Philippines, where the National Bureau of Investigation has been called in to raid traders suspected of hoarding rice to push up the prices, activists have warned of the risk of food riots.

Fear is so deep that the country's agricultural secretary, Arthur Yap, this month asked fast-food restaurants including McDonald's and KFC - which generally supply a cup of rice with their meals in Asian branches - to halve the amount of rice supplied, so that none would be wasted. In addition, traders who try to stockpile rice have been warned that they face a charge of 'economic sabotage', which in the Philippines carries a life sentence.

The shortage has afflicted India, too: on Monday, the government banned the export of non-basmati rice and also raised the price of basmati rice that can be exported.

And although China has said it is secure in its supplies of rice, the fact that the government has offered to pay farmers more to produce more rice and wheat suggests otherwise.

The sharp rise in rice prices has been driven by many factors, not least by a race between African and South-east Asian countries to secure sufficient stocks to head off the risk of food riots and social unrest.

Fears over the potential impact of the rice crisis has been heightened by estimates by both the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation - which has predicted the 3.5 per cent shortfall - and comments from the World Bank president, Robert Zoellick, on the organisation's website, estimating that '33 countries around the world face potential social unrest because of the acute hike in food and energy prices'.

According to the World Bank's figures, the real price of rice rose to a 19-year high last month, while the real price of wheat has hit a 28-year high.

Analysts have cited many factors for the rises, including rising fuel and fertiliser expenses, as well as climate change. But while drought is one factor, another is the switch from food to biofuel production in large areas of the world, in particular to fulfil the US energy demands. A continuing change in the global diet is also putting a further squeeze on rice. In China, for example, 100 million rural migrants to the country's big cities have switched from a staple of wheat to rice as they have become wealthier.

Rapid recent price increases are also likely to have a dangerous secondary effect of stoking further inflation in emerging countries, which are already suffering from record oil prices and surging agricultural commodity prices.

The depth of the crisis for the poorest was underlined in stark terms by the World Bank's managing director at a meeting of finance ministers from the Asian block. Juan José Daboub said governments needed to take steps to protect the poor and also ensure that long-term solutions were found to relieve shortages. 'In virtually every East Asian country, high food prices are raising headline inflation and contributing to a significant decline in the real income of the poor, most of whom spend a big chunk of their income on food,' he said last week.

PAKISTAN'S WHEAT CRISIS MAY EMERGE AGAIN DUE TO SUPPLY IMBALANCE
Tuesday, April 01, 2008; Posted: 02:37 AM

LAHORE, Apr 01, 2008 (AsiaPulse via COMTEX) -- -- The wheat crisis is looming ominously on the horizon and is expected to hit Pakistan once again by the end of this year because of an imbalance between supply and demand. The supply of this essential commodity will suffer because the sowing target witnessed a shortfall of about 15 to 20 per cent due to water shortage and the high cost of inputs. The issue of support price which has become bone of contention between growers and the government will further aggravate the supply situation.

The situation for Pakistan's new coalition government will be like that which prevailed in 1997 when the country faced a wheat crisis soon after the Nawaz Sharif regime assumed power.

Another worrisome factor this year is that the worldwide wheat crop situation is not also encouraging. Major wheat producing countries are experiencing shortfall in their targets. Australia, which is considered a major wheat producing country is facing a 40 per cent shortfall of wheat, said Abdul Majeed Nizamani, President Sindh Abadgar Board, a leading growers body of Sindh, when Money Plus contacted him.

Keeping in view the emerging scenario regarding a wheat shortage, he suggested that the first step that the government should take is to curb the menace of smuggling which always creates havoc in the supply of the staple food locally. Pakistani borders both in the East and the West are porous, so a huge quantity of wheat is smuggled every year to the neighbouring countries where the grain is also in short supply and more over, those involved in the illegal trade get a huge bonanza, said Mr Nizamani.

To discourage smuggling, he said the wheat prices should be brought at par with the prices of neighbouring countries, which on the one hand will help stop smuggling and on the other, encourage and give incentive to the farmers to grow more wheat. All over the world and even in neighbouring India, the wheat price is not less that Rs 1100 (US$17.50) per maund (40 kilograms), he said.

Another crucial measure the government should have to take is to discourage the hoarding. The unscrupulous elements exploit the situation for their personal gains, taking undue advantage of the loans provided by the State Bank for purchase of wheat.

Responding a query about domestic consumption of wheat, Mr Nizamani said that Pakistan needs 22 million tones of wheat for its domestic consumption annually. Out of this quantity, according to rough estimate, some 20 million tonnes of wheat is needed to feed a population of 160 to 180 million at the rate of 124 kg per capita, one million tones for seed and feed, while one million tonnes will cross into Afghanistan, he said.

When contacted to seek their views regarding on-going wheat support price controversy, representatives of the farming community rejected the Rs 510/40 kg minimum procurement price of wheat in the country terming it low and claimed that due to the low price, they will suffer losses ranging between Rs60 billion to Rs70 billion.

Dr. Bashir Nizamani, a leading grower of Sindh said that the growers spend an average of Rs 700 on 40-kg for producing wheat. This cost includes the prices of fertilizer, electricity, water rates and other inputs.

The new procurement price of Rs 510-per 40 kg will lead to loss of Rs 190-per 40 kg to the farmers, he calculated. He said average production of per acre wheat yield was 25-30 maunds.

Dr. Bashir Nizamani said that the government should have raised the wheat support price to at least Rs1000 per maund as against Rs 510. Giving a reason for the demand to increase the procurement price, he argued that the input cost of agriculture has reached a record level but growers were not getting proper returns due to the insufficient support price fixed by the government.

He demanded that keeping in mind input cost such as increasing prices of fertilizers, water rates and electricity charges, as well as the increasing trend of wheat prices in the international market, the procurement price should be revise and fixed at Rs800 per kg.

Dr. Bashir Nizamani cautioned however, that if government did rise to the occasion, the hoarders will buy wheat in huge quantities which may lead to another crisis with a price hike and shortage of the commodity later this year. He predicted that these circumstances may force the government to import around 4 million tonnes wheat.

When asked whether an increase in the wheat support price would result in an increase to the prices of nan-roti which would badly affected the common man, Abdul Majeed Nizamani, admitted that roti prices would increase but added that the expected negative affect could be countered by granting a Rs400 subsidy to consumers, while a Rs490 subsidy to the tillers of land will bring a burden to the national kitty to the tune of Rs.15 billion.

If the government failed to take cognizance of the situation, it will be forced to import 2.5 to 3 million tonnes at the rate to US$550 per tonne, he predicted.

Mr. Nizamani said the country's economic managers provided benefits to the growers of the others countries by importing around 1.7 million tonnes of wheat during the current fiscal year with an estimated cost of over US $1 billion. "Why they are not ready to increase the support prices for providing benefits to domestic growers," he asked.

It may be recalled here that the federal government has imported 0.7 million tonnes of wheat during the last two months because of an acute shortage of the commodity in Pakistan and an unprecedented hike in the price of flour. The government has spent Rs 1450 per 40 kg on imports of wheat and the commodity is being issued to flour millers at the subsidized rates of Rs 465 per 40 kg. This huge difference showed that government has been bearing a Rs1000 deficit on the supply of imported wheat to mills.

Last year, wheat was sown on almost the same area but with relatively better availability of water. But, during this Rabi, farmers are unable to provide first vital water to the crop as they are facing 28 per cent irrigation water shortage amidst reports of massive damage by termite in Barani areas. Moreover, an increase in the price of DAP fertilizer, which reached Rs1,900 to Rs 32,00 per bag this season compared to Rs850 and Rs900 last year, further aggravated the situation.

Pakistan has faced a severe wheat and atta flour crisis in the ongoing fiscal year despite achieving a bumper wheat crop of 23.3 million tones last year. The seriousness of the situation could be gauged from the long queues, which are still witnessed at utility stores as the commodity seems to have vanished from open market.

On the other hand, the blame game has started between flour mills and the retailers. The millers accused the retailers of overcharging consumers despite the fact that mills had increased the rates gradually and slowly. Now the new crop has already starting coming in Sindh and if better management is not adopted another crisis is waiting for the coalition government led by the PPP and PML (N) in the months ahead.

(THE NATION)

GMA: Probe corn shortage

By Doris C. Bongcac, Jhunnex Napallacan
Cebu Daily News
First Posted 03/29/2008

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has ordered the Department of Agriculture (DA) to look into the reported shortage of corn supply in Cebu.
She also directed the National Food Authority (NFA) to include distribution of corn products into NFA retail stores.

The two directives were issued during her speech before over 1,000 officials in the province who were gathered at the Cebu International Convention Center (CICC) in Mandaue City to show their support to the President.

The President basked in the welcome given to her by Cebu Gov. Gwendolyn Garcia and members of the Sangguniang Kabataan Federation Cebu province, Association of Barangay Captains, Philippine Councilors League, Vice Mayors League, League of Municipalities Cebu chapter and the Provincial Board Members League of the Philippines, which presented to her separate resolutions expressing their support. (See separate stories on page 2 and 4)

Speaking during the general assembly of Cebu local government officials at the CICC, Arroyo also gave assurances that the government would monitor the distribution of corn products in the country, including Cebu.

She said she would like to know whether hoarding by unscrupulous businessmen or wrong distribution triggered the shortage of corn here.

“Nabalaka ang ubang sector nga kulang ang supply sa bugas mais dinhi, so gisugo ko ang DA sa pag-imbestiga kun diin gikan kining pagkakulang sa bugas mais (Some sectors were worried about the lack of supply of corn grains here so I ordered the DA to investigate to determine the cause),” said Arroyo.

Cebu grain retailers earlier complained that they were feeling the shortage of supply in both rice and corn.

Teresa Alegado, national president of the Grain Retailers Confederation of the Philippines, said price of corn is increasing, which is an indication that the supply is running short.

She said the corn grains have become even more expensive than some rice varieties. A sack of 39 kilos of corn, which used to be sold at P600 to P650, is being sold at P1,000, she added.

While the government was looking into the cause of the reported corn shortage, Arroyo directed the inclusion of corn products in the NFA stores such as the Bigasan ni Gloria sa Palengke (BGP) and Tindahan Natin (TN) outlets.

“Gisugo ko sab ang NFA nga iapil ang bugas mais sa mga pagkaon nga ibaligya sa mga Tindahan Natin outlets nga naa na sa probinsya sama sa Sugbo diin ang katawhan mangita og bugas mais (I ordered the NFA to include corn grains as among the food items sold at the Tindahan Natin outlets in provinces like Cebu where the people look for corn grains),” she said.

“The best thing that we can do in the short term is to provide responsible targeted relief to those most in need,” she said.

Arroyo said increase in the prices of rice and other commodities, including fuel, is due to “global forces.”

But she assured that her administration is working to soften the “blow” brought about by the current global economic challenges in order to protect the poor.

For one, she said the NFA is keeping an eye on the distribution of rice in the country to prevent retailers from taking advantage of the rice shortage in order to earn more money.

She pointed out that when prices of commercial rice are high due to shortage of supply in the world market and the prices of the NFA are lower, “there is a big temptation to remove the low price and sell it at a high price.”

Arroyo vowed to ensure that there would be enough supply of corn and rice in the remaining two years of her term, which will end in 2010.

“So my last two years will be dedicated to the name of just service...invest...invest and invest some more in our nation,” she said.

Edgar Diez, NFA-7 enforcement and investigation officer, said that while corn grains are under the authority of the DA, he believed that there was no shortage of supply of the staple.

He said there could be a delay in the arrival of the shipment from General Santos, Davao and Cagayan de Oro.

The NFA is monitoring the over 300 BGPs and TNs in Metro Cebu and province following reports of rice shortage in some areas.

The BGPs can be found in public markets while TNs are stores in urban poor barangays. These outlets are exclusive distributors of NFA rice, which means that they are not allowed to sell commercial rice.

The NFA has suspended the permits to operate of 10 NFA retailers in Cebu pending investigation on allegations of unreasonable depletion of supply and refusal to sell NFA rice.

These are three BGP outlets in Tudela town on Camotes Island; and one BGP outlet and one TN outlet in barangay Pardo, one TN outlet in B. Rodriguez Street, another TN outlet in barangay Lahug, one BGP outlet in Talamban and two TN outlets in Mabolo, all in Cebu City.

Diez said that based on monitoring of NFA employees and complaints from consumers, these outlets were found to have depleted their supply and have refused to sell by shutting down their stores.

The NFA in Central Visayas has hired 137 job-order employees to monitor all BGP and TN outlets in Metro Cebu and province.

Diez cited the case of a BGP outlet in Pardo.

He said the NFA supplied 40 bags of NFA rice on March 14, which were supposed to last for two weeks or until March 28.

The NFA supplies between 20 and 25 bags of rice a week to each BGP or TN outlets. In small towns, the allocation is reduced to 10 bags per week.

Diez said the owner of the BGP outlet in Pardo closed down on Monday because it had run out of supply. The owner told NFA officials that some consumers bought at least five kilos of rice each.

Diez, however, said each BGP and TN outlet is allowed to sell only one to three kilos of rice per customer.

The same thing happened in TN outlet in Mabolo – it closed down after it ran out of supply.

In the case of the BGP outlets in Tudela and in Talamban, the NFA team discovered that owners did not display the NFA rice supplied to them.

Diez said the owners of the affected outlets would be asked to answer the allegations during a formal investigation that would be conducted by his office.

If the allegations were proven true, Diez said these outlet owners would face administrative sanctions that include cancellation of their NFA permits.

This means that they can never sell NFA and commercial rice. They may also be made to pay a fine ranging from P1,000 to P15,000 depending on the gravity of the violations.

Diez said his office revalidated passbook of rice retailers to ensure no one had two passbooks.

Rice retailers use passbooks to withdraw and pay sacks of rice taken from the NFA warehouses.

Diez said that in revalidating the passbooks, the retailers are required to go to their office. The NFA inspector also inspects the licenses of the retailers.

The revalidation of the passbook started last January as ordered by the NFA national office as a measure to prevent possible hoarding of rice, said Diez.

“So far, we have not yet encountered rice retailers who own more than two passbooks,” Diez told . With reports from Correspondent Chris Ligan, Reporter Nilda Gallo and Inquirer

Not food versus fuel but food and fuel
7 Apr, 2008, 0327 hrs IST,Kushagra Bajaj,

There is a growing apprehension the world over about food inflation. The price of wheat has been steadily rising from last year. Australia, the world’s wheat granary, has been reeling under an unusual drought for the past eight years, the longest spell that the country has faced in the last two centuries. This by itself is straining global wheat supplies.

Adverse weather conditions in Europe and North Africa have further aggravated the shortage of major food crops, specially wheat, and depleted their stocks to record low levels. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that wheat production can drop by 10% to 142.6 million tonnes in 2008, as compared to 2007.

The price of corn in the US has doubled in the past one year. This is partly attributed to the diversion of increasing amounts of corn to the production of green fuel, ethanol. During 2006-07 America used an estimated 20% of its corn crop to produce five billion gallons of ethanol, twice the amount it used in 2002-03. The figure is projected to double again over the next two years. In 2006, 20% of the US maize crop was used to manufacture ethanol. This will increase to 32% by 2016.

Internationally, the price of crude oil continues to spiral and is now hovering around US $100 a barrel. This is boosting the demand for bio-fuels. President George W Bush has spelt out America’s goal of achieving a production level of 35 billion gallons of renewable fuels a year within the next 10 years. Europe wants 5.75% of its diesel to come from plants by 2010. China is using even rice and wheat, apart from corn, to produce ethanol. The commodity strategist of Merrill Lynch, Mr Francisco Blanch, points out that gasoline prices would have been 15% higher today but for the increase in the production of bio-fuels over the past one year.

The key question is: in the quest for workable biological fuels, and the consequent shift of increasing land area to the cultivation of sugarcane, corn, wheat and rice to make green fuel ethanol, are we creating a global foodgrain shortage and inflation?

Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, warns of a coming “epic competition between 800 million people with automobiles and the two billion poorest people” for whom nourishment will be out of reach. He predicts that food shortages and food price inflation will lead to famines, starvation and riots.

Mr S M Idris, chairman of the environmental group Sahabat Alam Malaysia (Friends of the Earth), describes the conversion of forests into oil-palm plantations in countries like Malaysia and Indonesia as “technology gone mad”.

India’s finance minister, Mr P Chidambaram, has also understandably expressed concern over the increasing diversion of food crops to meet fuel needs. “It is a sign of the lopsided priorities of certain countries that they will resort to measures that will produce fuel at a cheaper cost in order to meet the transport requirements of a section of their population, even while a larger proportion of the world’s population is deprived of food at reasonable prices, or in the case of some countries, deprived of food altogether,” he observed at a lecture in Singapore.

But is it really a black-or-white question? Is it actually an issue of food versus fuel? Can we not have both food and fuel? And both in plenty? Stanford University biologist Chris Somerville has calculated that with the right plants, just 3.5% of the earth’s surface can supply all of humanity’s energy needs, compared to the 13% now used for agriculture.

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BREAD FROM THE BIBLE
16 When I shall send upon them the evil arrows of famine, which shall be for [their] destruction, [and] which I will send to destroy you: and I will ...
www.greatdreams.com/sacred/bread_bible.htm

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